Sugar and Soybean Oil bets top Speculator Soft Commodity Markets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Sugar and Soybean Oil top Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (25,297 contracts) with Soybean Oil (18,444 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,948 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,531 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,991 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Coffee (-21,311 contracts) with Corn (-12,702 contracts), Cotton (-3,338 contracts), Cocoa (-2,468 contracts), Wheat (-1,551 contracts) and Soybeans (-1,086 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week was the speculator positions in Sugar. The large speculative position for Sugar has risen sharply for two straight weeks and has advanced in seven out of the past ten weeks. This trader bullishness has brought a gain of +100,347 contracts over just the last ten-week period and pushed overall bullish standing back above the +100,000 net contract level for the first time since July.

Sugar prices and sentiment have been boosted higher by lower production numbers and higher prices out of Europe as well as Brazil this year. Prices closed this week around the 18.40 level and have been in a range between 17 and 20.70 since July of 2021.

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Soybean Meal leads Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (82.7 percent) and the XXXX lead the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (69.9 percent) and Sugar (62.5 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (14.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (69.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (71.6 percent)
Sugar (62.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.3 percent)
Coffee (52.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.1 percent)
Soybeans (30.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (30.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (55.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (82.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (81.3 percent)
Live Cattle (31.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (29.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (36.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.6 percent)
Cotton (35.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (37.7 percent)
Cocoa (27.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (30.4 percent)
Wheat (14.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.5 percent)

Strength Trends led by Soybean Oil and Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (14.1 percent), Wheat (8.1 percent), Cocoa (6.7 percent) and Corn (3.3 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-26.5 percent) and Coffee (-25.7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cotton (-13.2 percent) followed by Lean Hogs (-10.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (14.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.9 percent)
Coffee (-25.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.5 percent)
Soybeans (-8.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-10.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-26.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-25.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-10.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.2 percent)
Cotton (-13.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.6 percent)
Cocoa (6.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.3 percent)
Wheat (8.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (12.4 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 312,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	44.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	62.3	13.3
– Net Position:	312,419	-249,255	-63,164
– Gross Longs:	437,906	635,253	126,283
– Gross Shorts:	125,487	884,508	189,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	36.4	6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-2.6	-4.2

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126,412 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	48.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	71.2	6.4
– Net Position:	126,412	-164,671	38,259
– Gross Longs:	205,568	342,150	83,657
– Gross Shorts:	79,156	506,821	45,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.3	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-19.6	42.1

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	51.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	62.4	3.4
– Net Position:	19,223	-21,605	2,382
– Gross Longs:	41,151	101,222	9,017
– Gross Shorts:	21,928	122,827	6,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	52.4	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	26.5	2.9

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 54,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	54.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	58.8	10.5
– Net Position:	54,683	-30,595	-24,088
– Gross Longs:	132,144	389,695	50,829
– Gross Shorts:	77,461	420,290	74,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	77.3	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	6.3	10.7

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	45.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	67.6	5.3
– Net Position:	76,323	-91,542	15,219
– Gross Longs:	105,679	183,264	36,918
– Gross Shorts:	29,356	274,806	21,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	42.7	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-22.8	33.0

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 99,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	41.0	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.5	73.8	6.9
– Net Position:	99,132	-122,110	22,978
– Gross Longs:	119,484	152,664	48,567
– Gross Shorts:	20,352	274,774	25,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	19.5	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	2.4	17.9

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	36.3	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.4	12.5
– Net Position:	41,656	-42,115	459
– Gross Longs:	85,057	95,288	33,243
– Gross Shorts:	43,401	137,403	32,784
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	55.6	98.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	24.4	13.9

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	36.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	47.2	13.7
– Net Position:	27,089	-19,993	-7,096
– Gross Longs:	70,919	69,501	18,957
– Gross Shorts:	43,830	89,494	26,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	69.8	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	11.1	-0.8

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	50.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	64.5	4.7
– Net Position:	32,563	-34,238	1,675
– Gross Longs:	71,299	119,480	12,911
– Gross Shorts:	38,736	153,718	11,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	66.6	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	15.9	-35.4

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	46.2	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	50.3	3.6
– Net Position:	11,218	-12,445	1,227
– Gross Longs:	95,953	140,015	12,138
– Gross Shorts:	84,735	152,460	10,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	75.2	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-5.2	-15.4

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	40.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	37.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-3,541	10,534	-6,993
– Gross Longs:	86,038	125,771	26,783
– Gross Shorts:	89,579	115,237	33,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	74.6	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-4.5	-16.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.