By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
COT stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.
Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (8,866 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (3,692 contracts) also showing a positive week.
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The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-29,487 contracts) and the VIX (-22,665 contracts) with the Dow Jones Mini (-5,348 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-4,522 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (-1,263 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Highlighting the stock markets COT data this week was the continued drop in speculator bets for the S&P500 mini contracts. The SP500 mini spec positions declined for the fifth time in the past six weeks and have now seen a total of -271,913 contracts fall off the net position since June 14th (when the net position was at a total of +34,278 contracts). The current standing for speculators this week is a total of -237,635 contracts. This marks the lowest level since June 16th of 2020 which was shortly after global markets were rocked by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
| Jul-26-2022 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P500-Mini | 2,322,824 | 9 | -237,635 | 12 | 290,090 | 100 | -52,455 | 15 |
| Nikkei 225 | 13,545 | 8 | -4,390 | 57 | 3,684 | 48 | 706 | 37 |
| Nasdaq-Mini | 267,158 | 52 | 31,809 | 93 | -25,473 | 11 | -6,336 | 35 |
| DowJones-Mini | 73,288 | 32 | -21,185 | 9 | 27,106 | 96 | -5,921 | 7 |
| VIX | 300,870 | 27 | -92,565 | 63 | 99,524 | 38 | -6,959 | 58 |
| Nikkei 225 Yen | 58,458 | 41 | 6,189 | 53 | 22,278 | 83 | -28,467 | 16 |
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (92.8 percent) continues to lead the stock markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (62.9 percent) and the Nikkei USD (56.6 percent) come in as the next highest stocks markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (7.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent), the S&P500-Mini (12.2 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (18.6 percent). These four markets are all in extreme bearish readings.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (74.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (17.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (92.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (10.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (62.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.5 percent)
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (1.9 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. These two markets are the only markets currently with positive six-week scores. The S&P500-Mini (-50.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the EAFE-Mini (-24.8 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-9.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-6.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-50.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (5.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (1.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-15.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-9.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-21.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-24.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-30.9 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.8 | 62.3 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.6 | 29.2 | 10.3 |
| – Net Position: | -92,565 | 99,524 | -6,959 |
| – Gross Longs: | 35,596 | 187,508 | 23,954 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 128,161 | 87,984 | 30,913 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 62.9 | 37.6 | 57.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.2 | 9.2 | -2.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.4 | 77.3 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.6 | 64.8 | 11.8 |
| – Net Position: | -237,635 | 290,090 | -52,455 |
| – Gross Longs: | 240,642 | 1,795,164 | 221,627 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 478,277 | 1,505,074 | 274,082 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 12.2 | 100.0 | 15.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -50.4 | 48.5 | -9.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.8 | 64.0 | 13.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 50.7 | 27.0 | 21.8 |
| – Net Position: | -21,185 | 27,106 | -5,921 |
| – Gross Longs: | 15,955 | 46,903 | 10,025 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 37,140 | 19,797 | 15,946 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.4 | 95.7 | 6.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.4 | 3.3 | -20.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.3 | 53.3 | 12.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.3 | 62.9 | 15.1 |
| – Net Position: | 31,809 | -25,473 | -6,336 |
| – Gross Longs: | 83,491 | 142,520 | 33,962 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 51,682 | 167,993 | 40,298 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 92.8 | 10.8 | 35.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.9 | -2.8 | 2.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.4 | 88.0 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.8 | 68.8 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | -105,211 | 110,009 | -4,798 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,107 | 502,434 | 19,764 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 147,318 | 392,425 | 24,562 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 7.6 | 92.7 | 12.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.6 | 10.7 | -32.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.9 | 60.6 | 28.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.3 | 33.4 | 23.1 |
| – Net Position: | -4,390 | 3,684 | 706 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,478 | 8,204 | 3,832 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,868 | 4,520 | 3,126 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.6 | 48.1 | 37.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 5.1 | 91.9 | 2.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.2 | 88.5 | 1.4 |
| – Net Position: | -16,807 | 13,755 | 3,052 |
| – Gross Longs: | 20,928 | 376,015 | 8,694 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 37,735 | 362,260 | 5,642 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.6 | 86.7 | 45.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.8 | 22.1 | 28.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
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