COT Metals Speculators boost their Gold bullish bets to 13-week high

November 20, 2022

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week.


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Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (43,931 contracts) with Copper (6,908 contracts), Silver (4,604 contracts), Platinum (3,095 contracts) and Palladium (1,338 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rebound of the Gold speculator bets. The large speculator position for Gold jumped by over +40,000 contracts this week following a gain by over +17,000 contracts. This week’s rise marked the highest weekly gain in 143-weeks and the renewed speculator sentiment has pushed the overall Gold net position back above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since early September. The Gold speculator net standing is now at the highest level since August 16th when the net contracts was +141,164 contracts.

Gold prices have had a bit of an upswing since November 4th as well as the futures price has risen from the (Nov. 4th) opening level of $1,631.00 to close out this week at the $1,754.40 threshold. Gold, also this week, touched its highest level since the middle of August just below $1,792.00 before retreating lower.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,469,437 3 278,267 18 -307,395 81 29,128 48
Gold 495,171 17 126,269 25 -134,308 78 8,039 0
Silver 141,623 14 17,607 34 -29,424 67 11,817 27
Copper 168,962 9 9,821 44 -13,583 56 3,762 47
Palladium 8,793 14 -1,072 17 1,231 81 -159 32
Platinum 63,391 27 22,544 39 -27,037 62 4,493 28
Natural Gas 978,425 6 -152,114 33 120,830 69 31,284 54
Brent 139,080 4 -25,194 69 20,782 28 4,412 69
Heating Oil 275,254 26 25,660 80 -46,933 21 21,273 72
Soybeans 616,094 9 76,804 37 -49,046 72 -27,758 24
Corn 1,421,555 22 252,908 62 -211,862 42 -41,046 19
Coffee 191,743 6 -14,154 0 11,840 100 2,314 32
Sugar 832,522 26 156,194 59 -201,779 39 45,585 64
Wheat 350,091 27 -22,481 0 29,310 100 -6,829 75

 


Copper & Platinum lead Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (44.1 percent) and Platinum (39.4 percent) lead the metals category. Silver (33.5 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (17.5 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position with a score under 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (24.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (33.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.4 percent)
Copper (44.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (38.6 percent)
Platinum (39.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.2 percent)
Palladium (17.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)

Platinum tops the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Platinum (25.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (22.3 percent), Gold (12.6 percent) and Silver (9.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-2.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (22.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.4 percent)
Platinum (25.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (25.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.3 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 43,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 27.3 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.4 54.4 5.8
– Net Position: 126,269 -134,308 8,039
– Gross Longs: 227,282 135,035 36,973
– Gross Shorts: 101,013 269,343 28,934
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 77.7 0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.6 -11.7 -0.3

 


Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.2 34.2 17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.8 54.9 8.9
– Net Position: 17,607 -29,424 11,817
– Gross Longs: 52,692 48,393 24,386
– Gross Shorts: 35,085 77,817 12,569
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.5 67.4 27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.8 -11.2 14.0

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.9 36.5 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 44.6 8.0
– Net Position: 9,821 -13,583 3,762
– Gross Longs: 60,730 61,693 17,332
– Gross Shorts: 50,909 75,276 13,570
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 56.5 47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.3 -24.5 20.4

 


Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.2 27.4 11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 70.1 4.8
– Net Position: 22,544 -27,037 4,493
– Gross Longs: 33,079 17,374 7,567
– Gross Shorts: 10,535 44,411 3,074
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 61.9 28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.9 -25.1 8.5

 


Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.7 51.3 13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.9 37.3 15.0
– Net Position: -1,072 1,231 -159
– Gross Longs: 1,997 4,512 1,161
– Gross Shorts: 3,069 3,281 1,320
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.5 81.1 32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 5.0 -23.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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