Markets ponder Trump tariff confusion

• Trump tariff remarks fan uncertainty

• FXTM USDInd ↓ 1% this week

• Fed minutes next major risk event

We are just a few days into 2025, and markets are buzzing with activity.

FXTM’s USDInd has shed 1% this week with prices testing the 108.00 support.

• US500 ↑ 1.6% YTD

• XAUUSD ↑ 0.7% YTD

• BITCOIN ↑ 8% YTD

What is causing this volatility?

The simple answer is Donald Trump.

There is a growing sense of anticipation ahead of his inauguration on Monday 20th January.

However, the recent burst of market volatility can be attributed to market confusion around Trump tariff plans.

In the previous session, the Washington Post reported that Trump’s aides were considering softer tariffs. According to the report, the aides explored tariffs only covering critical imports.

This cooled fears around rising US inflation, further reducing Fed cut bets – ultimately hitting the USD.

However, Trump later denied these claims through his Truth Social platform.

What does this mean?

These conflicting reports may raise questions about Trump’s ability to move ahead with aggressive tariffs promised during his presidential campaign.

Back in November 2024 we highlighted how Trump’s tariffs will be a major theme this year.

In our 2025 market outlook, we stated that his return could dominate global financial markets.

Any fresh developments or conflicting reports concerning Trump’s tariffs could spell more volatility.

By the way…

The next market-moving event could be the Fed minutes published on Wednesday 8th January.

Back in December, Fed Chair Powell said that the decision to cut rates was a “closer call”. If the minutes strike a hawkish note, this could boost the dollar while weakening gold and US equities.

Over the past 12 months, this is how the Fed minutes have impacted these assets in the 6 hours post release:

• Bitcoin: ↑ 2.0% or ↓ 1.5%

• NAS100: ↑ 1.9% or ↓ 0.9%

• US500: ↑ 1.2% or ↓ 0.6%

• XAUUSD: ↑ 0.3% or ↓ 0.3%

• USDInd:  ↑ 0.1% or ↓ 0.2%