The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1813
• Prev Close: 1.1768
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38%

Higher-than-expected US GDP data pushed the euro down even further. The yield spread between German Gilts and US Treasuries narrowed sharply by almost 40 basis points to -200.9%. It indicates the likely continuation of the pair’s fall in the medium term.

• Support levels: 1.1746, 1.1688
• Resistance levels: 1.1889, 1.1990

The main scenario for EUR/USD is selling. The ADX shows strong bearish pressure on the H4 timeframe. On the D1, the trend potential index shows a change in direction from north to south. But the H1 readings indicated an impending pullback, as the ADX declined during the last downward impulse, and a divergence formed on the MACD.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1851, the pair may start a corrective rise to 1.1889 or higher.

• – The German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – The US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3685
• Prev Close: 1.3737
• % chg. over the last day: +0,38%

The sterling stood out from all the group 10 currency pairs that declined against the dollar. The beginning of negotiations between the EU and the UK for the market is a signal for the warming of the relationship between the two sides, as a result of which the British currency is again showing signs of developing growth.

• Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3610
• Resistance levels: 1.3875, 1.3997

The main scenario for GBP/USD is buying. The ADX has changed direction abruptly and now shows significant bullish pressure. The price was able to break through the SMA 100 moving average, and the MACD entered the positive area, which indicated at least a stop of the fall.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3680, the pound may resume its decline.

• – UK Retail Sales (m/m) (Feb) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 108.73
• Prev Close: 109.16
• % chg. over the last day: -0,40%

In the dollar-yen pair, volatility increased on the back of a rebound in the stock market, but the pair could not get out of its range. After the publication of positive data on US GDP, the rise in share prices supported the pair and the dollar. In this light, medium-term growth expectations have increased.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is buying. The ADX on the hourly timeframe shows increased bullish pressure, while convergence has formed on the MACD. Considering that the moving averages turned up, the probability of a breakdown of the resistance level at 109.34 increased.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may fall to 107.08.

• – The US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2576
• Prev Close: 1.2604
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22%

The pair resumed its growth amid renewed fall in oil prices. The rise in the dollar index is an additional bullish driver for the pair. Since the news about the blocked Suez Canal only managed to raise oil quotes in the short term, the pair’s outlook in the medium term became positive.

• Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2446
• Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2745

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2629 and 1.2530. The ADX showed a substantial increase in bearish pressure in the Asian session. But at the same time, the MACD is near zero, and the price is between the moving averages. Mixed signals indicate a short-term flat.

Alternative scenario: If the price consolidates below 1.2530, the pair may resume its southern movement. A breakout of 1.2629 will indicate a continuation of corrective growth.