By ForexTime
Released back on August 2nd, the July US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% – its highest since 2021!
The spike in the US jobless rate triggered fears that the Federal Reserve may be too late to prevent a recession in the world’s largest economy.
The July unemployment rate figure also officially triggered the “Sahm rule” – a historically accurate predictor of US recessions.
Such heightened recession fears triggered wild swings across global financial markets.
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On August 2nd, 2024:
Recall also how the previous US jobs report then triggered the violent unwinding of the Yen carry trade, with the Bank of Japan set to hike interest rates against the Fed that may have to cut US interest rates at a faster clip.
The following Monday, August 5th, the S&P 500 fell 3% on to record its biggest one-day drop since 2022!
Although the markets have since found relative calm, the volatility from not too long ago is sure to frame the minds of investors and traders worldwide during the upcoming week’s events:
Monday, September 2
Tuesday, September 3
Wednesday, September 4
Thursday, September 5
Friday, September 6
NOTE: The US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report is typically released on the first Friday of each month.
In the 6 hours following the NFP releases from the past 12 months:
Ultimately, the markets reactions this time round will be determined by the official numbers released at 12:30 PM GMT on Friday, as they pertain to the size of the Fed rate cut in September.
Here’s what economists are forecasting for the August US nonfarm payrolls report that’ll be released on September 6th:
As mentioned at the start of this article, much of the focus is set to fall on the unemployment rate, which had reached its highest level (4.3%) since 2021 and fulfilled the “Sahm rule” criteria for a US recession.
Also, this incoming US jobs report has taken on increased significance, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary out of Jackson Hole last Friday, August 23rd:
“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions”.
Chair Powell also said that the “time has come” for the Fed to start cutting interest rates, likely at the next FOMC meeting in mid-September, while stating that the slowdown in US hiring has been “unmistakable”.
In short, this upcoming US jobs report is set to heavily influence the Fed’s decision on how much to cut interest rates at its mid-September FOMC meeting.
– US500 index on course for a new record high at 5678 or higher
– US Dollar index (USDInd) to test resistance around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA)
– Gold on course for a new record high above the existing all-time peak of $2531.75
– US500 dragged down to the 5,500 psychological level, testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for support.
– US Dollar index (USDInd) plummeting to the 100.00 mark, confirming its recent “death cross” (50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on August 26th)
– Gold dragged briefly into sub-$2500 level to test its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) for support before rebounding back towards its all-time peak of $2531.75.
NOTE: All levels cited above, and the charts below, are published prior to release of another keenly watched event, the US PCE Deflators – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – due 12:30PM today (Friday, August 30th).
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