Speculator Extremes: GBP, Cocoa, 2-Year & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 18th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 35.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 63,729 net contracts this week with a change of 5,666 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.9 this week. The speculator position registered 76,488 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 6,373 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 96.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 94,492 net contracts this week with a change of -1,674 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 104,844 net contracts this week with a change of -3,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12.8 this week.

The speculator position was -40,289 net contracts this week with a change of 10,444 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,119,380 net contracts this week with a change of -47,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56.1 this week. The speculator position was -237,629 net contracts this week with a change of -44,936 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,350 net contracts this week with a change of -78 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,145,489 net contracts this week with a change of -89,405 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Finally, the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The speculator position was -439,397 net contracts this week with a change of -6,485 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.