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COT Soft Commodities Speculators boost Soybean Meal bullish bets to 34-week high

January 8, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 4th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the strong gains in the Soybean Meal futures bets. Speculative positions have risen for four consecutive weeks and by a total of 46,386 contracts over that time-frame. This bullishness has pushed the speculator positions to the highest level of the past thirty-four weeks, dating back to May 11th of 2021. The current strength level (spec level compared to its past 3-year range) is at 86.8 percent, which is a bullish-extreme reading and means that speculators are at the top of their range in terms of bullish sentiment.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Soybeans (5,271 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,115 contracts), Soybean Meal (7,285 contracts), Live Cattle (6,276 contracts), Cotton (6,602 contracts) and Cocoa (3,219 contracts).

Markets with lower bets this week were Corn (-12,695 contracts), Sugar (-11,699 contracts), Coffee (-700 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,350 contracts) and Wheat (-1,855 contracts).

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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-04-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,887,131 3 332,825 15 -369,956 77 37,131 67
Gold 502,717 20 211,355 55 -237,458 45 26,103 38
Silver 139,521 6 30,919 53 -43,973 56 13,054 16
Copper 185,905 16 19,759 57 -24,845 42 5,086 55
Palladium 9,480 13 -3,192 3 3,344 96 -152 36
Platinum 58,275 19 6,762 12 -12,185 92 5,423 38
Natural Gas 1,117,606 2 -141,907 36 110,122 66 31,785 59
Brent 203,528 42 -11,255 100 6,990 0 4,265 67
Heating Oil 320,686 14 7,492 53 -29,819 40 22,327 76
Soybeans 648,148 10 130,556 63 -91,893 44 -38,663 8
Corn 1,520,233 24 445,481 87 -382,800 17 -62,681 7
Coffee 262,231 31 54,565 88 -57,751 15 3,186 10
Sugar 873,918 11 172,987 72 -192,794 32 19,807 32
Wheat 359,139 12 4,080 50 6,236 47 -10,316 52

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 445,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 458,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.7 43.8 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 69.0 13.2
– Net Position: 445,481 -382,800 -62,681
– Gross Longs: 526,997 665,410 138,025
– Gross Shorts: 81,516 1,048,210 200,706
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.9 17.4 7.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.6 -2.7 -5.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 172,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 184,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.2 50.3 8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 72.4 6.5
– Net Position: 172,987 -192,794 19,807
– Gross Longs: 228,567 439,824 76,229
– Gross Shorts: 55,580 632,618 56,422
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.2 31.6 32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.7 19.7 -34.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 47.4 3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 69.4 2.5
– Net Position: 54,565 -57,751 3,186
– Gross Longs: 68,421 124,348 9,757
– Gross Shorts: 13,856 182,099 6,571
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.2 14.6 10.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.7 10.8 -2.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 130,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,285 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.7 53.2 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 67.4 13.3
– Net Position: 130,556 -91,893 -38,663
– Gross Longs: 173,162 344,990 47,288
– Gross Shorts: 42,606 436,883 85,951
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.6 44.2 7.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -14.8 -2.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 99,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 46.0 11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 77.7 5.5
– Net Position: 99,029 -123,394 24,365
– Gross Longs: 119,027 179,465 45,616
– Gross Shorts: 19,998 302,859 21,251
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 12.2 68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.8 -8.2 -9.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 71,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 35.1 9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.5 53.7 12.5
– Net Position: 71,879 -61,531 -10,348
– Gross Longs: 116,678 116,043 31,098
– Gross Shorts: 44,799 177,574 41,446
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.3 57.2 61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -6.7 4.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 56,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.5 36.2 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.6 55.2 14.5
– Net Position: 56,389 -41,396 -14,993
– Gross Longs: 85,903 78,722 16,461
– Gross Shorts: 29,514 120,118 31,454
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.4 39.9 15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 -3.8 10.3

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 97,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.0 33.9 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.9 78.7 3.1
– Net Position: 97,491 -109,084 11,593
– Gross Longs: 109,464 82,584 19,240
– Gross Shorts: 11,973 191,668 7,647
– Long to Short Ratio: 9.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.8 14.2 85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 6.3 -6.5

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.9 52.5 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.1 56.2 4.3
– Net Position: 6,469 -8,599 2,130
– Gross Longs: 58,024 122,449 12,205
– Gross Shorts: 51,555 131,048 10,075
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.2 71.2 32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.6 8.1 3.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.6 39.6 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 37.8 11.3
– Net Position: 4,080 6,236 -10,316
– Gross Longs: 102,552 142,158 30,223
– Gross Shorts: 98,472 135,922 40,539
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 46.9 52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 38.1 -8.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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