By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT bond market speculator bets were even this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (65,457 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (29,768 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15,087 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (11,873 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Eurodollar (-71,774 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-27,756 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,512 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-3,929 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
Highlighting the COT bonds data is this week’s breather in the highly bearish 2-Year and 5-Year speculator positioning.
The 2-Year Bond large speculator positions trimmed their bearish bets for a second straight week and for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. This improvement comes after speculators pushed their positioning to an all-time bearish low of -586,270 contracts on November 15th. Since that record low, speculators have taken off a total of 130,219 contracts from the bearish standing.
The 5-Year Bond speculator positions have also improved recently with four straight weeks of decreasing bearish levels. The 5-Year speculator positions had recently fallen to 216-week low of -691,537 contracts on December 13th which marked the most bearish level since October of 2023. Since then, bets have gained by +68,386 contracts in the past four weeks.
Despite the recent improvements, both the 2-Year and 5-Year speculator levels continue to remain strongly bearish in this rising rate economic environment that also currently has yield curve inversions all over the total US bonds yield curve. However, there is the potential that both recent significant lows (in 2-Year and 5-Year) could be seen as bearish sentiment peaks if inflation data continues to moderate and the US Federal Reserve decides to scale back on their interest rate hikes.
| Jan-10-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurodollar | 6,013,989 | 1 | -1,055,535 | 34 | 1,258,804 | 64 | -203,269 | 60 |
| FedFunds | 1,527,145 | 49 | -112,330 | 26 | 129,044 | 76 | -16,714 | 19 |
| 2-Year | 2,319,897 | 25 | -456,051 | 19 | 452,472 | 79 | 3,579 | 54 |
| Long T-Bond | 1,184,966 | 40 | -157,385 | 33 | 129,734 | 57 | 27,651 | 75 |
| 10-Year | 3,894,938 | 57 | -411,358 | 10 | 488,454 | 80 | -77,096 | 62 |
| 5-Year | 4,095,328 | 57 | -623,151 | 9 | 657,644 | 87 | -34,493 | 72 |
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (34 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (33 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (19 percent) come in as the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (33.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (36.3 percent)
Eurodollar (33.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (35.0 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
The 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next for lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-16.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
Eurodollar (12.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.5 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.
| 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.5 | 69.9 | 5.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.0 | 48.9 | 8.5 |
| – Net Position: | -1,055,535 | 1,258,804 | -203,269 |
| – Gross Longs: | 450,880 | 4,201,292 | 306,594 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,506,415 | 2,942,488 | 509,863 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.7 | 63.6 | 59.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.0 | -12.3 | 8.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.7 | 76.8 | 2.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.0 | 68.3 | 3.1 |
| – Net Position: | -112,330 | 129,044 | -16,714 |
| – Gross Longs: | 132,184 | 1,172,814 | 31,131 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 244,514 | 1,043,770 | 47,845 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.8 | 75.5 | 19.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.8 | 10.4 | -18.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.5 | 80.1 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.2 | 60.6 | 8.4 |
| – Net Position: | -456,051 | 452,472 | 3,579 |
| – Gross Longs: | 220,701 | 1,857,300 | 199,092 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 676,752 | 1,404,828 | 195,513 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 19.3 | 79.1 | 53.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.7 | -10.1 | -2.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 5.8 | 84.8 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.0 | 68.7 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | -623,151 | 657,644 | -34,493 |
| – Gross Longs: | 235,968 | 3,471,933 | 326,120 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 859,119 | 2,814,289 | 360,613 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.7 | 86.8 | 71.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.9 | 4.4 | 15.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.1 | 79.5 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.7 | 66.9 | 11.0 |
| – Net Position: | -411,358 | 488,454 | -77,096 |
| – Gross Longs: | 355,989 | 3,095,025 | 350,630 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 767,347 | 2,606,571 | 427,726 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.9 | 79.9 | 61.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.4 | 15.3 | -3.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.6 | 78.6 | 9.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.4 | 65.3 | 16.4 |
| – Net Position: | -98,270 | 193,388 | -95,118 |
| – Gross Longs: | 153,296 | 1,138,679 | 142,921 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 251,566 | 945,291 | 238,039 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 3.9 | 89.9 | 63.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.9 | 8.7 | -9.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 5.7 | 79.0 | 14.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.9 | 68.0 | 12.3 |
| – Net Position: | -157,385 | 129,734 | 27,651 |
| – Gross Longs: | 66,962 | 935,742 | 173,392 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 224,347 | 806,008 | 145,741 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.4 | 56.9 | 74.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.4 | 22.4 | -7.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 4.5 | 83.7 | 11.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.0 | 59.6 | 9.1 |
| – Net Position: | -371,406 | 338,409 | 32,997 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,917 | 1,176,415 | 161,277 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 435,323 | 838,006 | 128,280 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.7 | 79.1 | 59.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.3 | 3.7 | -20.4 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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