By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other one market had lower contracts.
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Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,004 contracts) with Natural Gas (12,020 contracts), Gasoline (7,393 contracts), Heating Oil (301 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (95 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The energy market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil with a decrease of -8,158 contracts also registering lower bets on the week.
| Jul-11-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,796,348 | 36 | 173,433 | 9 | -196,688 | 93 | 23,255 | 26 |
| Gold | 483,170 | 28 | 165,754 | 50 | -187,749 | 51 | 21,995 | 35 |
| Silver | 120,282 | 6 | 20,292 | 47 | -31,649 | 56 | 11,357 | 29 |
| Copper | 197,785 | 41 | -11,157 | 21 | 7,915 | 78 | 3,242 | 39 |
| Palladium | 15,772 | 100 | -8,272 | 0 | 8,765 | 100 | -493 | 12 |
| Platinum | 71,007 | 72 | 7,787 | 34 | -13,912 | 65 | 6,125 | 50 |
| Natural Gas | 1,236,802 | 56 | -86,755 | 37 | 55,554 | 62 | 31,201 | 54 |
| Brent | 134,662 | 8 | -48,031 | 18 | 46,617 | 87 | 1,414 | 28 |
| Heating Oil | 320,001 | 44 | 28,000 | 79 | -47,728 | 31 | 19,728 | 67 |
| Soybeans | 622,509 | 11 | 90,863 | 25 | -77,180 | 70 | -13,683 | 68 |
| Corn | 1,241,940 | 7 | 7,811 | 23 | 35,215 | 81 | -43,026 | 52 |
| Coffee | 180,118 | 3 | 8,495 | 36 | -8,052 | 68 | -443 | 7 |
| Sugar | 877,695 | 43 | 196,304 | 60 | -226,030 | 41 | 29,726 | 41 |
| Wheat | 297,146 | 7 | -40,411 | 38 | 45,506 | 65 | -5,095 | 56 |
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) and Heating Oil (79.0 percent) lead the energy close to the top of their respective ranges. Gasoline (41.9 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.
On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength scores currently and are in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (34.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (32.6 percent)
Gasoline (41.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (29.7 percent)
Heating Oil (79.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (83.9 percent)
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (18.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent), Gasoline (9.5 percent) and Natural Gas (7.7 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (15.8 percent)
Natural Gas (7.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.4 percent)
Gasoline (9.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-2.1 percent)
Heating Oil (18.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (35.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.3 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.9 | 39.0 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.2 | 49.9 | 3.7 |
| – Net Position: | 173,433 | -196,688 | 23,255 |
| – Gross Longs: | 339,297 | 700,019 | 89,390 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 165,864 | 896,707 | 66,135 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.5 | 93.0 | 25.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.6 | -0.9 | -14.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.2 | 54.1 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.8 | 19.5 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | -48,031 | 46,617 | 1,414 |
| – Gross Longs: | 13,704 | 72,834 | 7,524 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 61,735 | 26,217 | 6,110 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.7 | 87.4 | 28.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.5 | -4.7 | -40.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.4 | 39.2 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.4 | 34.7 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | -86,755 | 55,554 | 31,201 |
| – Gross Longs: | 251,784 | 484,758 | 70,705 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 338,539 | 429,204 | 39,504 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.4 | 61.5 | 54.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.7 | -7.8 | 0.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.8 | 44.4 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.2 | 62.5 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 53,407 | -62,164 | 8,757 |
| – Gross Longs: | 95,389 | 152,407 | 23,514 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 41,982 | 214,571 | 14,757 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.9 | 56.5 | 71.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.5 | -13.8 | 23.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.3 | 46.0 | 14.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.6 | 60.9 | 8.5 |
| – Net Position: | 28,000 | -47,728 | 19,728 |
| – Gross Longs: | 52,184 | 147,076 | 46,782 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,184 | 194,804 | 27,054 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 79.0 | 30.5 | 66.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 18.2 | -39.5 | 52.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.1 | 86.6 | 0.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.2 | 76.7 | 0.2 |
| – Net Position: | -5,651 | 5,508 | 143 |
| – Gross Longs: | 6,698 | 48,079 | 269 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,349 | 42,571 | 126 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.3 | 16.2 | 54.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.0 | 15.1 | -0.8 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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