COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (91,317 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (1,921 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (86 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were  the VIX (-6,429 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,417 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-626 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is currently the only market with a score below 50 percent (the midpoint of the past three years of positions).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (39.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (69.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (69.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (57.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (58.2 percent)

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MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (21 percent), the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-12.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (7.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (20.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-47.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-60.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (8.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (5.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.6 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -50,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	45.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	31.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,331	53,551	-3,220
– Gross Longs:	67,410	168,474	27,253
– Gross Shorts:	117,741	114,923	30,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.1	6.1

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 91,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -169,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	70.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-78,122	-20,612	98,734
– Gross Longs:	290,089	1,476,688	275,700
– Gross Shorts:	368,211	1,497,300	176,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	37.1	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-22.6	9.3

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	49.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	70.3	11.9
– Net Position:	16,595	-19,811	3,216
– Gross Longs:	32,106	45,901	14,377
– Gross Shorts:	15,511	65,712	11,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	9.5	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	5.1

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	57.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	58.1	13.3
– Net Position:	-5,195	-1,570	6,765
– Gross Longs:	65,399	149,038	41,324
– Gross Shorts:	70,594	150,608	34,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	50.8	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.7	33.8	-0.3

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	76.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	-22,173	11,733	10,440
– Gross Longs:	74,238	363,074	30,378
– Gross Shorts:	96,411	351,341	19,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	28.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-5.1	20.1

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 86 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	69.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	67.9	12.5
– Net Position:	-2,506	275	2,231
– Gross Longs:	863	11,962	4,386
– Gross Shorts:	3,369	11,687	2,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	36.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-11.5	10.4

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	88.5	1.3
– Net Position:	-8,405	2,328	6,077
– Gross Longs:	34,826	393,315	11,626
– Gross Shorts:	43,231	390,987	5,549
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.5	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-23.8	2.2

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.