Speculator Extremes: VIX, Cocoa, GBP, US Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 21.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -25,985 net contracts this week with a change of 18,419 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.1 this week. The speculator position registered 77,125 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -2,377 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 50,988 net contracts this week with a change of 3,968 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 89.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -8.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 82,023 net contracts this week with a change of -1,628 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level sits at a 85.9 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.5 this week.

The speculator position was 31,677 net contracts this week with a change of 796 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,117,392 net contracts this week with a change of -8,266 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.1 this week. The speculator position was -445,497 net contracts this week with a change of -409 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,191,295 net contracts this week with a change of 39,012 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 5.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.0 this week. The speculator position was -9,423 net contracts this week with a change of 769 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 5.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.0 this week. The speculator position was -26,966 net contracts this week with a change of -52,693 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.