Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (7,374 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,661 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,542 contracts) and Bitcoin (18 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,158 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-5,050 contracts), Mexican Peso (-1,109 contracts), the British Pound (-1,729 contracts), the EuroFX (-2,191 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-651 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the new bullish positioning in the Canadian dollar. Large speculative Canadian dollar positions rose this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks.

Speculators have now added +42,856 net contracts to the overall position in just the last four weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at +4,527 contracts) to the first bullish level of the past 41 weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2022.

The Canadian dollar’s futures price (versus the US dollar) has been in an uptrend since hitting a recent 2023-low in March of 2022 near 0.7223. The CAD front month futures price climbed back over the 200-day moving average in June and closed this week at the 0.7541 level. Helping the CAD go higher at the end of this week was the better than expected Canadian jobs report which could help propel the currency higher and continue on its current uptrend.

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Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (99 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week and are in Extreme-Bullish levels. The Brazilian Real (75 percent), EuroFX (73 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (49.9 percent)
EuroFX (73.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (98.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (3.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (48.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.0 percent)
Bitcoin (40.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.4 percent)

 

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (49 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (11 percent), the US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-22 percent), EuroFX (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-16.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (29.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-28.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-6.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (49.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-51.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-54.2 percent)

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Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	2.2	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	64.5	8.3
– Net Position:	14,317	-16,580	2,263
– Gross Longs:	20,267	584	4,462
– Gross Shorts:	5,950	17,164	2,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	49.4	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-4.3	-4.0

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 142,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	55.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	81.4	6.1
– Net Position:	142,837	-189,459	46,622
– Gross Longs:	221,272	401,256	90,921
– Gross Shorts:	78,435	590,715	44,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	26.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	11.7	-6.1

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	33.7	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	62.5	10.5
– Net Position:	50,265	-63,664	13,399
– Gross Longs:	96,461	74,446	36,707
– Gross Shorts:	46,196	138,110	23,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	1.9	84.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.2	-28.7	16.3

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -117,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	71.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.2	24.2	14.5
– Net Position:	-117,920	126,010	-8,090
– Gross Longs:	41,713	190,157	30,449
– Gross Shorts:	159,633	64,147	38,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	16.4	7.4

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	45.9	27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	27.2	37.8
– Net Position:	-3,404	7,565	-4,161
– Gross Longs:	10,634	18,633	11,193
– Gross Shorts:	14,038	11,068	15,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	57.5	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	9.7	-11.4

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	47.0	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	59.0	13.7
– Net Position:	4,527	-18,815	14,288
– Gross Longs:	44,178	73,437	35,761
– Gross Shorts:	39,651	92,252	21,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	43.3	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.5	-46.2	33.1

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	53.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	20.0	16.3
– Net Position:	-44,582	51,374	-6,792
– Gross Longs:	50,170	82,076	18,331
– Gross Shorts:	94,752	30,702	25,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	57.2	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-6.5	10.2

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	53.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	48.9	13.9
– Net Position:	830	1,511	-2,341
– Gross Longs:	13,170	18,176	2,390
– Gross Shorts:	12,340	16,665	4,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	50.1	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	4.9	-38.8

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	44.1	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	85.9	1.9
– Net Position:	95,240	-99,399	4,159
– Gross Longs:	123,919	105,172	8,685
– Gross Shorts:	28,679	204,571	4,526
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	2.2	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-10.0	-9.7

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.1	35.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	76.5	13.1
– Net Position:	31,104	-27,440	-3,664
– Gross Longs:	38,012	23,461	5,070
– Gross Shorts:	6,908	50,901	8,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	30.9	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	11.4	-60.8

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	10.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.8	3.3	3.7
– Net Position:	-2,076	1,132	944
– Gross Longs:	12,854	1,698	1,568
– Gross Shorts:	14,930	566	624
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	100.0	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.8	91.6	13.5

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.