By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week.
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Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (43,931 contracts) with Copper (6,908 contracts), Silver (4,604 contracts), Platinum (3,095 contracts) and Palladium (1,338 contracts) also showing a positive week.
Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rebound of the Gold speculator bets. The large speculator position for Gold jumped by over +40,000 contracts this week following a gain by over +17,000 contracts. This week’s rise marked the highest weekly gain in 143-weeks and the renewed speculator sentiment has pushed the overall Gold net position back above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since early September. The Gold speculator net standing is now at the highest level since August 16th when the net contracts was +141,164 contracts.
Gold prices have had a bit of an upswing since November 4th as well as the futures price has risen from the (Nov. 4th) opening level of $1,631.00 to close out this week at the $1,754.40 threshold. Gold, also this week, touched its highest level since the middle of August just below $1,792.00 before retreating lower.
| Nov-15-2022 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,469,437 | 3 | 278,267 | 18 | -307,395 | 81 | 29,128 | 48 |
| Gold | 495,171 | 17 | 126,269 | 25 | -134,308 | 78 | 8,039 | 0 |
| Silver | 141,623 | 14 | 17,607 | 34 | -29,424 | 67 | 11,817 | 27 |
| Copper | 168,962 | 9 | 9,821 | 44 | -13,583 | 56 | 3,762 | 47 |
| Palladium | 8,793 | 14 | -1,072 | 17 | 1,231 | 81 | -159 | 32 |
| Platinum | 63,391 | 27 | 22,544 | 39 | -27,037 | 62 | 4,493 | 28 |
| Natural Gas | 978,425 | 6 | -152,114 | 33 | 120,830 | 69 | 31,284 | 54 |
| Brent | 139,080 | 4 | -25,194 | 69 | 20,782 | 28 | 4,412 | 69 |
| Heating Oil | 275,254 | 26 | 25,660 | 80 | -46,933 | 21 | 21,273 | 72 |
| Soybeans | 616,094 | 9 | 76,804 | 37 | -49,046 | 72 | -27,758 | 24 |
| Corn | 1,421,555 | 22 | 252,908 | 62 | -211,862 | 42 | -41,046 | 19 |
| Coffee | 191,743 | 6 | -14,154 | 0 | 11,840 | 100 | 2,314 | 32 |
| Sugar | 832,522 | 26 | 156,194 | 59 | -201,779 | 39 | 45,585 | 64 |
| Wheat | 350,091 | 27 | -22,481 | 0 | 29,310 | 100 | -6,829 | 75 |
Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (44.1 percent) and Platinum (39.4 percent) lead the metals category. Silver (33.5 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.
On the downside, Palladium (17.5 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position with a score under 20 percent.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (24.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (33.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.4 percent)
Copper (44.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (38.6 percent)
Platinum (39.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.2 percent)
Palladium (17.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Platinum (25.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (22.3 percent), Gold (12.6 percent) and Silver (9.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.
Palladium (-2.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (22.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.4 percent)
Platinum (25.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (25.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.3 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 45.9 | 27.3 | 7.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.4 | 54.4 | 5.8 |
| – Net Position: | 126,269 | -134,308 | 8,039 |
| – Gross Longs: | 227,282 | 135,035 | 36,973 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 101,013 | 269,343 | 28,934 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 24.6 | 77.7 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.6 | -11.7 | -0.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.2 | 34.2 | 17.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.8 | 54.9 | 8.9 |
| – Net Position: | 17,607 | -29,424 | 11,817 |
| – Gross Longs: | 52,692 | 48,393 | 24,386 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 35,085 | 77,817 | 12,569 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.5 | 67.4 | 27.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.8 | -11.2 | 14.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.9 | 36.5 | 10.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.1 | 44.6 | 8.0 |
| – Net Position: | 9,821 | -13,583 | 3,762 |
| – Gross Longs: | 60,730 | 61,693 | 17,332 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 50,909 | 75,276 | 13,570 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.1 | 56.5 | 47.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 22.3 | -24.5 | 20.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.2 | 27.4 | 11.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.6 | 70.1 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | 22,544 | -27,037 | 4,493 |
| – Gross Longs: | 33,079 | 17,374 | 7,567 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,535 | 44,411 | 3,074 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.1 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.4 | 61.9 | 28.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 25.9 | -25.1 | 8.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.7 | 51.3 | 13.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.9 | 37.3 | 15.0 |
| – Net Position: | -1,072 | 1,231 | -159 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,997 | 4,512 | 1,161 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 3,069 | 3,281 | 1,320 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.5 | 81.1 | 32.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.8 | 5.0 | -23.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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