COT Currency Speculator’s bullish bets for Brazilian Real jump by most on record

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong gains in bullish bets for the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by the largest one-week amount (+33,599 contracts) on record, according the CFTC data going back to 1995. This surge in bullish sentiment pushed the overall net speculator standing for Brazilian Reals into bullish territory for the first time in nineteen weeks, dating back to September 28th.

There has been a surge of trading going on in this market over the past couple of weeks with open interest increasing dramatically. Open interest (OI) for the Brazilian currency jumped on February 2nd to a total of 76,175 contracts which marked the highest OI level of the previous 381 weeks, dating all the way back to September of 2014. The previous ten weeks had seen an average open interest of less than half (ten week average of 33,492 contracts) of the February 2nd total. This week’s open interest fell a bit to 64,283 contracts but still was the second highest open interest of the past thirty-six weeks and with all this activity going on, this is a currency to watch.

Joining the Brazil real (33,599 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (9,126 contracts), Japanese yen (1,492 contracts), British pound sterling (15,060 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,332 contracts), Mexican peso (514 contracts) and the Russian ruble (1,292 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-806 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,912 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,378 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,160 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (-460 contracts).

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US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.3	5.9	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	82.0	3.3
– Net Position:	33,765	-40,826	7,061
– Gross Longs:	40,370	3,150	8,841
– Gross Shorts:	6,605	43,976	1,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	5.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	6.8	93.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.7	15.2

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	65.1	7.6
– Net Position:	38,842	-73,252	34,410
– Gross Longs:	218,973	382,426	87,725
– Gross Shorts:	180,131	455,678	53,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	55.0	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-15.5	15.3

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	60.7	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	56.0	14.0
– Net Position:	-8,545	9,323	-778
– Gross Longs:	44,709	120,220	26,951
– Gross Shorts:	53,254	110,897	27,729
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	35.2	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.4	-30.0	17.8

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	81.2	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	42.6	17.5
– Net Position:	-59,148	75,957	-16,809
– Gross Longs:	15,692	159,601	17,609
– Gross Shorts:	74,840	83,644	34,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.7	73.9	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	1.8	5.3

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.0	72.8	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	32.1	41.8
– Net Position:	-9,399	16,918	-7,519
– Gross Longs:	1,234	30,215	9,838
– Gross Shorts:	10,633	13,297	17,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	49.9	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.9	-8.8

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	40.2	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	51.9	17.5
– Net Position:	14,886	-16,958	2,072
– Gross Longs:	54,762	58,404	27,480
– Gross Shorts:	39,876	75,362	25,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.1	45.4	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-16.7	-2.2

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	79.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	28.9	16.3
– Net Position:	-85,741	98,357	-12,616
– Gross Longs:	17,323	155,203	19,485
– Gross Shorts:	103,064	56,846	32,101
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	92.3	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	-0.8	12.5

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	61.2	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	38.0	10.0
– Net Position:	-10,366	12,733	-2,367
– Gross Longs:	17,168	33,591	3,097
– Gross Shorts:	27,534	20,858	5,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	50.0	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	4.1	-7.9

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	61.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	64.3	2.4
– Net Position:	1,244	-4,073	2,829
– Gross Longs:	45,097	82,287	6,067
– Gross Shorts:	43,853	86,360	3,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	71.1	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-5.2	9.1

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 33,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	17.6	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	52.5	2.3
– Net Position:	20,246	-22,432	2,186
– Gross Longs:	49,170	11,336	3,666
– Gross Shorts:	28,924	33,768	1,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.7	3.5	91.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.2	-37.2	28.4

 

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Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	43.4	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	86.3	3.0
– Net Position:	15,443	-16,839	1,396
– Gross Longs:	19,657	17,021	2,555
– Gross Shorts:	4,214	33,860	1,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.9	46.9	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-15.9	-0.7

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	3.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.6	5.7	9.8
– Net Position:	-319	-189	508
– Gross Longs:	7,751	376	1,474
– Gross Shorts:	8,070	565	966
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	24.8	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	2.9	-5.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.