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COT Soft Commodities Charts: Coffee bets remain in bullish extreme level for 26th week

October 22, 2021

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 19th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT Soft Commodities data is the speculator’s Coffee bullish bets which dipped by just -196 net contracts. Despite the small shortfall this week, Coffee speculative positions continue to be at an extreme bullish level and had risen for nine straight weeks from August 17th to October 12th to a 20-week high. The speculator strength index score (current levels compared to past three years) has continued to remain in an extreme bullish score (above 80 percent) for 26 weeks in a row and is currently at 98 percent. A potential coffee supply shortage as well as speculative effect on coffee prices can be seen in the rapidly appreciating coffee price (see chart below in coffee section).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-19-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,205,089 44 429,594 49 -473,181 41 43,587 76
Gold 485,974 22 193,349 56 -219,190 43 25,841 43
Silver 143,664 10 30,356 53 -44,580 55 14,224 23
Copper 225,225 44 40,584 72 -46,208 28 5,624 58
Palladium 9,061 12 -2,416 5 2,355 93 61 48
Platinum 58,570 19 14,844 24 -21,176 79 6,332 50
Natural Gas 1,318,498 48 -131,070 39 86,574 58 44,496 92
Brent 202,714 41 -28,018 73 23,413 23 4,605 76
Heating Oil 415,556 56 26,441 81 -50,250 18 23,809 81
Soybeans 750,939 33 43,541 41 -9,575 64 -33,966 15
Corn 1,404,126 5 277,029 65 -218,172 41 -58,857 9
Coffee 304,874 62 68,889 99 -73,100 3 4,211 17
Sugar 871,316 21 211,550 80 -243,564 22 32,014 47
Wheat 394,949 27 -8,566 40 18,180 59 -9,614 56

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 279,288 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.8 49.4 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.1 64.9 13.3
– Net Position: 277,029 -218,172 -58,857
– Gross Longs: 390,081 693,006 128,301
– Gross Shorts: 113,052 911,178 187,158
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 40.8 9.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 -2.8 6.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 211,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -34,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 43.9 9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.1 71.8 6.2
– Net Position: 211,550 -243,564 32,014
– Gross Longs: 273,687 382,386 85,819
– Gross Shorts: 62,137 625,950 53,805
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.1 22.0 47.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.9 15.6 -12.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.9 40.5 3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 64.5 2.4
– Net Position: 68,889 -73,100 4,211
– Gross Longs: 85,100 123,540 11,611
– Gross Shorts: 16,211 196,640 7,400
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.6 2.5 17.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -8.7 -5.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 59.7 6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.7 61.0 11.2
– Net Position: 43,541 -9,575 -33,966
– Gross Longs: 138,576 448,243 50,125
– Gross Shorts: 95,035 457,818 84,091
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 63.6 15.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.6 8.3 -14.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 87,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.5 48.3 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 71.7 4.9
– Net Position: 87,085 -97,547 10,462
– Gross Longs: 114,434 200,793 30,908
– Gross Shorts: 27,349 298,340 20,446
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 31.0 52.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.2 -20.3 11.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.7 48.7 12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.7 56.0 7.1
– Net Position: 9,114 -32,188 23,074
– Gross Longs: 87,127 214,800 54,299
– Gross Shorts: 78,013 246,988 31,225
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.2 63.6 63.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.3 2.0 28.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 43.3 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 57.7 13.3
– Net Position: 48,491 -39,825 -8,666
– Gross Longs: 94,585 119,928 28,083
– Gross Shorts: 46,094 159,753 36,749
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.6 75.2 66.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.1 18.4 4.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.8 31.7 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.3 52.4 14.2
– Net Position: 65,182 -49,056 -16,126
– Gross Longs: 99,071 75,285 17,573
– Gross Shorts: 33,889 124,341 33,699
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.6 31.8 5.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 12.1 -1.0

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 104,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.9 37.9 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2 79.3 3.2
– Net Position: 104,423 -117,781 13,358
– Gross Longs: 116,323 107,844 22,504
– Gross Shorts: 11,900 225,625 9,146
– Long to Short Ratio: 9.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.2 9.1 96.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 1.8 8.8

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 49.8 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.9 60.6 3.1
– Net Position: 22,821 -27,077 4,256
– Gross Longs: 67,550 124,427 11,933
– Gross Shorts: 44,729 151,504 7,677
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 54.7 56.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 6.5 3.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 41.0 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 36.4 10.3
– Net Position: -8,566 18,180 -9,614
– Gross Longs: 97,532 162,052 31,200
– Gross Shorts: 106,098 143,872 40,814
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 58.5 55.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.2 25.3 0.5

 

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).







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