COT Soft Commodities Speculator positions led by jump in Sugar bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by jump in Sugar bets

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (54,028 contracts) with Corn (20,159 contracts) and Cocoa (13,522 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-10,988 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-9,321 contracts), Wheat (-7,614 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,461 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,453 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,165 contracts), Coffee (-1,617 contracts) and Cotton (-1,578 contracts) all having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting this week’s COT softs data was the jump in speculator bets for Sugar. This week’s speculator positions rose by over +54,000 contracts and the position has now risen in six of the past nine weeks (total gain of +75,050 contracts in that period). This bullishness has now pushed the overall Sugar net speculator standing (+101,115 contracts) to the most bullish level of the past twelve weeks, dating back to July 19th. Sugar prices trade near their highest levels since 2017 as production issues and tight supply keeps the market buoyant.

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Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal, Coffee and Corn

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (81.3 percent), Coffee (73.1 percent) and Corn (71.6 percent) lead the soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Meal remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (57.4 percent) comes in as the only other soft commodity markets above 50 percent in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (16.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (71.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (57.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (46.3 percent)
Coffee (73.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybeans (30.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (81.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (86.4 percent)
Live Cattle (29.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (32.5 percent)
Cotton (37.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (38.9 percent)
Cocoa (30.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (16.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by Wheat this week

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Wheat (12.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (7.9 percent), Corn (5.3 percent) and Cocoa (5.3 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) and Live Cattle (-25.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cotton (-11.6 percent) followed by Soybean Meal (-10.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.3 percent)
Coffee (-7.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybeans (-8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-10.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-23.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-30.3 percent)
Cotton (-11.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.2 percent)
Cocoa (5.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.3 percent)
Wheat (12.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

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Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 325,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	45.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	63.6	13.3
– Net Position:	325,121	-258,225	-66,896
– Gross Longs:	445,776	637,863	120,700
– Gross Shorts:	120,655	896,088	187,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	35.1	4.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-4.6	-5.3

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 54,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	49.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	69.6	6.9
– Net Position:	101,115	-135,145	34,030
– Gross Longs:	183,050	343,017	81,678
– Gross Shorts:	81,935	478,162	47,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	42.5	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-11.9	29.6

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	47.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	70.4	3.4
– Net Position:	40,534	-43,359	2,825
– Gross Longs:	51,359	89,131	9,226
– Gross Shorts:	10,825	132,490	6,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	30.4	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.0	5.5

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	57.3	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	61.7	10.8
– Net Position:	55,769	-30,614	-25,155
– Gross Longs:	129,287	398,241	49,837
– Gross Shorts:	73,518	428,855	74,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	77.3	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	6.9	9.5

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	47.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	65.3	5.9
– Net Position:	57,879	-68,189	10,310
– Gross Longs:	90,140	187,787	33,605
– Gross Shorts:	32,261	255,976	23,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	57.3	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-3.4	5.8

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 96,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	41.3	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	74.1	7.1
– Net Position:	96,601	-118,422	21,821
– Gross Longs:	116,691	148,712	47,271
– Gross Shorts:	20,090	267,134	25,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	21.4	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.1	0.9

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	35.8	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.2	12.5
– Net Position:	39,665	-40,376	711
– Gross Longs:	89,016	94,076	33,558
– Gross Shorts:	49,351	134,452	32,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	58.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	23.8	11.1

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	38.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	46.6	12.9
– Net Position:	19,141	-14,847	-4,294
– Gross Longs:	62,550	72,029	19,735
– Gross Shorts:	43,409	86,876	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	75.9	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	24.3	18.1

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	50.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	66.9	4.3
– Net Position:	35,901	-38,518	2,617
– Gross Longs:	72,940	116,851	12,517
– Gross Shorts:	37,039	155,369	9,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	63.7	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	14.3	-34.8

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	43.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	48.7	3.5
– Net Position:	13,686	-16,330	2,644
– Gross Longs:	98,173	129,248	12,958
– Gross Shorts:	84,487	145,578	10,314
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	71.3	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-3.3	-20.2

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	40.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	38.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-1,990	8,705	-6,715
– Gross Longs:	84,943	126,068	28,094
– Gross Shorts:	86,933	117,363	34,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	72.0	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-8.8	-17.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.