COT Week 31 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets rose higher this week led by Corn & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (14,827 contracts) with Soybean Oil (9,351 contracts), Soybeans (7,286 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,296 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,269 contracts) and Live Cattle (962 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-29,665 contracts) and Cocoa (-5,365 contracts) with Cotton (-2,035 contracts), Coffee (-1,357 contracts) and Wheat (-750 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (88.6 percent) leads the soft commodity markets currently – up from last week (86.8 percent) and remaining in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (62.4 percent), Corn (55.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (50.0 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets and all are above the midpoint (50 percent) of their three-year ranges. On the downside, Cocoa (15.7 percent) and Wheat (18.1 percent) come in at the weakest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish readings (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (53.9 percent)
Sugar (43.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (49.8 percent)
Coffee (62.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.6 percent)
Soybeans (42.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (88.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (86.8 percent)
Live Cattle (25.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (45.3 percent)
Cotton (46.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (47.6 percent)
Cocoa (15.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (18.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Lean Hogs (30.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) comes in as the only other positive mover in the latest trends data and this, overall, shows the weakening sentiment for soft commodity speculators over the past six weeks after starting the year with strong bullish sentiment. On the downside, Sugar (-26.4 percent) leads the negative trend scores currently with Soybeans (-26.1 percent), Wheat (-25.8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-25.6 percent) following as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-22.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.2 percent)
Sugar (-26.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.9 percent)
Coffee (-19.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-15.8 percent)
Soybeans (-26.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-25.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-36.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (9.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (30.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (30.5 percent)
Cotton (-18.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.3 percent)
Cocoa (-5.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-25.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.6 percent)

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Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	48.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	59.1	13.0
– Net Position:	201,355	-149,434	-51,921
– Gross Longs:	346,483	647,342	123,650
– Gross Shorts:	145,128	796,776	175,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	50.6	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	25.2	1.0

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	53.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	57.7	8.5
– Net Position:	34,438	-35,229	791
– Gross Longs:	182,484	403,319	65,198
– Gross Shorts:	148,046	438,548	64,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	61.5	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	27.7	-21.5

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	54.7	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	68.2	3.6
– Net Position:	27,284	-27,968	684
– Gross Longs:	44,520	113,679	8,153
– Gross Shorts:	17,236	141,647	7,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	43.9	5.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	22.1	-21.0

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 92,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	54.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	65.5	11.1
– Net Position:	92,527	-65,632	-26,895
– Gross Longs:	146,533	309,594	36,964
– Gross Shorts:	54,006	375,226	63,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	63.9	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	26.1	-2.5

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	57.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	66.1	6.2
– Net Position:	30,381	-31,605	1,224
– Gross Longs:	67,218	215,402	24,405
– Gross Shorts:	36,837	247,007	23,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	80.3	18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	29.0	-34.0

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 109,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	39.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.4	73.4	6.1
– Net Position:	109,776	-132,172	22,396
– Gross Longs:	119,342	157,419	46,629
– Gross Shorts:	9,566	289,591	24,233
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.6	14.2	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-6.4	-10.5

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.3	39.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	53.9	12.4
– Net Position:	36,889	-37,027	138
– Gross Longs:	88,545	98,150	31,097
– Gross Shorts:	51,656	135,177	30,959
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	62.6	82.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	2.2	5.6

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,717 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	34.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	48.8	13.1
– Net Position:	39,717	-31,860	-7,857
– Gross Longs:	86,616	75,563	20,898
– Gross Shorts:	46,899	107,423	28,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	55.8	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-34.1	6.0

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	47.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	68.0	5.1
– Net Position:	37,163	-38,884	1,721
– Gross Longs:	67,401	88,600	11,339
– Gross Shorts:	30,238	127,484	9,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	56.1	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	20.1	-31.8

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	45.6	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	45.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,957	64	1,893
– Gross Longs:	92,787	144,155	12,923
– Gross Shorts:	94,744	144,091	11,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	86.0	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	4.8	3.4

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	40.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	37.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-725	10,888	-10,163
– Gross Longs:	95,807	127,784	27,981
– Gross Shorts:	96,532	116,896	38,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	75.2	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	37.4	-33.8

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.