By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (6,867 contracts) with Steel (732 contracts) and Palladium (584 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-24,589 contracts) with Silver (-4,761 contracts) and Platinum (-4,710 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
| Oct-03-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 431,226 | 4 | 91,226 | 17 | -111,982 | 81 | 20,756 | 32 |
| Silver | 125,847 | 14 | 15,344 | 40 | -30,358 | 57 | 15,014 | 50 |
| Copper | 208,795 | 49 | -21,912 | 12 | 19,952 | 88 | 1,960 | 31 |
| Palladium | 18,421 | 86 | -9,718 | 9 | 9,861 | 93 | -143 | 33 |
| Platinum | 81,529 | 85 | 2,616 | 22 | -7,514 | 78 | 4,898 | 34 |
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (65 percent) and Silver (40 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
On the downside, Palladium (9 percent), Copper (12 percent) and Gold (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (17.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (28.0 percent)
Silver (40.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.9 percent)
Copper (11.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.0 percent)
Platinum (21.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.5 percent)
Palladium (8.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (65.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.9 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (4 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Steel (-6 percent), Gold (-5 percent) and Palladium (-2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-4.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-2.3 percent)
Silver (3.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.5 percent)
Copper (2.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-2.7 percent)
Platinum (4.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.0 percent)
Steel (-5.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.9 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 53.0 | 25.7 | 10.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.8 | 51.6 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | 91,226 | -111,982 | 20,756 |
| – Gross Longs: | 228,406 | 110,666 | 45,256 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 137,180 | 222,648 | 24,500 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.2 | 80.7 | 32.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.7 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.8 | 30.0 | 22.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.7 | 54.1 | 10.6 |
| – Net Position: | 15,344 | -30,358 | 15,014 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,405 | 37,769 | 28,386 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,061 | 68,127 | 13,372 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.1 | 57.1 | 49.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.5 | -7.9 | 22.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.2 | 41.1 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.7 | 31.5 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -21,912 | 19,952 | 1,960 |
| – Gross Longs: | 69,273 | 85,785 | 15,950 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 91,185 | 65,833 | 13,990 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 11.9 | 88.2 | 30.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.3 | -2.1 | -1.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 55.8 | 27.5 | 10.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 52.6 | 36.8 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | 2,616 | -7,514 | 4,898 |
| – Gross Longs: | 45,496 | 22,452 | 8,772 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 42,880 | 29,966 | 3,874 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.6 | 77.9 | 33.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.1 | -2.5 | -7.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.8 | 59.9 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 74.5 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | -9,718 | 9,861 | -143 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,007 | 11,038 | 1,588 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,725 | 1,177 | 1,731 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 9.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.8 | 93.3 | 33.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.4 | 1.1 | 11.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.2 | 85.9 | 1.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.0 | 56.4 | 1.7 |
| – Net Position: | -5,487 | 5,606 | -119 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,560 | 16,354 | 214 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,047 | 10,748 | 333 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.4 | 35.4 | 19.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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