COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Russell 2000 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (11,846 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (10,059 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,885 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (2,895 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,641 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (538 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the VIX with a drop by -5,880 contracts on the week.

---

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

---

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (82 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (82.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (88.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (56.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (65.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (32.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.4 percent)

---

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (29 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (24 percent) and the Russell-Mini (23 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (34.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (39.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-11.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (24.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (22.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (29.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (20.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-10.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)

---

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	47.4	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	39.8	6.9
– Net Position:	-30,472	29,737	735
– Gross Longs:	72,728	185,078	27,820
– Gross Shorts:	103,200	155,341	27,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	12.4	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-37.3	9.8

 

---

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -81,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	68.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	70.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-81,908	-29,163	111,071
– Gross Longs:	302,165	1,442,162	269,396
– Gross Shorts:	384,073	1,471,325	158,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	35.9	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.1	3.4

 

---

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	57.0	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.7	13.8
– Net Position:	8,369	-10,461	2,092
– Gross Longs:	22,190	51,139	14,450
– Gross Shorts:	13,821	61,600	12,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	23.1	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	10.4	-1.7

 

---

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	53.4	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	68.2	10.8
– Net Position:	21,440	-36,200	14,760
– Gross Longs:	65,461	130,557	41,117
– Gross Shorts:	44,021	166,757	26,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	12.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-19.4	3.7

 

---

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	74.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	74.0	4.4
– Net Position:	-15,281	-326	15,607
– Gross Longs:	66,764	311,806	34,344
– Gross Shorts:	82,045	312,132	18,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	20.3	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-22.9	12.3

 

---

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	61.4	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	51.7	19.7
– Net Position:	-1,853	1,288	565
– Gross Longs:	1,939	8,134	3,180
– Gross Shorts:	3,792	6,846	2,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	35.4	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-10.5	-37.0

 

---

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	89.6	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	83.1	1.4
– Net Position:	-33,678	26,158	7,520
– Gross Longs:	27,770	362,277	13,219
– Gross Shorts:	61,448	336,119	5,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	63.3	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.0	1.5

 

---

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.