Live Cattle leads Soft Commodities Speculator bets while Corn & Sugar bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (9,505 contracts) with Cotton (1,485 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,142 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-40,779 contracts), Corn (-33,737 contracts), Coffee (-13,927 contracts), Lean Hogs (-17,857 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,591 contracts), Soybeans (-8,311 contracts), Wheat (-7,425 contracts) and Cocoa (-617 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Live Cattle speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Live Cattle gained this week for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time over the past seven weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Live Cattle (currently at +79,994 contracts) to the highest level in the past forty-six weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022.

The Live Cattle futures prices have continued to trade in a sustained uptrend with prices closing higher in each of the past seven months. Recently, the Live Cattle futures front month price touched its highest level since 2015 with a high right below the $160 level.

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Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (60 percent), Sugar (58 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (21 percent) and the Lean Hogs (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (59.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.2 percent)
Sugar (58.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (72.5 percent)
Coffee (1.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (54.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (57.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (45.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (51.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (99.4 percent)
Live Cattle (79.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.3 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.8 percent)
Cocoa (43.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (0.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.5 percent)

 

Live Cattle & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Cocoa (17 percent) and Sugar (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-12 percent), Wheat (-6 percent) and Corn (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-4.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.4 percent)
Sugar (3.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.9 percent)
Coffee (-0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (17.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (26.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (26.8 percent)
Live Cattle (32.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-11.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cotton (1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.0 percent)
Cocoa (17.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.4 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.7 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 233,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 267,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	46.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.2	13.8
– Net Position:	233,795	-182,611	-51,184
– Gross Longs:	332,822	561,153	116,990
– Gross Shorts:	99,027	743,764	168,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	45.9	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	6.9	-8.0

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 228,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	69.8	5.0
– Net Position:	187,713	-232,509	44,796
– Gross Longs:	274,296	399,818	90,034
– Gross Shorts:	86,583	632,327	45,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	36.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.8	1.5

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	51.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	46.4	3.9
– Net Position:	-14,739	11,310	3,429
– Gross Longs:	48,809	108,900	11,598
– Gross Shorts:	63,548	97,590	8,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	96.2	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-2.6	34.7

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 140,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	48.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	65.5	12.8
– Net Position:	140,328	-104,166	-36,162
– Gross Longs:	187,837	302,217	42,977
– Gross Shorts:	47,509	406,383	79,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	57.0	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-13.8	-17.8

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	49.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	68.2	6.4
– Net Position:	62,099	-71,356	9,257
– Gross Longs:	91,252	183,263	33,103
– Gross Shorts:	29,153	254,619	23,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	55.3	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	28.6	-14.1

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 157,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	31.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	76.0	6.3
– Net Position:	157,710	-180,580	22,870
– Gross Longs:	171,785	130,280	48,473
– Gross Shorts:	14,075	310,860	25,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-27.4	15.3

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	27.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.1	12.7
– Net Position:	79,994	-72,962	-7,032
– Gross Longs:	132,029	88,511	33,907
– Gross Shorts:	52,035	161,473	40,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	13.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.5	-28.0	-21.6

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	36.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	47.1	13.3
– Net Position:	25,769	-19,358	-6,411
– Gross Longs:	65,146	70,042	18,949
– Gross Shorts:	39,377	89,400	25,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.7	73.8	72.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	7.6	21.4

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	49.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	59.5	5.7
– Net Position:	17,944	-19,936	1,992
– Gross Longs:	58,104	99,886	13,474
– Gross Shorts:	40,160	119,822	11,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-1.2	2.6

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	44.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	54.9	3.2
– Net Position:	27,221	-31,199	3,978
– Gross Longs:	94,218	132,109	13,616
– Gross Shorts:	66,997	163,308	9,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	56.6	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-17.7	3.6

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	42.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	29.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-39,716	43,529	-3,813
– Gross Longs:	87,085	140,763	33,599
– Gross Shorts:	126,801	97,234	37,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	100.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.6	-0.5

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.