By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.
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Leading the precious metals markets was just Platinum (2,566 contracts) showing a positive week.
The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,464 contracts) with Silver (-6,122 contracts), Copper (-4,403 contracts) and Palladium (-455 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Highlighting the COT Metals data this week was the speculator positions in Platinum. The large speculative positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past six weeks, speculative bets have improved by a total of +15,245 contracts. This recent bullishness has brought the overall net standing to its highest level in the past twenty-eight weeks, dating back to April 5th of this year.
Platinum prices have been on the rise as well with a monthly gain above 8 percent so far in October. Platinum could also benefit going forward from an interesting tax loophole in India that has pushed Platinum imports to a record high to approximately 27 tonnes this September compared to a little over 1 tonnes last September, according to Reuters. Indian gold refiners are importing Platinum mixed with Gold to offset new higher taxes on Gold. A Gold/Platinum mix allows importers to classify the import as a Platinum alloy and pay a lower tax rate on it.
Platinum futures closed this week over 4 percent higher near the $933 level but below the $940 level which has acted as a resistance barrier over the past five weeks.
| Oct-18-2022 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,454,431 | 0 | 251,545 | 11 | -273,757 | 90 | 22,212 | 37 |
| Gold | 434,701 | 1 | 76,956 | 8 | -90,030 | 91 | 13,074 | 12 |
| Silver | 136,055 | 9 | 1,267 | 15 | -9,085 | 87 | 7,818 | 8 |
| Copper | 178,730 | 17 | -20,302 | 20 | 19,696 | 82 | 606 | 29 |
| Palladium | 6,805 | 4 | -1,209 | 16 | 1,444 | 82 | -235 | 30 |
| Platinum | 53,728 | 11 | 8,494 | 21 | -11,632 | 81 | 3,138 | 10 |
| Natural Gas | 963,792 | 3 | -154,734 | 32 | 126,760 | 71 | 27,974 | 46 |
| Brent | 163,296 | 11 | -41,847 | 41 | 38,681 | 58 | 3,166 | 52 |
| Heating Oil | 283,702 | 29 | 24,555 | 79 | -44,031 | 24 | 19,476 | 66 |
| Soybeans | 714,532 | 30 | 54,683 | 30 | -30,595 | 77 | -24,088 | 30 |
| Corn | 1,419,087 | 22 | 312,419 | 70 | -249,255 | 36 | -63,164 | 7 |
| Coffee | 196,729 | 9 | 19,223 | 53 | -21,605 | 52 | 2,382 | 24 |
| Sugar | 711,664 | 4 | 126,412 | 63 | -164,671 | 37 | 38,259 | 55 |
| Wheat | 309,429 | 10 | -3,541 | 14 | 10,534 | 75 | -6,993 | 74 |
Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (20.5 percent) and Copper (20.2 percent) lead the metals this week just above the bearish extreme level.
On the downside, Gold (8.2 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Silver (15.5 percent) and Palladium (16.4 percent). All three markets in extreme bearish levels below 20 percent.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (8.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.0 percent)
Silver (15.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (22.3 percent)
Copper (20.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (23.7 percent)
Platinum (20.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.1 percent)
Palladium (16.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (19.1 percent)
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (20.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (15.5 percent), Copper (2.9 percent) and Palladium (2.3 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.
Gold (-8.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently as the only negative mover in the latest data.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-8.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (-7.7 percent)
Silver (15.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.3 percent)
Copper (2.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.9 percent)
Platinum (20.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (15.2 percent)
Palladium (2.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.5 | 26.5 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.8 | 47.2 | 6.0 |
| – Net Position: | 76,956 | -90,030 | 13,074 |
| – Gross Longs: | 210,890 | 115,073 | 39,286 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 133,934 | 205,103 | 26,212 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.2 | 91.4 | 12.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.9 | 7.4 | 7.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.9 | 37.5 | 16.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.0 | 44.1 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | 1,267 | -9,085 | 7,818 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,541 | 50,956 | 22,014 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 50,274 | 60,041 | 14,196 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.5 | 86.6 | 8.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.5 | -13.4 | 0.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.6 | 46.4 | 8.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.0 | 35.4 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | -20,302 | 19,696 | 606 |
| – Gross Longs: | 49,335 | 82,890 | 15,118 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 69,637 | 63,194 | 14,512 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.2 | 82.3 | 28.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.9 | -5.5 | 19.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.1 | 36.1 | 12.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.3 | 57.8 | 6.1 |
| – Net Position: | 8,494 | -11,632 | 3,138 |
| – Gross Longs: | 26,385 | 19,406 | 6,436 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 17,891 | 31,038 | 3,298 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.5 | 81.4 | 10.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.5 | -18.6 | -6.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.3 | 58.3 | 14.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.1 | 37.1 | 17.8 |
| – Net Position: | -1,209 | 1,444 | -235 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,793 | 3,968 | 975 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 3,002 | 2,524 | 1,210 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.4 | 82.3 | 30.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.3 | -4.0 | 16.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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