The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.05.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2027
• Prev Close: 1.2062
• % chg. over the last day: +0.29%

After Friday’s sharp drop, Monday was relatively calm for the EUR/USD currency pair. As a result, the price slightly recovered its positions and closed near moving average at the end of the trading session.

• Support levels: 1.2021, 1.1957, 1.1835
• Resistance levels: 1.2074, 1.2108, 1.2145, 1.2176, 1.2212, 1.2243

The MACD indicator quickly returned to zero marks, where it was on Friday before the fall. But the price returned only to the middle of the movement. Indicates a weakness of the buyers, so the most reasonable thing on the EUR/USD pair is to look for sell trades from the nearest resistance levels. But negative statistics are expected on the U.S. trade balance today, which might push the euro a little higher.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks up through the 1.2108 level and holds above, the general uptrend will continue with a high probability.

• – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3807
• Prev Close: 1.3907
• % chg. over the last day: +0.72%

Despite the bank holiday in the U.K. on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair rose by 100 pips. The price broke through and held above the moving average, but it failed to break out the 1.3913 level at the first attempt.

• Support levels: 1.3864, 1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
• Resistance levels: 1.3913, 1.3996, 1.4149

Sellers need to hold the 1.3913 resistance level to remain in the local downtrend. But given that the up movement to the resistance level was by impulse candlesticks, it is likely that the buyers will retake control.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks up through the 1.3913 resistance level and holds above, the bullish scenario will become active again with a high probability.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.24
• Prev Close: 109.06
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

On Monday, the currency pair USD/JPY fell by fast impulse. Last days MACD was actively showing the divergence. Also, the price strongly deviated from the moving average, so this correction was not a surprise.

• Support levels: 108.87, 108.44, 108.19,107.77, 107.47, 107.04
• Resistance levels: 109.23, 109.64, 109.95, 110.51

MACD went into the negative area, but the price is still above the moving average. Therefore, the best strategy for USD/JPY will be looking for purchases from the nearest support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price drops below 108.44, the general downtrend will continue with a high probability.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2286
• Prev Close: 1.2275
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09%

The USD/CAD currency pair continues to trade in a narrow range. The support level of 1.2280 is no longer relevant, the support level of 1.2270 instead of it. MACD indicator continues to show a divergence.

• Support levels: 1.2270, 1.2165
• Resistance levels: 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519, 1.2618

The trend remains bearish, so it is most reasonable to look for sell trades from the resistance levels. The entry price is not the most optimal now, so it is better to wait for a rebound or look for purchases within the intraday uptrend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2414 resistance level and holds above, a local corrective uptrend will be formed with a high probability.

• – Canadian Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).