COT Week 28 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators bets drop lower led by Corn, Coffee & Soybeans

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower net speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (22,357 contracts) and Lean Hogs (9,852 contracts) with Soybean Meal (4,453 contracts), Cocoa (2,935 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,870 contracts) also showing increasing net positions on the week.

The markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-13,549 contracts) and Coffee (-12,479 contracts) with Soybeans (-10,372 contracts), Cotton (-7,860 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,893 contracts) and Wheat (-3,745 contracts) also seeing lower speculator net positions on the week.

The latest data for the soft commodities markets (especially strength trends further below) shows how much the softs sentiment has cooled off after a super-hot start to the year.

 

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Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (83.4 percent) positions lead the strength scores in the soft commodity markets and are currently in a bullish extreme position. Coffee (68.5 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity market in strength scores followed by Corn (61.6 percent) and Sugar (58.4 percent). On the downside, Live Cattle (6.8 percent) and Cocoa (13.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish levels.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (61.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.3 percent)
Sugar (58.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (53.8 percent)
Coffee (68.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (79.3 percent)
Soybeans (49.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (83.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (80.9 percent)
Live Cattle (6.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.3 percent)
Cotton (49.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (54.8 percent)
Cocoa (13.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (10.7 percent)
Wheat (25.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Lean Hogs (17.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Meal (10.9 percent) and Live Cattle (3.0 percent) round out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Soybean Oil (-30.2 percent) and Wheat (-23.0 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-21.6 percent) and Corn (-20.1 percent) followed by Sugar (-19.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-21.4 percent)
vs Sugar previous week (-25.9 percent)
Coffee (-7.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (-21.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-19.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-30.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.8 percent)
Live Cattle (3.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.6 percent)
Cotton (-17.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.0 percent)
Cocoa (-14.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-15.4 percent)
Wheat (-23.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.4 percent)

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Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 247,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 260,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	46.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	61.6	13.1
– Net Position:	247,156	-196,533	-50,623
– Gross Longs:	384,324	624,590	123,773
– Gross Shorts:	137,168	821,123	174,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	43.9	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	22.3	0.1

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	50.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	67.0	7.6
– Net Position:	105,869	-115,779	9,910
– Gross Longs:	188,691	354,173	62,937
– Gross Shorts:	82,822	469,952	53,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	46.2	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	23.7	-36.0

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	52.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	70.6	3.9
– Net Position:	34,308	-35,166	858
– Gross Longs:	49,003	103,113	8,550
– Gross Shorts:	14,695	138,279	7,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	37.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	9.6	-18.6

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	51.3	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	65.6	10.9
– Net Position:	115,119	-87,284	-27,835
– Gross Longs:	171,610	313,986	38,675
– Gross Shorts:	56,491	401,270	66,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	57.5	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	21.3	-0.9

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	59.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	68.0	6.3
– Net Position:	29,788	-32,200	2,412
– Gross Longs:	69,825	219,399	25,642
– Gross Shorts:	40,037	251,599	23,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	76.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.2	36.0	-55.3

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 100,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	43.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.6	73.2	5.5
– Net Position:	100,397	-119,787	19,390
– Gross Longs:	110,774	170,710	41,383
– Gross Shorts:	10,377	290,497	21,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	20.7	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-5.4	-47.0

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	41.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	49.5	11.3
– Net Position:	21,899	-22,536	637
– Gross Longs:	92,671	111,204	31,321
– Gross Shorts:	70,772	133,740	30,684
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	82.5	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-5.4	5.6

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	39.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	48.2	14.1
– Net Position:	25,059	-16,735	-8,324
– Gross Longs:	66,221	76,851	19,114
– Gross Shorts:	41,162	93,586	27,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	73.7	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-17.2	-6.8

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	43.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	69.5	5.0
– Net Position:	42,685	-45,740	3,055
– Gross Longs:	67,517	76,796	11,861
– Gross Shorts:	24,832	122,536	8,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	51.3	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.6	-45.2

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	46.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	45.5	3.9
– Net Position:	-4,180	2,102	2,078
– Gross Longs:	90,985	141,970	14,013
– Gross Shorts:	95,165	139,868	11,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	87.9	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	16.0	-21.0

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	42.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	40.7	12.9
– Net Position:	4,639	5,041	-9,680
– Gross Longs:	84,206	122,406	27,418
– Gross Shorts:	79,567	117,365	37,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	66.8	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	33.7	-31.2

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.