By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were strongly higher this week as all six metals markets we cover had higher positioning.
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Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,448 contracts) with Gold (5,324 contracts), Silver (3,900 contracts), Platinum (2,423 contracts), Palladium (267 contracts) and Steel (137 contracts) rounding out the positive weeks.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (100 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (83 percent) and Steel (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
Palladium (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.0 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (94.8 percent)
Copper (64.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.6 percent)
Platinum (83.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.7 percent)
Palladium (52.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (50.7 percent)
Steel (81.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.3 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (40 percent) and Platinum (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (23 percent), Gold (18 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data with Steel (8 percent) also showing a positive trend.
Move Statistics:
Gold (18.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (27.1 percent)
Silver (22.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.3 percent)
Copper (16.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.1 percent)
Platinum (33.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.2 percent)
Palladium (40.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (45.8 percent)
Steel (8.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.5 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 68.6 | 13.6 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.8 | 73.7 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 315,390 | -339,706 | 24,316 |
| – Gross Longs: | 387,572 | 76,713 | 53,444 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 72,182 | 416,419 | 29,128 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.4 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 58.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 18.3 | -17.0 | -3.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 54.0 | 19.6 | 20.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.5 | 74.1 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | 62,198 | -81,832 | 19,634 |
| – Gross Longs: | 81,029 | 29,339 | 30,059 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 18,831 | 111,171 | 10,425 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.3 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 2.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 3.3 | 65.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 22.6 | -16.8 | -9.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 42.6 | 30.8 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.9 | 48.3 | 5.8 |
| – Net Position: | 33,130 | -39,627 | 6,497 |
| – Gross Longs: | 96,262 | 69,639 | 19,602 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,132 | 109,266 | 13,105 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.1 | 36.3 | 57.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.1 | -13.1 | -12.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 61.3 | 20.9 | 12.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.9 | 60.2 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 24,401 | -29,540 | 5,139 |
| – Gross Longs: | 46,103 | 15,715 | 9,020 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 21,702 | 45,255 | 3,881 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.2 | 12.8 | 43.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.3 | -29.1 | -24.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.9 | 55.7 | 9.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 66.4 | 20.8 | 9.2 |
| – Net Position: | -6,733 | 6,631 | 102 |
| – Gross Longs: | 5,867 | 10,572 | 1,856 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,600 | 3,941 | 1,754 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.6 | 51.3 | 38.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 40.3 | -36.0 | -21.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.1 | 73.0 | 1.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.0 | 59.5 | 1.0 |
| – Net Position: | -3,786 | 3,686 | 100 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,111 | 19,891 | 385 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,897 | 16,205 | 285 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.9 | 18.7 | 43.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.1 | -8.8 | 18.2 |
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