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COT Soft Commodity Speculators push Soybean bullish bets higher to 22-week high

January 3, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest release was delayed by the CFTC due to the New Year’s holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 28th 2021 (delayed holiday release) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data last week was once again the Soybeans bullish bets that keep on rising. The speculator positions increased for a fourth straight week and by a total of 69,968 contracts over that 4-week time-frame. This bullishness has boosted the Soybean speculator position to its highest level since July 27th, a span of twenty-two weeks.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets last week were Corn (12,856 contracts), Soybeans (22,408 contracts), Soybean Oil (201 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,610 contracts),  Lean Hogs (1,094 contracts), Cotton (3,152 contracts) and Cocoa (2,547 contracts). The commodities with lower bets on the week were Wheat (-2,833 contracts), Sugar (-4,512 contracts), Coffee (-869 contracts) and Live Cattle (-13,158 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-28-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,867,339 0 338,429 20 -373,092 71 34,663 64
Gold 508,912 22 213,156 56 -245,664 43 32,508 56
Silver 141,246 8 26,458 49 -41,928 58 15,470 30
Copper 180,736 13 14,383 53 -19,679 46 5,296 56
Palladium 9,403 13 -3,109 4 3,230 95 -121 38
Platinum 60,353 22 4,469 9 -10,655 94 6,186 48
Natural Gas 1,110,532 0 -146,217 35 115,610 67 30,607 56
Brent 215,921 52 -20,716 84 17,594 18 3,122 52
Heating Oil 302,721 3 4,897 50 -21,060 49 16,163 54
Soybeans 647,225 9 125,285 61 -93,079 44 -32,206 18
Corn 1,522,692 25 458,176 89 -411,793 13 -46,383 16
Coffee 261,263 30 55,265 89 -58,015 14 2,750 7
Sugar 864,262 9 184,686 75 -209,011 29 24,325 38
Wheat 357,381 11 9,132 55 -1,601 39 -7,531 66

 

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CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 458,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 445,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 43.7 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 70.8 11.5
– Net Position: 458,176 -411,793 -46,383
– Gross Longs: 536,934 665,968 129,328
– Gross Shorts: 78,758 1,077,761 175,711
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.6 13.3 16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -10.1 7.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 184,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 189,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 49.5 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 73.7 6.3
– Net Position: 184,686 -209,011 24,325
– Gross Longs: 233,490 427,847 78,835
– Gross Shorts: 48,804 636,858 54,510
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.6 28.5 37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 12.7 -30.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 48.6 3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 70.8 2.6
– Net Position: 55,265 -58,015 2,750
– Gross Longs: 69,178 127,068 9,647
– Gross Shorts: 13,913 185,083 6,897
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.7 14.4 7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.5 -8.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 125,285 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.0 52.5 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 66.8 12.5
– Net Position: 125,285 -93,079 -32,206
– Gross Longs: 168,011 339,477 48,633
– Gross Shorts: 42,726 432,556 80,839
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.3 43.9 18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.3 -20.7 16.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 47.5 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.7 76.9 6.4
– Net Position: 91,744 -114,144 22,400
– Gross Longs: 110,165 184,560 47,358
– Gross Shorts: 18,421 298,704 24,958
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.5 17.4 60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.4 -8.0 -13.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 66,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.4 37.3 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.5 56.3 13.1
– Net Position: 66,356 -57,712 -8,644
– Gross Longs: 113,339 112,965 31,159
– Gross Shorts: 46,983 170,677 39,803
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 60.4 66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -13.6 -1.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 36.3 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.3 54.9 15.0
– Net Position: 55,296 -39,273 -16,023
– Gross Longs: 85,559 76,686 15,634
– Gross Shorts: 30,263 115,959 31,657
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.2 42.1 11.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.9 -11.1 0.6

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.1 35.3 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 78.9 2.9
– Net Position: 90,889 -102,513 11,624
– Gross Longs: 103,562 82,804 18,544
– Gross Shorts: 12,673 185,317 6,920
– Long to Short Ratio: 8.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.6 18.0 86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.2 10.8 -5.5

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.9 52.1 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 54.2 4.2
– Net Position: 3,250 -4,886 1,636
– Gross Longs: 60,559 121,644 11,367
– Gross Shorts: 57,309 126,530 9,731
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.3 74.5 27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 1.9 -10.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 37.6 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.5 38.0 10.5
– Net Position: 9,132 -1,601 -7,531
– Gross Longs: 103,696 134,206 29,825
– Gross Shorts: 94,564 135,807 37,356
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.8 39.3 65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.6 11.5 -8.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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