COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Russell 2000 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,809 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,742 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,067 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-43,203 contracts), the VIX (-8,053 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,559 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-423 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

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Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (73 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Russell-Mini (37 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Nikkei 225 (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (48.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (57.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (63.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (55.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (37.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (39.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.0 percent)

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Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only market with a positive reading for the stock markets.

The Nikkei 225 (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-24 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-20.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-2.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-7.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-24.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-26.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-26.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-18.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.2 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -61,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	47.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	34.2	6.1
– Net Position:	-61,478	61,231	247
– Gross Longs:	87,842	221,430	28,736
– Gross Shorts:	149,320	160,199	28,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	46.8	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	21.8	-5.4

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -43,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	70.0	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	72.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-55,011	-43,078	98,089
– Gross Longs:	309,758	1,434,315	266,655
– Gross Shorts:	364,769	1,477,393	168,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	34.0	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.7	-4.1

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	55.2	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	67.7	11.6
– Net Position:	7,795	-11,061	3,266
– Gross Longs:	22,317	48,737	13,525
– Gross Shorts:	14,522	59,798	10,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	22.2	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	9.6	-6.5

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	56.1	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.0	12.1
– Net Position:	5,217	-15,719	10,502
– Gross Longs:	66,337	148,257	42,436
– Gross Shorts:	61,120	163,976	31,934
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	35.3	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-9.9	0.2

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -67,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	79.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	66.5	4.1
– Net Position:	-67,626	58,789	8,837
– Gross Longs:	55,367	356,460	27,196
– Gross Shorts:	122,993	297,671	18,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	58.2	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	20.4	6.8

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	65.5	28.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	44.5	18.2
– Net Position:	-4,792	3,218	1,574
– Gross Longs:	925	10,030	4,358
– Gross Shorts:	5,717	6,812	2,784
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	48.9	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	22.1	-0.2

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -24,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	84.8	1.8
– Net Position:	-24,608	19,568	5,040
– Gross Longs:	31,004	378,665	12,714
– Gross Shorts:	55,612	359,097	7,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	57.1	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	0.8	-2.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.