COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th.

Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts).

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US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.0	5.0	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	81.5	3.2
– Net Position:	35,386	-41,548	6,162
– Gross Longs:	42,349	2,717	7,897
– Gross Shorts:	6,963	44,265	1,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	4.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	5.6	83.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	5.3	5.7

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	54.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	66.8	7.4
– Net Position:	47,581	-85,057	37,476
– Gross Longs:	217,899	383,827	89,120
– Gross Shorts:	170,318	468,884	51,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	51.7	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-16.6	15.7

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	58.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	57.4	15.0
– Net Position:	2,237	2,874	-5,111
– Gross Longs:	50,151	114,901	24,257
– Gross Shorts:	47,914	112,027	29,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	31.4	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.8	-27.6	10.8

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	83.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	40.3	19.6
– Net Position:	-66,162	86,256	-20,094
– Gross Longs:	10,425	166,645	18,973
– Gross Shorts:	76,587	80,389	39,067
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	79.0	6.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	0.7	5.2

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	72.6	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	31.2	39.2
– Net Position:	-9,715	18,888	-9,173
– Gross Longs:	3,652	33,069	8,654
– Gross Shorts:	13,367	14,181	17,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	52.1	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	4.8	-11.9

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	40.4	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	50.9	17.5
– Net Position:	12,170	-15,116	2,946
– Gross Longs:	54,424	58,524	28,287
– Gross Shorts:	42,254	73,640	25,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	46.6	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-16.4	0.9

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	81.0	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	30.2	15.9
– Net Position:	-86,694	97,684	-10,990
– Gross Longs:	11,692	155,928	19,706
– Gross Shorts:	98,386	58,244	30,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	91.8	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-2.3	1.1

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	55.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	36.5	8.6
– Net Position:	-9,333	12,020	-2,687
– Gross Longs:	24,923	35,432	2,838
– Gross Shorts:	34,256	23,412	5,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	48.9	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	2.6	-13.7

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.4	56.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	64.0	2.1
– Net Position:	8,974	-12,054	3,080
– Gross Longs:	59,485	84,673	6,250
– Gross Shorts:	50,511	96,727	3,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	67.8	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-8.0	3.0

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.1	16.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	55.5	2.4
– Net Position:	23,760	-26,225	2,465
– Gross Longs:	51,868	11,101	4,095
– Gross Shorts:	28,108	37,326	1,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.1	-36.1	31.8

 

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Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.8	42.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	86.4	4.2
– Net Position:	16,164	-17,239	1,075
– Gross Longs:	19,808	16,440	2,700
– Gross Shorts:	3,644	33,679	1,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	46.0	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.2	-12.7

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.0	3.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.0	5.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-215	-213	428
– Gross Longs:	8,307	369	1,364
– Gross Shorts:	8,522	582	936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.2	22.8	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-9.8	-6.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.