Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by MSCI EAFE-Mini

September 9, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nikkei 225 with a small gain of 591 contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11,282 contracts) with the VIX (-8,940 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,833 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,612 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-2,105 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-1,724 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini 2,259,160 26 -144,211 43 123,567 57 20,644 46
Nikkei 225 24,684 40 -142 68 -1,199 29 1,341 45
Nasdaq-Mini 274,701 47 13,550 85 -5,696 19 -7,854 39
DowJones-Mini 93,933 53 -11,724 41 10,223 55 1,501 51
VIX 402,061 73 -42,726 88 44,265 9 -1,539 88
Nikkei 225 Yen 66,338 66 5,860 52 14,723 51 -20,583 40

 


Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (88 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (43.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (43.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (40.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (45.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (28.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (68.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (13.5 percent)

 

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (14 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-0.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-37.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (16.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (13.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 45.8 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 34.8 7.0
– Net Position: -42,726 44,265 -1,539
– Gross Longs: 101,854 184,112 26,430
– Gross Shorts: 144,580 139,847 27,969
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 9.1 88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -1.5 13.7

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -144,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 75.0 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 69.5 10.5
– Net Position: -144,211 123,567 20,644
– Gross Longs: 245,378 1,693,540 256,870
– Gross Shorts: 389,589 1,569,973 236,226
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.2 56.9 45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.2 -12.7 1.4

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 57.3 15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.2 46.5 13.9
– Net Position: -11,724 10,223 1,501
– Gross Longs: 22,245 53,865 14,590
– Gross Shorts: 33,969 43,642 13,089
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.7 54.6 51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -37.2 20.3 15.4

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 56.2 13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 58.3 16.7
– Net Position: 13,550 -5,696 -7,854
– Gross Longs: 74,040 154,346 38,035
– Gross Shorts: 60,490 160,042 45,889
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.0 19.0 38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -8.6 -20.3

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -71,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 83.3 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.9 69.5 5.1
– Net Position: -71,711 70,806 905
– Gross Longs: 50,897 426,554 26,844
– Gross Shorts: 122,608 355,748 25,939
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.9 70.2 29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 4.0 -13.1

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.3 62.9 18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 67.8 12.6
– Net Position: -142 -1,199 1,341
– Gross Longs: 4,015 15,537 4,453
– Gross Shorts: 4,157 16,736 3,112
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.2 28.6 45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -18.3 6.8

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 90.7 2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 81.9 1.5
– Net Position: -38,079 34,346 3,733
– Gross Longs: 23,910 354,137 9,687
– Gross Shorts: 61,989 319,791 5,954
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 13.0 -18.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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