By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds (15,980 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (6,123 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (4,701 contracts) also seeing small positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-113,816 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-91,701 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-61,073 contracts), the Fed Funds (-57,577 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-23,473 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-14,477 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (100 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week.
On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 10-Year Bonds (22 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (36 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (30.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (71.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (68.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (93.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (36.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (35.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (44.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (47.9 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-45.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-44.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-15.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-20.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-22.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (24.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (22.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (14.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-43.1 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.5 | 66.3 | 1.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 63.0 | 2.1 |
| – Net Position: | -55,140 | 57,093 | -1,953 |
| – Gross Longs: | 144,425 | 1,126,402 | 32,994 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 199,565 | 1,069,309 | 34,947 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.4 | 52.4 | 81.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -45.6 | 43.0 | 19.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.3 | 58.3 | 0.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.0 | 55.4 | 0.5 |
| – Net Position: | -300,954 | 319,102 | -18,148 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,462,583 | 6,428,182 | 35,198 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,763,537 | 6,109,080 | 53,346 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.7 | 56.1 | 77.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -34.6 | 35.8 | -12.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOFR 1-Month Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.7 | 64.3 | 0.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.5 | 53.6 | 0.0 |
| – Net Position: | -130,957 | 131,159 | -202 |
| – Gross Longs: | 167,017 | 782,983 | 230 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 297,974 | 651,824 | 432 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.2 | 63.8 | 54.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 22.5 | -22.6 | 3.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.0 | 78.5 | 6.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.3 | 50.6 | 2.6 |
| – Net Position: | -1,447,344 | 1,288,654 | 158,690 |
| – Gross Longs: | 508,805 | 3,626,185 | 276,844 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,956,149 | 2,337,531 | 118,154 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 2.5 | 96.6 | 86.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.1 | 18.7 | -9.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.0 | 82.7 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.2 | 55.3 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | -1,983,026 | 1,861,574 | 121,452 |
| – Gross Longs: | 407,669 | 5,621,654 | 429,703 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,390,695 | 3,760,080 | 308,251 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 75.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.4 | 29.1 | -13.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.9 | 78.1 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.0 | 60.1 | 8.2 |
| – Net Position: | -907,502 | 856,303 | 51,199 |
| – Gross Longs: | 424,509 | 3,710,545 | 442,533 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,332,011 | 2,854,242 | 391,334 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.3 | 83.6 | 75.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.0 | 6.2 | -23.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.8 | 74.4 | 9.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.4 | 63.3 | 13.2 |
| – Net Position: | -171,268 | 249,454 | -78,186 |
| – Gross Longs: | 312,413 | 1,678,313 | 219,354 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 483,681 | 1,428,859 | 297,540 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.2 | 68.0 | 65.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.7 | 30.1 | -3.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.9 | 59.5 | 10.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.6 | 61.3 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -35,645 | -36,093 | 71,738 |
| – Gross Longs: | 430,752 | 1,226,901 | 209,744 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 466,397 | 1,262,994 | 138,006 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.1 | 16.7 | 68.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.1 | -3.6 | -20.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.1 | 77.2 | 10.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.4 | 65.7 | 9.2 |
| – Net Position: | -225,304 | 210,507 | 14,797 |
| – Gross Longs: | 166,467 | 1,410,459 | 183,468 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 391,771 | 1,199,952 | 168,671 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 26.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 24.6 | -27.4 | -2.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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