Speculator Extremes: Silver, Peso & Coffee lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 53,212 net contracts this week with a slight rise of 65 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 22.5 this week. The speculator position registered 139,691 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 5,961 contracts in speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 21.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 73,563 net contracts this week with a gain of 6,081 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 99.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 41.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 83,347 net contracts this week with a small dip of -376 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 91.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.3 this week.

The speculator position was -1,271 net contracts this week with a decline of -557 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -162,151 net contracts this week with a sharp drop by -18,921 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is also at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -43.7 this week. The speculator position was -31,764 net contracts this week with a decrease by -9,394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,142 net contracts this week with a rise by 754 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 8.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.3 this week. The speculator position was -158,477 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -437 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 9.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.3 this week. The speculator position was -190,191 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,855 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.