The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.09.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1687
• Prev Close: 1.1738
• % chg. over the last day: +0.44%

In general, the business activity index in the manufacturing and service sectors decreases in European countries (Germany, France). It indicates a slowdown in economic recovery. Economists expect that the ECB will also start to reduce the asset purchase program until the end of this year. Otherwise, the further growth of inflation cannot be avoided.

• Support levels: 1.1704, 1.1620
• Resistance levels: 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading near the priority change level. The MACD indicator shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, buy deals can be considered from the priority change level. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average or after the breakdown of priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

• – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – US New Homes Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3612
• Prev Close: 1.3719
• % chg. over the last day: +0.79%

The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.1% and the volume of government bond purchases at GBP 875 billion. On the back of this news, the British pound sharply strengthened yesterday. But the index of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors has declined over the last month, indicating that the recovery is slowing down.

• Support levels: 1.3685, 1.3629, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3769, 1.3812, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. But the MACD indicator became positive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average line. Buy deals should be considered only intraday and only with short targets from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3812 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.73
• Prev Close: 110.32
• % chg. over the last day: +0.54%

Japan’s consumer price index has not changed compared to the previous month, which put an end to its decline for the first time in 13 months. The core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices, decreased by 0.5% in August compared to a year earlier. The Japanese yen lost its positions against the dollar on this news.

• Support levels: 110.40, 109.94, 109.63, 109.28, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 110.65, 110.95

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bullish. Against the background of the Japanese Yen weakness, the USD/JPY quotes sharply rushed up. The price broke through the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become positive. There are signs of overbuying but no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels after a small pullback, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.63, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

• – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2772
• Prev Close: 1.2655
• % chg. over the last day: -0.92%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index decreased yesterday, while oil prices increased sharply. As a result, on the background of the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair declined.

• Support levels: 1.2646, 1.2583, 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2726, 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

From the technical point of view, the situation is uncertain. The local uptrend is about to end, as the price is trading below the moving average and has reached the priority change level. The MACD indicator is negative with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to buy from the priority change level after additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the uptrend will likely be broken.