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COT Energy Speculators trim Heating Oil’s bullish bets to lowest level since May

December 4, 2021

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 30th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT energy data is the heating oil speculator bets that fell for a seventh consecutive week. Speculator positions in heating oil have fallen by a total of -27,912 contracts over these past seven weeks and have declined sharply since reaching a multi-year bullish high in October. The heating oil speculator positioning has been bullish throughout the year and climbed to the multi-year high on October 12th with a total of 39,137 contracts. This was the most bullish standing in the past one hundred and fifty-six weeks, dating back all the way to October 16th of 2018. Since then, heating oil bets have streaked lower to the least bullish speculative level since May 11th at a total of just 11,225 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-30-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,033,286	14	387,234	35	-432,885	53	45,651	79
Gold	531,868	33	225,860	60	-258,603	39	32,743	57
Silver	138,003	5	38,434	61	-52,009	48	13,575	19
Copper	184,214	15	9,191	49	-15,763	49	6,572	63
Palladium	9,621	14	-2,973	2	3,277	98	-304	27
Platinum	62,385	26	8,948	15	-14,696	88	5,748	42
Natural Gas	1,269,879	36	-132,678	39	93,560	60	39,118	78
Brent	217,781	53	-15,494	93	12,212	8	3,282	54
Heating Oil	298,300	0	11,225	59	-26,834	43	15,609	52
Soybeans	671,433	15	55,317	44	-16,980	62	-38,337	8
Corn	1,405,105	5	394,912	80	-341,094	23	-53,818	12
Coffee	266,001	33	66,025	97	-69,144	6	3,119	10
Sugar	882,199	15	214,995	81	-242,927	22	27,932	42
Wheat	371,575	19	18,294	63	-10,430	31	-7,864	64

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 387,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 407,657 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	34.9	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	56.2	3.4
– Net Position:	387,234	-432,885	45,651
– Gross Longs:	511,862	710,000	114,548
– Gross Shorts:	124,628	1,142,885	68,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	52.7	79.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	12.1	2.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	43.3	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	37.7	2.0
– Net Position:	-15,494	12,212	3,282
– Gross Longs:	44,183	94,392	7,626
– Gross Shorts:	59,677	82,180	4,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.3	8.5	53.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.0	-19.7	-17.9

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -132,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	43.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	35.8	1.7
– Net Position:	-132,678	93,560	39,118
– Gross Longs:	246,559	548,661	60,357
– Gross Shorts:	379,237	455,101	21,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	60.4	78.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	2.2	-13.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 45,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,380 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	46.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	64.5	4.8
– Net Position:	45,614	-50,163	4,549
– Gross Longs:	92,808	133,858	18,336
– Gross Shorts:	47,194	184,021	13,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	86.9	38.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	7.9	-28.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	49.1	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	58.1	8.3
– Net Position:	11,225	-26,834	15,609
– Gross Longs:	41,864	146,392	40,262
– Gross Shorts:	30,639	173,226	24,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	42.7	52.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	25.0	-28.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.9	34.1	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	91.3	5.1	0.2
– Net Position:	-11,948	11,380	568
– Gross Longs:	23,942	13,396	627
– Gross Shorts:	35,890	2,016	59
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	6.6 to 1	10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.8	37.1	49.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-17.7	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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