By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-23,324 contracts) with Silver (-7,085 contracts), Platinum (-6,502 contracts), Palladium (-1,214 contracts), Steel (-261 contracts) and Copper (-69 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (95 percent) and Platinum (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
Silver (84 percent), Gold (77 percent), Palladium (75 percent) and Copper (55 percent) all are in bullish levels and above their midpoint 3-Year scores currently (above 50 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (77.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (86.0 percent)
Silver (83.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.5 percent)
Copper (55.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.3 percent)
Platinum (84.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (100.0 percent)
Palladium (75.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (84.0 percent)
Steel (94.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.7 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (22 percent) and Steel (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
Gold (-23 percent), Silver (-11 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-22.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.9 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.7 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.8 percent)
Platinum (11.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (22.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (33.3 percent)
Steel (12.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.4 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 60.4 | 13.1 | 9.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.6 | 63.9 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | 255,329 | -283,059 | 27,730 |
| – Gross Longs: | 336,816 | 73,287 | 52,637 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 81,487 | 356,346 | 24,907 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.1 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.2 | 20.4 | 71.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.8 | 20.4 | 12.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.0 | 20.1 | 20.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.7 | 69.2 | 6.4 |
| – Net Position: | 53,346 | -74,243 | 20,897 |
| – Gross Longs: | 73,980 | 30,347 | 30,527 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 20,634 | 104,590 | 9,630 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.6 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 3.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.6 | 12.3 | 71.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.2 | 8.4 | 6.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.5 | 32.9 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.1 | 46.5 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | 23,670 | -34,211 | 10,541 |
| – Gross Longs: | 101,996 | 82,982 | 20,008 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 78,326 | 117,193 | 9,467 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 55.3 | 41.0 | 81.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.8 | 4.7 | 24.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 65.2 | 17.0 | 11.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.3 | 58.8 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 29,041 | -35,774 | 6,733 |
| – Gross Longs: | 55,780 | 14,515 | 9,736 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,739 | 50,289 | 3,003 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 3.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.6 | 12.7 | 68.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.0 | -14.0 | 24.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.0 | 44.4 | 12.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 55.0 | 30.3 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | -3,667 | 2,591 | 1,076 |
| – Gross Longs: | 6,398 | 8,128 | 2,341 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,065 | 5,537 | 1,265 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 75.1 | 22.5 | 85.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 22.5 | -28.8 | 47.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.6 | 68.2 | 1.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.3 | 67.1 | 0.7 |
| – Net Position: | -414 | 286 | 128 |
| – Gross Longs: | 6,792 | 17,382 | 308 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,206 | 17,096 | 180 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 94.7 | 5.7 | 46.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.9 | -13.0 | 3.1 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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