The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.10.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1609
• Prev Close: 1.1632
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

Another Fed member, Waller, believes that the US Central Bank no longer needs to stimulate the economy. This means that it is very likely that the Fed will officially announce the beginning of the QE program reduction in early November. This will positively affect the dollar index and negatively affect euro quotes, as the ECB will keep the amount of stimulus until the end of the year.

• Support levels: 1.1615, 1.1548, 1.1502, 1.1453
• Resistance levels: 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend on the hour timeframe has changed to bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buying positions from the support levels near the moving average or the buyer’s initiative areas. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels of the higher timeframe.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1548 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3725
• Prev Close: 1.3790
• % chg. over the last day: +0.47%

The UK is looking to provide cheaper energy by changing its electricity and gas cost policy. According to the Financial Times, the UK supply chain crisis will continue at least until 2023. Governor of the Bank of England Bailey said that the bank is ready to act decisively to contain inflation, which strengthens the expectations of increasing interest rates in the current year.

• Support levels: 1.3739, 1.3685, 1.3648, 1.3617, 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360, 1.3282
• Resistance levels: 1.3812, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish. The British pound is strengthening due to its direct correlation with oil prices and the weakness of the dollar index. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of buyers’ weakness. Buy trades should be considered only within the day and only from the initiative zone of the buyers. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels of the higher timeframe, but after an additional confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative because the buyers’ pressure is higher now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3648 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will likely be broken.

• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 114.28
• Prev Close: 114.37
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08%

The Japanese yen hit a 4-year low against the US dollar. Traders are selling the yen in exchange for the dollar amid rising long-term US interest rates and rising oil prices which is heating inflation fears.

• Support levels: 114.48, 114.08, 113.66, 112.19, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
• Resistance levels: 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the price tried to move below the triangle pattern, but the buyers sharply returned the price back, forming a false breakdown zone below. The MACD indicator has become positive again. However, on higher time frames, there is still a divergence, which means that growth is limited and correction is expected shortly. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average since the price has deviated greatly from the average line. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher timeframe, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2376
• Prev Close: 1.2364
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index decreased yesterday, while oil prices increased. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair continued its downtrend due to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.

• Support levels: 1.2260
• Resistance levels: 1.2425 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price has already failed to reach the lower line of the descending channel, indicating the weakness of the sellers. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but there are still signs of divergence on higher time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to search for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades should be considered only on lower time frames from the support levels if there is the buyer’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2518 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).