Oil prices surged following new sanctions against top Russian oil companies. The Mexican peso remains in demand

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.71% by the end of Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.53%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.93%. Investors evaluated mixed corporate earnings reports and new trade risks following reports that the White House is considering restricting the export of American software to China.

Among corporate results: Netflix (NFLX) lost 10% after publishing results that were pressured by a tax dispute in Brazil. Tesla (TSLA) fell by 1.4% ahead of its earnings report following reports that some new models might suddenly lose battery charge.

The Mexican peso (MXN) continues to be in demand among investors, despite a slowdown in economic activity. Even after the latest key rate cut, the country continues to offer one of the highest real yields among emerging markets, which supports the carry trade and stimulates the inflow of foreign portfolio investments.

European stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) dropped by 0.74%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed lower by 0.63%, the Spanish IBEX35 Index (ES35) rose by 0.09%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.93%. The EU is preparing to approve the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, while the US is also preparing to strengthen sanctions due to Russia’s unwillingness to enter into peace negotiations.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 2% on Wednesday and gained another 3% on Thursday following reports of new US sanctions against Russian oil companies. Washington imposed a ban on cooperation with Rosneft and Lukoil, increasing pressure on Moscow for refusing to participate in peace negotiations on Ukraine. These companies account for about half of Russia’s oil exports, and energy export revenues form about a quarter of Russia’s federal budget.

Asian markets declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.94%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.70%.

Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% after its October 2025 meeting, following three consecutive cuts. The decision reflects the central bank’s confidence that inflation in 2025-2026 will remain within the target range of 1.5-3%, supported by a stable Rupiah exchange rate. According to the latest data, Indonesia’s GDP grew to 5.12% y/y in Q2, the fastest pace in two years, while annual inflation accelerated to 2.65% in September, the highest since May 2024.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,699.40 −35.95 (−0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,590.41 −334.33 (−0.71%)

DAX (DE40) 24,151.13 −178.90 (−0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,515.00 +88.01 (+0.93%)

USD Index 98.90 −0.03 (−0.03%)

News feed for: 2025.10.23

  • Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • Mexico Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3), (Tentative);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The British Pound Extends Its Losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The pound remains on the back foot against the US dollar, pressured by growing market conviction that the Bank of England (BoE) will sustain its accommodative monetary policy stance for longer than the US Federal Reserve. The latest UK inflation figures showed a noticeable cooling in price pressures, effectively extinguishing expectations of further interest rate hikes from the British central bank.

Conversely, Federal Reserve officials continue to strike a hawkish tone in their public remarks, signalling that US interest rates are likely to remain at elevated levels for an extended period. This policy divergence is bolstering the US dollar’s appeal, strengthening its position as a high-yielding, safe-haven asset.

Domestic headwinds are also weighing heavily on sterling. A recent contraction in business activity across both the services and manufacturing sectors (with PMI readings falling below the 50.0 threshold) points to a potential recession in the fourth quarter. Faced with a slowing economy, weakening domestic demand, and persistent cost pressures, the BoE is expected to pause its tightening cycle, leaving the currency vulnerable to further selling.

Compounding these factors, a strong intermarket backdrop for the dollar – characterised by rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening DXY index – is providing both technical and fundamental support for the GBP/USD downtrend.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has been consolidating around 1.3340. The primary scenario suggests a downward breakout from this range, initiating a third wave of decline towards 1.3213. It is important to note that this is only an intermediate target; the broader bearish wave structure carries a primary objective near the 1.2963 area. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing firmly downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the market forming the first leg of a broader third wave downward. The immediate downside target is 1.3276. Upon reaching this level, a short-term corrective rebound to at least 1.3330 is possible. Following such a correction, a resumption of the decline towards 1.3240 and 1.3213 is expected, which would likely complete the current wave structure. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view; its signal line is below 50 and is trending towards the oversold territory (20), reinforcing the probability of continued downward movement.

Conclusion

The confluence of a dovish BoE policy shift, resilient US hawkishness, and deteriorating UK economic data creates a powerfully bearish environment for Sterling. Technically, the path of least resistance is firmly to the downside, with key targets established at 1.3213 and ultimately 1.2963.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

What the US$55 billion Electronic Arts takeover means for video game workers and the industry

By Johanna Weststar, Western University; Louis-Etienne Dubois, Toronto Metropolitan University, and Sean Gouglas, University of Alberta 

Electronic Arts (EA) is one of the world’s largest gaming companies. It has agreed to be acquired for US$55 billion in the second largest buyout in the industry’s history.

Under the terms, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund (a state-owned investment fund), along with private equity firms Silver Lake and Affinity Partners, will pay EA shareholders US$210 per share.

EA is known for making popular gaming titles such as such as Madden NFL, The Sims and Mass Effect. The deal, US$20 billion of which is debt-financed, will take the company private.

The acquisition reinforces consolidation trends across the creative sector, mirroring similar deals in music, film and television. Creative and cultural industries have a “tendency for bigness,” and this is certainly a big deal.

It marks a continuation of large game companies being consumed by even larger players, such as Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision/Blizzard in 2023.

Bad news for workers

There is growing consensus that this acquisition is likely to be bad news for game workers, who have already seen tens of thousands of layoffs in recent years.

This leveraged buyout will result in restructuring at EA-owned studios. It adds massive debt that will need servicing. That will likely mean cancelled titles, closed studios and lost jobs.

In their book Private Equity at Work: When Wall Street Manages Main Street, researchers Eileen Appelbaum and Rosemary Batt point to the “moral hazard” created when equity partners saddle portfolio companies with debt but carry little direct financial risk themselves.

The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) is looking to increase its holdings in lucrative sectors of the game industry as part of its diversification strategy. However, private equity firms subscribe to a “buy to sell” model, focusing on making significant returns in the short term.

Appelbaum notes that restructuring opportunities are more limited when larger, successful companies — like EA — are acquired. In such cases, she says, “financial engineering is more common,” often resulting in “layoffs or downsizing to increase cash flow and service debt.”

Financial engineering combines techniques from applied mathematics, computer science and economic theory to create new and complex financial tools. The failed risk management of these tools has been implicated in financial scandals and market crashes.

Financialization and the fissured workplace

The financialization of the game industry is a problem. Financialization refers to a set of changes in corporate ownership and governance — including the deregulation of financial markets — that have increased the influence of financial companies and investors.

It has produced economies where a considerable share of profits comes from financial transactions rather than the production and provision of goods and services.

It creates what American management professor David Weil calls a “fissured workplace” where ownership models are multi-layered and complex.

It gives financial players an influential seat at the corporate decision-making table and directs managerial attention toward investment returns while transferring the risks of failure to the portfolio company.

As a result, game titles, jobs and studios can be easily shed when financial companies restructure to increase dividends, leaving workers with little access to these financial players as accountable employers.

Chasing incentives and cutting costs

The Saudi PIF has stated a goal of creating 1.8 million “direct and indirect jobs” to stimulate the Saudi economy. But capital is mobile, and game companies will likely follow jurisdictions that have lower wages, fewer labour protections and significant tax incentives.

Some Canadian governments are working to keep studios and creative jobs closer to home. British Columbia recently increased its interactive media tax credit to 25 per cent.

The move was welcomed by the chief operations officer of EA Vancouver, who said “B.C.’s continued commitment to the interactive digital media sector…through enhancements to the … tax credit … reflects the province’s recognition of the industry’s value and enables companies like ours to continue contributing to B.C.’s creative and innovative economy.”

This may buffer Vancouver’s flagship EA Sports studio, but those making less lucrative games or in regions without financial subsidies will be more at risk of closure, relocation or sale. Alberta-based Bioware — developer of games including Dragon Age and Mass Effect — could be at risk.

Other ways of aggressively cutting costs might come in the form of increased AI use. EA was called out in 2023 for saying AI regulation could negatively impact its business. Yet creative stagnation and cutting corners through AI will negatively impact the number of jobs, the quality of jobs and the quality of games. That could be a larger threat to EA’s business and reinforce a negative direction for the industry.

Game players have low tolerance for quality shifts and predatory monetization strategies. Research shows that gamers see acquisitions negatively: development takes longer, innovation is curtailed and creativity is stymied.

Consolidation among industry giants may cause players to lose faith in EA’s product — and games in general, given the many other entertainment options that are available.

Creative control and worker power at risk

Some have raised concerns that the acquisition could affect EA’s creative direction and editorial decisions, potentially leading to increased content restrictions.

While it’s still unclear how the deal will influence EA’s output, experiences in other industries might be a sign of things to come. For instance, comedians reportedly censored themselves to perform in Saudi Arabia.

The acquisition may also have a chilling effect on the workers’ unionization movement. Currently, no EA studios in Canada are unionized. Outsourced quality assurance workers at the EA-owned BioWare Studio in Edmonton successfully certified a union in 2022, but were subsequently laid off. Fears of outsourcing, layoffs and restructuring could discourage future organizing efforts.

On the other hand, the knowledge that large financial players are making massive profits could galvanize workers, especially considering that before the buyout, EA CEO Andrew Wilson was paid about 264 times the salary of the median EA employee.

The deal certainly does nothing to bring stability to an already volatile industry. Regardless of any cash injection, EA remains very exposed.The Conversation

About the Authors: 

Johanna Weststar, Associate Professor of Labour and Employment Relations, DAN Department of Management & Organizational Studies, Western University; Louis-Etienne Dubois, Associate Professor, School of Creative Industries, The Creative School, Toronto Metropolitan University, and Sean Gouglas, Professor, Digital Humanities, University of Alberta

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

The new Prime Minister of Japan supports a loose monetary policy. Canada sees rising inflation

By JustMarkets 

The US stock indices closed higher for the third consecutive session. By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) had grown by 0.47%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.01%. The technological Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.16%. A strong start to the corporate earnings season outweighed the lingering uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations. Overall, more than 75% of companies that have already reported quarterly results exceeded analysts’ prognoses, which supported the overall rally on Wall Street.

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.4% year-over-year in September, compared to an outlook of 2.3%, which was the highest reading since February. The median core inflation remained near a one-year high at 3.1%, surpassing the consensus of 3%, which narrows the space for policy easing by the Bank of Canada. On the trade front, the situation was supported by reports that a US-Canada trade agreement, covering steel, aluminum, and energy, might be ready for approval by leaders at the upcoming APEC summit.

European stock markets mostly rose on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) grew by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.64%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) fell by 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.25%.

WTI oil prices rose to $57.4 per barrel on Tuesday. However, the supply surplus has not disappeared. According to Vortexa, the volume of crude oil and condensate in tankers worldwide reached a record 1.24 billion barrels. The IEA warned that the global oil market could face a record surplus next year as OPEC+ and other producers increase output volumes even amid slowing demand growth.

Asian markets grew confidently yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.27%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) grew by 1.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.70%.

Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi instructed her cabinet to prepare a package of economic stimulus measures to ease the burden of household expenses. Against this backdrop, the government is increasing fiscal stimulus to support the economy, including energy subsidies, payments to low-income families, and tax breaks for businesses affected by tariffs. This also suggests that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not tighten its monetary policy in the near future.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.5% in September 2025 from 1.3% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since February and slightly exceeding market estimates of 1.4%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of fresh food and regulated prices, rose to 2.1% year-over-year, the highest reading since October 2023. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in the previous five months, indicating the fastest growth in seven months.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,735.35 +0.22 (+0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,924.74 +218.16 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 24,330.03 +71.23 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,426.99 +23.42 (+0.25%)

USD Index 98.97 +0.38 (+0.39%)

News feed for: 2025.10.22

  • Japan Trade Balance (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:25 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Gold Undergoes Correction Amid Divergent Forces

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices face continued pressure from a resilient US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive monetary policy stance. These headwinds have triggered a technical correction in the precious metal.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and instability in the Middle East continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets, providing a buffer against more substantial price declines.

In the coming sessions, investor attention will focus on key inflation data and scheduled speeches from Fed officials, which are likely to provide fresh direction for the precious metal.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD broke below the 4,175 USD support level, reaching the initial corrective target at 4,004 USD. The market is currently forming a retracement towards 4,175 USD, testing this former support level from below. Following the completion of this pullback, another leg down is anticipated within the broader correction, with a subsequent target at 3,970 USD. The MACD indicator confirms this bearish near-term outlook: its signal line is pointing downward while the histogram remains entrenched in negative territory, indicating continued selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the instrument completed a downward wave to 4,004 USD before establishing a growth structure. The price is currently consolidating around 4,107 USD. An upward breakout from this range would likely propel prices toward 4,175 USD, retesting the previously breached support level. The Stochastic oscillator supports this short-term bullish scenario, with its signal line positioned above 50 and advancing toward 80, reflecting building upward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains caught between monetary headwinds and geopolitical support. While the broader correction appears intact, the current bounce from 4,004 USD suggests potential for further near-term recovery toward 4,175 USD. However, this upward move is likely to present selling opportunities for a resumption of the downtrend towards 3,970 USD. Traders should monitor incoming US data and Fed commentary for catalysts that could determine whether this correction deepens or concludes.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Why higher tariffs on Canadian lumber may not be enough to stimulate long-term investments in US forestry

By Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee and Adam Taylor, University of Tennessee 

Lumber, especially softwood lumber like pine and spruce, is critical to U.S. home construction. Its availability and price directly affect housing costs and broader economic activity in the building sector. The U.S. imports about 40% of the softwood lumber the nation uses each year, more than 80% of that from Canada.

President Donald Trump says that the U.S. has the capacity to meet 95% of softwood lumber demand and directed federal officials to update policies and regulatory guidelines to expand domestic timber harvesting and curb the arrival of foreign lumber.

On Sept. 29, 2025, he announced new tariffs on imported timber and wood products, including an additional 10% tariff on Canadian lumber. Those were added to 35% tariffs imposed on Canadian lumber in August. It was the latest phase in a long-standing dispute over the supply of lumber to builders in the U.S., which dates back to the 1980s, when U.S. producers began arguing that Canadian companies were benefiting from unfair subsidies from their government. Starting on Oct. 15, Canadian softwood lumber imports could face tariffs exceeding 45%.

As researchers studying the forestry sector and international trade, we recognize that the U.S. has ample forest resources. But replacing imports with domestic lumber isn’t as simple as it sounds.

There are differences in tree species and quality, and U.S. lumber often comes at a higher cost, even with tariffs on imports. Challenges like limited labor and manufacturing capacity require long-term investments, which temporary tariffs and uncertain trade policies often fail to encourage. In addition, the amount of lumber imported tends to mirror the boom-and-bust cycles of housing construction, a dynamic that tariffs alone are unlikely to change.

Trump’s moves

To boost U.S. logging, in March, Trump issued an executive order telling the departments of Interior and Agriculture to ease what he called “heavy-handed” regulations on timber harvesting. The executive order and a follow-up memo from Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins do not spell out specifics, but officials say more details are in the works that will simplify the timber harvesting process, with the goal of boosting domestic timber production by 25%.

That same month, Trump ordered the Commerce Department to assess how imports of timber, lumber and related wood products affect U.S. national security.

While that assessment was underway, in July, the Commerce Department published findings from a trade review of 2023 Canadian lumber imports. That inquiry alleged that Canadian companies were selling lumber to the U.S. at unfairly low prices, potentially leaving U.S. producers with lower sales or depressed prices. That finding was cited as the basis for the 35% August tariff announcement.

In its national security investigation initiated in March, the Commerce Department concluded that an overreliance on imported wood products means “the United States may be unable to meet demands for wood products that are crucial to the national defense and critical infrastructure.” The September tariff announcement is based on those findings.

Canadian lumber in the US market

In 1991, the U.S. imported 11.5 billion board feet (27 million cubic meters) of Canadian lumber. Those imports rose to a high of 22 billion board feet (52 million cubic meters) by 2005.

But as housing construction declined – especially during the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009 – imports dropped sharply, to less than 8.4 billion board feet (20 million cubic meters) in 2009. The current volume has not recovered to prerecession levels, rising only to 12 billion board feet (28 million cubic meters) in 2024.

The value of Canadian lumber has also fluctuated. Historically, prices for Canadian lumber have averaged about US$330 per thousand board feet ($140 per cubic meter). During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, import prices soared to almost $800 per thousand board feet ($340 per cubic meter). But since peaking in 2021 and 2022, prices have dropped significantly to $436 per thousand board feet ($185 per cubic meter) by 2024.

In total, in 2024, the U.S. imported more than $11 billion in forest and wood products from Canada. Softwood lumber accounted for almost half of that.

Lumber and housing

As personal income rises and populations grow, people seek to build new homes. As new home construction – called “housing starts” in economic data – increases, so does demand for softwood lumber to build those homes. And when housing starts slow, so does lumber demand.

For instance, housing starts fell during the Great Recession. They declined from a January 2006 peak of 2.3 million to less than 500,000 in January 2009 – a decrease of nearly 80%. In that same period, imports of Canadian lumber fell by more than 60%. Domestic softwood lumber production fell by more than 40%.

Both domestic and imported lumber prices can directly influence the overall cost of building homes, which in turn affects housing affordability. That said, lumber used for framing usually accounts for less than 10% of the total cost to build a new home. The effects of tariffs on new home construction may be significantly less than other factors, such as rising labor costs.

There are different kinds of wood commonly used in building lumber.

A matter of choice

The U.S. has a lot of potential lumber available. Especially in the South, the inventory of harvestable lumber has grown significantly over many years.

However, the types of wood available in the U.S. are not always the same as what’s available from Canadian imports. For framing, contractors may prefer spruce, northern pines and fir, naturally abundant in Canada, because they are lighter and less likely to warp than southern yellow pine, which is abundant in the southern U.S. Southern yellow pine is more commonly used to make utility poles and preservative-treated lumber for outdoor construction projects, such as decks.

Lumber from Idaho, eastern Oregon and eastern Washington, however, does share characteristics with Canadian species and could take the place of at least some Canadian lumber.

As the Trump administration seeks to boost domestic lumber, buyers will be looking not only at where their lumber came from, but what it costs and what type of lumber is best for what they need to accomplish.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Andrew Muhammad, Professor of Agriculture and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee and Adam Taylor, Professor of Natural Resources, University of Tennessee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Strong corporate reports support stock indices. EU countries supported a plan to phase out imports of Russian oil and gas

By JustMarkets 

By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) had grown by 1.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 1.07%. The technological Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher by 1.30%. On Monday, US stock indices closed with notable gains amid optimism surrounding upcoming corporate reports and a new wave of support for the banking sector, while investors continued to assess the prospects for easing trade restrictions between the US and China. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached new historical highs.

Wells Fargo and Citigroup jumped by 3.3% and 2.3% respectively, and other major banks also strengthened noticeably as investors reassessed the credit stress risks that had been pressuring the sector since the beginning of the month. Apple’s stock rose by 4.4%, setting a new historical high amid signals of high iPhone 17 sales in the US and China.

European stock markets went mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) grew by 1.80%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) rose by 1.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.52%. European stocks in the financial and defense sectors showed strong growth, but BNP Paribas dropped sharply after a US court ruling. BNP Paribas plummeted by 7.7% after a US court ordered the bank to pay $20.75 million in connection with alleged ties to war crimes in Sudan.

On Monday, EU energy ministers supported a plan to phase out imports of Russian oil and gas by January 2028. The bill must still be negotiated with the European Parliament before final adoption. The goal of the initiative is to reduce Russia’s energy revenues, which help finance its war against Ukraine. Russia currently supplies about 12% of the EU’s gas, whereas the share was 45% before the 2022 invasion. Among the countries that still import Russian gas are Hungary, France, and Belgium.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices continued to fall for the second consecutive session. Market pressure was intensified by fears of a global supply surplus and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming trade negotiations between the US and China. The volume of oil in marine transit rose to a record 1.24 billion barrels, indicating a worsening supply-demand imbalance and supporting bearish sentiment.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 3.37%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 2.42%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.41%. Positive sentiment was supported by a strong rally in US futures after President Donald Trump stated that he might lower tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing took reciprocal steps, including resuming purchases of US soybeans. Optimism was reinforced by expectations of additional stimulus from Chinese authorities following the release of Q3 GDP data, which showed growth of 4.8%  the lowest in a year. This week, China’s political leadership is holding meetings to prepare a new Five-Year Plan ahead of the December Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference meetings. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.9%. Looking ahead, authorities expect that certain sectors will continue to face labor market difficulties due to structural changes in the economy and external risks.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar broke its two-day rally, despite optimism fueled by a breakthrough in the trade agreement between the US and Australia. The two countries recently signed a critical minerals partnership.

The New Zealand dollar fell on Tuesday, losing its gains from the previous session amid expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Although third-quarter inflation data showed price growth reaching a yearly maximum of 3%, which is at the upper limit of the RBNZ’s target range, the bank’s preferred inflation indicator remained at its lowest level since the beginning of 2021, and other core indicators also point to restrained price pressure. Futures swaps fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,735.13 +71.12 (+1.07%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,706.58 +515.97 (+1.12%)

DAX (DE40) 24,258.80 +427.81 (+1.80%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,403.57 +49.00 (+0.52%)

USD Index 98.59 +0.16 (+0.16%)

News feed for: 2025.10.21

  • New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD Under Downward Pressure

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The euro is facing sustained selling pressure, primarily driven by a robust US dollar. The greenback is being bolstered by rising Treasury yields and fading market expectations for an early start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

Further weighing on the single currency are disappointing macroeconomic releases from Germany, coupled with ongoing uncertainty over US–EU trade disputes, which have been reignited by new initiatives from the Trump administration.

Additionally, investors are beginning to price in fiscal risks within the eurozone, fuelled by budgetary disagreements involving Italy and France. Collectively, these factors create an unfavourable backdrop for the euro in the near term.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has been forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.1656 level. The pair is currently trading below this pivot, with initial bearish targets at 1.1606 and 1.1568. A retest of the range’s upper boundary towards 1.1733 remains a possibility. However, a decisive break below the current consolidation would open the potential for a deeper decline towards 1.1488, with a subsequent extension to 1.1400. This bearish technical picture is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line, while above zero, is pointing decisively downwards, indicating that bearish momentum is prevailing.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair breaking downwards from a tight consolidation around 1.1655. This move signals the likely completion of a corrective phase and the start of a fresh leg lower. The initial downside target is at least 1.1584. This view is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and is holding near the 20 level, reflecting strong near-term bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental and technical outlook for EUR/USD both point to further downside. While a technical correction is always possible, the path of least resistance appears lower, with key support levels at 1.1584 and 1.1488 in focus.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The US stocks rise on easing trade tensions. Bitcoin falls amid new wave of risk in global markets

By JustMarkets 

US indices finished Friday’s trading session higher, with investors reacting positively to statements from President Donald Trump that eased concerns about a further escalation of the US-China trade conflict. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.52% (weekly gain of +1.08%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.53% (weekly gain of +0.63%). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up 0.65% (weekly gain of +0.78%). Trump stated that his proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods would be a temporary measure, while simultaneously accusing Beijing of increasing trade tensions. He also confirmed that a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is “most likely to happen at the end of the month,” which market participants viewed as a potential step toward de-escalation. Additional support was provided by the recovery in regional bank stocks after a sharp drop the day before.

On Friday, Bitcoin fell to around $106,000, reaching its lowest level since early July, amid a new wave of risk aversion across global markets. Investor sentiment worsened following new signs of credit stress among US regional banks, which reignited fears of a possible banking crisis similar to the events of 2023 when the Federal Reserve intervened to stabilize the financial system. The market is also under pressure from escalating US-China trade tensions, a protracted US government shutdown, and rising budget concerns, all of which reduce risk appetite among traders.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.82% (weekly loss of -2.22%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18% (weekly gain of +2.70%), Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) dropped by 0.29% (weekly gain of +0.43%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.86% (weekly loss of -0.77%). In September 2025, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone was 2.2%, slightly above the 2.0% recorded in the previous three months and just above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. Services inflation continued to rise, climbing from 3.1% in August to 3.2%. The rise in the core measure indicates persistent domestic inflationary pressure, which will compel the ECB to maintain rates for the next few months. On Friday, S&P Global Ratings unexpectedly downgraded France’s credit rating by one notch, from AA- to A+, and assigned a negative outlook, citing increased political uncertainty.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.1% on Friday. Despite the small daily gain, this marked the third consecutive week of decline, resulting in a nearly 3% weekly drop amid oversupply concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Fears of rising supply intensified after the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected an increase in the global oil surplus by 2026, and US data showed a sharp rise in inventories over the past week. US production hit a record 13.636 million barrels per day, and demand for storage in key logistics hubs increased significantly. This indicates that market participants expect the supply surplus to persist and potentially pressure prices in the near term.

Silver (XAG/USD) retreated from record highs amid improved investor sentiment. On Friday, silver prices fell by more than 4%. The pressure on quotes came from improved risk appetite after President Donald Trump attempted to mitigate concerns about the US-China trade confrontation. Despite the correction, silver ended the week up by more than 3%, marking its ninth consecutive positive week. The metal had previously been supported by concerns over the stability of the US financial system, triggered by credit fraud scandals in regional banks, which spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, a liquidity crisis in the London silver market caused a deficit in physical supplies, amplifying global demand and forcing some investment funds to temporarily halt the inflow of funds into their silver ETFs.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose by nearly 3%, surpassing the $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) level. However, despite the daily recovery, the price declined for the second consecutive week. Pressure on quotes remains due to expectations of mild weather and high gas inventories, which offset the effect of reduced production and near-record LNG export levels. Higher production in previous months allowed companies to build up reserves, which now exceed the five-year average by approximately 4%.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) recorded a positive result of 0.85%.

A key vote to elect a new Prime Minister is scheduled in the Japanese parliament on Tuesday. Takaichi, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is negotiating with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) after breaking a more than two-decade partnership with the Komeito party in early October. On Friday, LDP leadership stated that negotiations for a potential coalition are progressing with substantial headway, increasing the chances of forming a stable government. Takaichi previously opposed raising interest rates by the Bank of Japan, and he is expected to maintain this stance as the new Prime Minister, which could influence the country’s monetary policy and negatively impact the dynamics of the yen.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,664.01 +34.94 (+0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,190.61 +238.37 (+0.52%)

DAX (DE40) 23,830.99 −441.20 (−1.82%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,354.57 −81.52 (−0.86%)

USD Index 98.54 +0.21 (+0.21%)

News feed for: 2025.10.20

  • New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);
  • China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
  • China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Retail Sales (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • Canada BOC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Communist Party Fourth Plenum (All Day).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Yen Extends its Correction

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The yen is continuing its corrective phase, with the US dollar facing conflicting pressures. Political uncertainty in the US—stemming from the threat of a federal government shutdown—coupled with the escalation of Trump’s trade wars, is creating a mixed environment for the greenback.

On one hand, the dollar continues to find support from high US bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on inflation risks, which is limiting the scale of its decline.

On the other hand, a trifecta of factors is bolstering the yen’s appeal as a safe-haven asset: signs of weakening business activity, growing US budget deficits, and heightened geopolitical tensions in Asia, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea.

An additional layer of complexity comes from the energy market. Instability and rising oil prices threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, which could force investors to reassess their interest rate expectations.

Collectively, these elements create a volatile fundamental backdrop. Short-term movements in USD/JPY are likely to be dictated by the delicate balance between the dollar’s yield appeal and rising demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair formed a consolidation range around 151.10. Following a downward breakout, the pair successfully reached its initial target at 149.38. The market has since completed a technical retest of the 151.10 level from below. The immediate scenario favours a further correction towards 149.00. Following this decline, we anticipate the start of a new growth wave, with initial targets at 151.50 and a longer-term prospect of resuming the broader uptrend towards 154.10. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line remains below zero and is pointing downward, reflecting sustained bearish momentum with potential for a subsequent reversal.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward leg to 151.10, forming a structure that suggests the correction phase has concluded. We now expect the development of a fifth decline wave towards 149.00. After this move lower, we will assess the potential for a new upward movement targeting 151.10. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line is currently below 50 and trending downwards towards the 20 zone, indicating that short-term downward potential remains intact.

Conclusion

The yen’s correction is set to continue in the near term, driven by a complex mix of fundamental headwinds for the dollar and safe-haven demand. Technically, the path of least resistance appears to be a further dip towards 149.00, after which the broader bullish trend is expected to reassert itself, targeting levels above 151.50.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.