Sugar, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodity Speculator bets higher

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as nine out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (23,905 contracts) with Live Cattle (12,806 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,956 contracts), Corn (9,343 contracts), Cotton (7,985 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,809 contracts), Coffee (3,018 contracts), Cocoa (2,784 contracts) and Wheat (1,518 contracts) also having higher weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-5,718 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 

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Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores with Coffee (67.8 percent), Corn (58.2 percent) and Live Cattle (56.3 percent) following. On the downside, Cocoa (14.9 percent) and Wheat (16.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

 

Strength Statistics:
Corn (58.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (57.0 percent)
Sugar (46.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (42.0 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (39.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (89.9 percent)
Live Cattle (56.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.4 percent)
Cotton (50.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (45.7 percent)
Cocoa (14.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (16.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (51.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (9.0 percent), Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) and Cocoa (4.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Wheat (-13.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-12.9 percent) followed by Coffee (-11.5 percent).

 

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.7 percent)
Soybeans (-12.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.2 percent)
Live Cattle (51.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.9 percent)
Cotton (-4.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.9 percent)
Cocoa (4.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-11.7 percent)
Wheat (-13.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 220,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	48.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	61.4	13.2
– Net Position:	220,129	-166,318	-53,811
– Gross Longs:	367,371	642,350	120,568
– Gross Shorts:	147,242	808,668	174,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	48.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	5.9	-0.3

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 49,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	53.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	62.2	7.7
– Net Position:	49,970	-61,837	11,867
– Gross Longs:	171,404	396,588	68,600
– Gross Shorts:	121,434	458,425	56,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	56.4	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	4.4	12.5

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	52.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	70.6	4.0
– Net Position:	33,471	-35,318	1,847
– Gross Longs:	45,062	99,068	9,438
– Gross Shorts:	11,591	134,386	7,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	37.2	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	12.5	-4.6

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	55.0	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	63.6	11.3
– Net Position:	83,183	-51,650	-31,533
– Gross Longs:	144,698	327,098	35,752
– Gross Shorts:	61,515	378,748	67,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	68.1	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	12.5	0.5

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	54.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	66.5	5.7
– Net Position:	40,963	-46,758	5,795
– Gross Longs:	74,046	220,234	28,767
– Gross Shorts:	33,083	266,992	22,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	70.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-5.1	6.9

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 112,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	39.7	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.7	72.5	6.0
– Net Position:	112,163	-135,859	23,696
– Gross Longs:	127,369	164,277	48,624
– Gross Shorts:	15,206	300,136	24,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	12.3	55.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-12.0	35.5

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	34.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	57.0	12.4
– Net Position:	61,388	-58,750	-2,638
– Gross Longs:	106,713	91,932	30,154
– Gross Shorts:	45,325	150,682	32,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	32.8	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.8	-52.3	-11.1

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	31.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.3	12.9
– Net Position:	58,006	-49,401	-8,605
– Gross Longs:	102,201	76,592	22,371
– Gross Shorts:	44,195	125,993	30,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	35.1	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.6	-51.1	2.1

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	45.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	70.9	4.1
– Net Position:	44,208	-50,078	5,870
– Gross Longs:	68,979	86,767	13,871
– Gross Shorts:	24,771	136,845	8,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	49.4	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	2.7	11.9

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	48.9	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	48.8	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,778	180	2,598
– Gross Longs:	89,997	146,704	13,549
– Gross Shorts:	92,775	146,524	10,951
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	86.1	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-5.0	7.7

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	40.2	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	37.8	11.7
– Net Position:	-1,908	7,448	-5,540
– Gross Longs:	95,452	126,007	31,104
– Gross Shorts:	97,360	118,559	36,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	70.3	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	9.7	18.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.