By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.
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Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (3,587 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,703 contracts) also showing a positive week.
The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-13,798 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-3,354 contracts), Gasoline (-3,013 contracts) and Heating Oil (-2,683 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
| Sep-27-2022 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,504,991 | 3 | 226,080 | 4 | -246,872 | 98 | 20,792 | 35 |
| Gold | 457,061 | 1 | 52,081 | 0 | -62,138 | 100 | 10,057 | 1 |
| Silver | 129,000 | 0 | 758 | 15 | -6,860 | 89 | 6,102 | 0 |
| Copper | 173,661 | 13 | -27,756 | 16 | 28,884 | 86 | -1,128 | 19 |
| Palladium | 6,080 | 1 | -831 | 18 | 1,236 | 82 | -405 | 20 |
| Platinum | 58,994 | 20 | 161 | 9 | -2,525 | 93 | 2,364 | 0 |
| Natural Gas | 943,241 | 0 | -152,124 | 33 | 121,135 | 69 | 30,989 | 54 |
| Brent | 167,444 | 14 | -41,257 | 42 | 40,490 | 61 | 767 | 20 |
| Heating Oil | 290,265 | 31 | 11,414 | 59 | -21,625 | 48 | 10,211 | 34 |
| Soybeans | 699,311 | 27 | 80,051 | 38 | -50,206 | 71 | -29,845 | 21 |
| Corn | 1,347,278 | 11 | 296,622 | 68 | -229,436 | 39 | -67,186 | 4 |
| Coffee | 185,149 | 1 | 44,680 | 77 | -46,664 | 27 | 1,984 | 18 |
| Sugar | 710,887 | 2 | 48,601 | 47 | -56,409 | 57 | 7,808 | 18 |
| Wheat | 290,771 | 2 | 2,735 | 23 | 4,675 | 66 | -7,410 | 72 |
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.4 percent) and Heating Oil (59.2 percent) lead the energy markets currently. These are the only two markets that have scores above 50 percent or above the midpoint of the 3-year range.
On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is followed by Gasoline at 16.1 percent. Both of these markets are currently in bearish extreme positions with scores below 20 percent.
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (41.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (47.6 percent)
Natural Gas (32.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (31.8 percent)
Gasoline (16.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (19.1 percent)
Heating Oil (59.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (63.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (68.0 percent)
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. The only other positive mover in the latest trends data was WTI Crude Oil at 2.9 percent.
Heating Oil (-19.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-9.4 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.8 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-8.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-6.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-9.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-9.1 percent)
Gasoline (-3.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (1.6 percent)
Heating Oil (-19.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-15.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (8.9 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.2 | 39.8 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.2 | 56.2 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | 226,080 | -246,872 | 20,792 |
| – Gross Longs: | 333,933 | 598,428 | 75,054 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 107,853 | 845,300 | 54,262 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.1 | 97.6 | 34.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.9 | -2.0 | -5.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.3 | 53.2 | 4.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 40.0 | 29.0 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | -41,257 | 40,490 | 767 |
| – Gross Longs: | 25,696 | 89,127 | 7,236 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,953 | 48,637 | 6,469 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.9 | 60.6 | 19.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.8 | 10.3 | -12.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.1 | 43.3 | 6.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.2 | 30.5 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | -152,124 | 121,135 | 30,989 |
| – Gross Longs: | 142,021 | 408,871 | 61,287 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 294,145 | 287,736 | 30,298 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.9 | 69.1 | 53.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.4 | 12.1 | -16.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.9 | 46.8 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.5 | 66.4 | 6.4 |
| – Net Position: | 44,060 | -46,904 | 2,844 |
| – Gross Longs: | 78,843 | 111,947 | 18,200 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,783 | 158,851 | 15,356 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.1 | 86.4 | 31.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.6 | 5.5 | -14.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.6 | 53.3 | 13.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.7 | 60.8 | 9.7 |
| – Net Position: | 11,414 | -21,625 | 10,211 |
| – Gross Longs: | 39,591 | 154,778 | 38,397 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 28,177 | 176,403 | 28,186 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 59.2 | 48.2 | 33.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -19.9 | 19.6 | -16.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.0 | 74.1 | 0.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.4 | 61.9 | 0.2 |
| – Net Position: | -7,614 | 7,445 | 169 |
| – Gross Longs: | 14,652 | 45,267 | 271 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 22,266 | 37,822 | 102 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 78.4 | 21.9 | 16.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.2 | -19.8 | -4.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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