COT Stock Market Speculators dropped their VIX bearish bets to 80-week low

December 11, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 7th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT stock market data is the continued cool off in the VIX Volatility futures bearish bets. The speculative net position in the VIX futures saw bearish bets fall by 13,751 contracts this week following a 20,782 contract improvement in positions last week.

The stock markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were VIX (13,751 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (2,283 contracts) and the Russell 2000 Mini (4,140 contracts).

The markets with lower speculator bets this week were S&P500 Mini (-14,329 contracts), Nasdaq Mini (-8,155 contracts), Nikkei 225 USD (-557 contracts), MSCI EAFE Min (-2,227 contracts), MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-2,219 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-07-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini 2,514,383 6 165,396 91 -182,926 33 17,530 30
Nikkei 225 25,848 33 1,211 62 -3,259 41 2,048 53
Nasdaq-Mini 251,880 43 25,778 89 -24,885 11 -893 42
DowJones-Mini 103,059 74 -4,553 30 3,180 66 1,373 46
VIX 300,082 27 -47,403 65 55,699 37 -8,296 25
Nikkei 225 Yen 61,968 46 -2,432 16 25,719 94 -23,287 34

 


VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 46.6 6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.1 28.1 9.3
– Net Position: -47,403 55,699 -8,296
– Gross Longs: 72,815 139,911 19,632
– Gross Shorts: 120,218 84,212 27,928
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 37.0 24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.6 -19.7 -1.4

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 165,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.4 69.0 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.8 76.3 9.8
– Net Position: 165,396 -182,926 17,530
– Gross Longs: 437,939 1,734,746 263,698
– Gross Shorts: 272,543 1,917,672 246,168
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.3 33.1 30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -10.1 -2.6

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 47.2 15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.0 44.1 14.5
– Net Position: -4,553 3,180 1,373
– Gross Longs: 37,728 48,612 16,285
– Gross Shorts: 42,281 45,432 14,912
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.2 66.3 45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 10.3 -11.1

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 49.4 16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 59.3 16.4
– Net Position: 25,778 -24,885 -893
– Gross Longs: 80,716 124,386 40,430
– Gross Shorts: 54,938 149,271 41,323
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.4 11.2 42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.2 -19.3 5.1

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -27,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.9 77.9 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.8 75.2 4.4
– Net Position: -27,001 12,683 14,318
– Gross Longs: 59,732 359,571 34,544
– Gross Shorts: 86,733 346,888 20,226
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.0 52.5 73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.7 -18.3 2.2

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.3 37.9 23.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.6 50.5 15.2
– Net Position: 1,211 -3,259 2,048
– Gross Longs: 3,959 9,791 5,984
– Gross Shorts: 2,748 13,050 3,936
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.9 41.1 53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.2 -4.4 -2.2

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 90.5 2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 93.2 1.4
– Net Position: 6,409 -10,709 4,300
– Gross Longs: 26,370 362,582 10,038
– Gross Shorts: 19,961 373,291 5,738
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.2 79.4 54.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -0.6 -2.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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