By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (12,663 contracts) with Platinum (11,783 contracts), Copper (10,754 contracts), Gold (10,309 contracts) and Palladium (2,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The only metals market with declines in speculator bets was Steel with a reduction by -560 contracts on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Palladium (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.6 percent)
Silver (81.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.6 percent)
Copper (46.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (33.9 percent)
Platinum (35.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.0 percent)
Palladium (17.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.5 percent)
Steel (87.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.9 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (30 percent), Gold (24 percent) and Copper (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Platinum (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-0.2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (24.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.8 percent)
Silver (29.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.1 percent)
Copper (15.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.5 percent)
Platinum (-10.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.2 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.9 percent)
Steel (-0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.0 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 54.9 | 25.1 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.8 | 67.4 | 6.1 |
| – Net Position: | 201,602 | -218,273 | 16,671 |
| – Gross Longs: | 283,062 | 129,432 | 47,992 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 81,460 | 347,705 | 31,321 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.5 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.3 | 36.2 | 27.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 24.2 | -19.5 | -19.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.4 | 28.4 | 19.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.1 | 66.5 | 9.5 |
| – Net Position: | 40,978 | -55,130 | 14,152 |
| – Gross Longs: | 67,094 | 40,997 | 27,826 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,116 | 96,127 | 13,674 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.9 | 24.2 | 45.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 29.8 | -21.8 | -12.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.8 | 31.6 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.4 | 35.0 | 6.8 |
| – Net Position: | 5,427 | -7,445 | 2,018 |
| – Gross Longs: | 87,439 | 69,378 | 17,050 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 82,012 | 76,823 | 15,032 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.0 | 57.4 | 31.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.7 | -15.0 | 4.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 51.9 | 23.6 | 10.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.3 | 38.7 | 4.2 |
| – Net Position: | 7,419 | -13,041 | 5,622 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,716 | 20,286 | 9,273 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 37,297 | 33,327 | 3,651 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 35.9 | 63.3 | 43.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.5 | 9.1 | 1.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.3 | 62.7 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 76.2 | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| – Net Position: | -10,581 | 10,743 | -162 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,645 | 12,517 | 1,427 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 15,226 | 1,774 | 1,589 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 7.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.7 | 86.4 | 32.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.7 | 2.6 | -33.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.2 | 84.7 | 1.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.8 | 75.4 | 0.9 |
| – Net Position: | -2,237 | 2,165 | 72 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,153 | 19,748 | 290 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 4,390 | 17,583 | 218 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 87.8 | 12.9 | 40.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.2 | 0.7 | -14.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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