InvestMacro

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Bloomberg Commodity Index & WTI Crude Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Bloomberg Commodity Index & WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7,989 contracts) with Gasoline (2,569 contracts) and WTI Crude (776 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-20,042 contracts), Brent Oil (-6,035 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-4,359 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy Market Price Performance led by Heating Oil

The energy markets saw Heating Oil lead the price performance over the last five days with a gain by 3.7%. Brent Crude Oil was up by 1.79%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 1.53% on the week. WTI Crude Oil was also higher by 1.22%, and Gasoline rose by approximately 0.50%.

The only energy market with a down week was Natural Gas, which fell by -0.62%. Natural Gas has been on a strong downtrend and has fallen by 33% in the past 30 days, and by 22% over the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Gasoline

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bloomberg Index (80.5 percent) and Gasoline (67.2 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) and WTI Crude (5.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (5.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (5.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.4 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (14.9 percent)
Gasoline (67.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (64.4 percent)
Heating Oil (62.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (68.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (80.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (61.5 percent) and WTI Crude (2.3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-43.8 percent), Gasoline (-32.8 percent) and Brent Oil (-13.6 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-13.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-43.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-20.1 percent)
Gasoline (-32.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-23.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-11.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-0.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (61.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	42.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	45.6	2.9
– Net Position:	58,128	-65,450	7,322
– Gross Longs:	286,136	855,313	65,125
– Gross Shorts:	228,008	920,763	57,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	96.8	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-1.3	-6.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	34.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	21.2	2.2
– Net Position:	-33,887	30,758	3,129
– Gross Longs:	52,273	79,946	8,124
– Gross Shorts:	86,160	49,188	4,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	66.3	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	10.8	29.4

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -185,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	36.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	26.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-185,601	172,844	12,757
– Gross Longs:	270,263	602,296	54,985
– Gross Shorts:	455,864	429,452	42,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.8	42.9	-1.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 72,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	48.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	66.0	4.3
– Net Position:	72,527	-79,062	6,535
– Gross Longs:	109,165	218,251	26,081
– Gross Shorts:	36,638	297,313	19,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	32.8	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.8	32.8	-17.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	47.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	55.0	8.9
– Net Position:	14,511	-27,335	12,824
– Gross Longs:	62,981	174,862	45,706
– Gross Shorts:	48,470	202,197	32,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	40.5	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	23.6	-43.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	69.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	67.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-5,798	4,845	953
– Gross Longs:	51,952	131,526	974
– Gross Shorts:	57,750	126,681	21
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	46.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	16.3	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	61.5	-63.4	20.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

18 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (26,028 contracts) with Soybean Meal (13,215 contracts), Live Cattle (5,213 contracts), Coffee (2,216 contracts), Wheat (2,066 contracts), Cotton (1,489 contracts) and Lean Hogs (90 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-93,535 contracts), Soybeans (-45,823 contracts), Cocoa (-12,726 contracts) and with Sugar (-11,613 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Day Price Performance led by Soybean Oil

Soft commodity prices this week saw Soybean Oil lead the past five days’ performance with a gain of 5.33%. Soybean Oil has risen by almost 3% over the past 90 days.

Lean Hogs came in second with a 1.13% gain this week, followed by Cotton, which rose by 0.45%. Sugar (0.10%) and Wheat (0.09%) were marginally higher on the week while Live Cattle was virtually unchanged.

Soybeans fell by just over half a percent (-0.68%), followed by Coffee (-0.81%), which was lower by just under -1%. Cocoa fell by -2.6%, while Corn dropped by over -4%, and Soybean Meal was down by about -5%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybeans

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (63 percent), Soybeans (57 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) and Sugar (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (23 percent) and the Wheat (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.4 percent)
Sugar (7.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.7 percent)
Coffee (56.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.8 percent)
Soybeans (56.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (28.2 percent)
Live Cattle (62.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (55.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.6 percent)
Cotton (22.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (13.0 percent)
Wheat (28.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (7 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-41 percent), Soybean Oil (-22 percent) and Soybean Meal (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.2 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.4 percent)
Coffee (-2.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.5 percent)
Soybeans (-41.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-21.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-27.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-20.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-27.8 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.2 percent)
Cotton (6.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.6 percent)
Cocoa (-3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.2 percent)
Wheat (-52.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -93,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	48.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	45.1	9.6
– Net Position:	-33,423	48,923	-15,500
– Gross Longs:	328,395	776,624	140,104
– Gross Shorts:	361,818	727,701	155,604
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	64.6	88.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.3	14.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -165,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	56.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	38.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-165,711	176,273	-10,562
– Gross Longs:	143,494	545,372	69,916
– Gross Shorts:	309,205	369,099	80,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	94.1	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-2.2	-9.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	40.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	60.7	3.8
– Net Position:	32,752	-34,127	1,375
– Gross Longs:	57,888	69,400	7,843
– Gross Shorts:	25,136	103,527	6,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	45.1	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	2.9	-7.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	51.5	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	56.3	8.7
– Net Position:	58,947	-39,485	-19,462
– Gross Longs:	176,440	419,099	51,203
– Gross Shorts:	117,493	458,584	70,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	43.6	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.3	42.4	2.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 26,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	49.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	46.3	4.1
– Net Position:	-25,135	22,739	2,396
– Gross Longs:	119,861	320,241	28,550
– Gross Shorts:	144,996	297,502	26,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	71.9	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	21.5	-11.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	52.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	55.2	5.9
– Net Position:	757	-13,489	12,732
– Gross Longs:	111,971	269,497	42,916
– Gross Shorts:	111,214	282,986	30,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	70.1	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	20.7	-3.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	33.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	55.9	12.2
– Net Position:	85,939	-73,983	-11,956
– Gross Longs:	144,736	107,437	27,580
– Gross Shorts:	58,797	181,420	39,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	32.1	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-14.0	-2.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 90 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	35.7	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	47.2	8.9
– Net Position:	41,478	-35,177	-6,301
– Gross Longs:	117,956	108,712	20,863
– Gross Shorts:	76,478	143,889	27,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	47.0	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.4	6.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	45.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	38.2	3.7
– Net Position:	-27,431	24,316	3,115
– Gross Longs:	88,834	149,665	15,181
– Gross Shorts:	116,265	125,349	12,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	75.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-8.6	29.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	47.0	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	38.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-9,496	12,095	-2,599
– Gross Longs:	27,010	65,030	9,528
– Gross Shorts:	36,506	52,935	12,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	-0.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	36.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	20.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-86,025	84,878	1,147
– Gross Longs:	128,167	188,716	30,432
– Gross Shorts:	214,192	103,838	29,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	72.6	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.9	53.3	35.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Jan

USD/JPY Slips as the Yen Reacts to a Wave of Market News

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 158.16 on Friday as the Japanese yen continued its recovery from earlier this week. Market participants are increasingly focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, hoping for clearer signals regarding the future pace of interest rate hikes.

The regulator is widely expected to keep its policy parameters unchanged at the next meeting. However, investors are already pricing in the next rate hike as early as June. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the central bank remains ready to tighten policy if economic momentum and inflation dynamics continue to align with official forecasts.

Additional support for the yen came from renewed concerns over possible currency intervention as USD/JPY approached the psychologically important 160 level. Japanese authorities have repeatedly warned against sharp, unilateral exchange rate movements, increasing market sensitivity in this zone.

At the same time, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the yen. Markets are factoring in the possibility of early parliamentary elections. According to media reports, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may announce the dissolution of the lower house in an effort to push forward a more active fiscal policy. Further details are expected to be presented to representatives of the ruling coalition on 19 January.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to the 157.90 area. For today, it is relevant to consider the potential formation of the initial phase of a renewed upward structure, targeting 159.59, with the prospect of a further move towards 160.00.

This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above the zero level and is directed sharply upward, indicating that bullish momentum remains despite the recent correction.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 158.77. The range has currently expanded downward to 157.97.

A breakout below this level would likely trigger a decline towards 156.60
A breakout to the upside would open the way for a bullish wave towards 159.59

This outlook is supported by the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal line is positioned above the 50 level and is moving steadily upward towards 80, indicating growing bullish pressure.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains at a critical juncture, balancing yen support from intervention risks and expectations of BoJ tightening against ongoing pressure from political uncertainty. In the short term, consolidation is likely to persist, but a breakout from the current range will define the next directional move. As long as the pair holds above key support levels, the broader bullish trend towards the 160 area remains technically valid, while a downside breakout would shift focus towards deeper corrective targets.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Jan

Bank of New York Mellon Corporation is latest addition to our Stock Watchlist

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) stock has been added to our data-driven Watchlist today.

📈 BK – The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
🏭 Sector: Financial Services
📊 Market Cap: Large Cap
⚖️ Beta: 1.11 (Moderate Risk)
📈 52W Performance: +63.0%
📊 Quant Score: 55/100 (Watchlist)

BK beat both the estimates on earnings-per-share and on revenue in the latest earnings data released. Currently, the BK price chart has shown a strong uptrend and prices are considered overbought on the weekly Relative Strength Indicator (RSI).

Full Disclosure: Do not currently own this stock. Disclaimer: Content is educational purposes and not intended as investment advice.

Charts

16 Jan

Week Ahead: USDJPY timebomb flirts near “danger zone”

By ForexTime

JPY ↓ over 1% versus USD year-to-date
Japan last intervened in July 2024, spending $36.8 billion
US PCE + Japan CPI + BoJ = fresh volatility?
Over past year BoJ triggered moves of ↑ 0.8% & ↓ 0.2%
Technical levels: 162, 160 and 158

Global FX markets could roar back to life if the yen descends deeper into intervention “danger zones”.

USDJPY is trading near an 18-month high around 158.50, a region that forced Japan to intervene back in July 2024.

To be clear, the government jumped into action after USDJPY almost hit 162.00, which is less than 2% away from current prices.

With chatter around intervention getting louder by the day, this could translate to heightened levels of volatility.

Beyond this key theme, the coming week also features scheduled events that could influence USDJPY:

Monday, 19th January

US markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Annual World Economic Forum in Davos
CNY: China GDP Growth Rate (Q4); Industrial Production (Dec); Retail Sales (Dec)
CAD: Canada Inflation Rate (Dec)

Tuesday, 20th January

EUR: Germany PPI (Dec); Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jan); Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Jan)
GBP: UK Unemployment Rate (Nov); Average Earnings
USD: US ADP Employment Weekly Change
WTI: API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Jan 16)
US500: Netflix earnings

Wednesday, 21st January

Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum
GBP: UK Inflation Rate (Dec)
USD: Pending Home Sales (Dec)
JPY: Japan Balance of Trade (Dec); Exports (Dec)

Thursday, 22nd January

AUD: Australia Employment Data (Dec); S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan)
NZD: New Zealand Inflation Rate (Q4 2025)
EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Accounts; Eurozone Consumer confidence (Jan)
USD: US PCE Index (Oct, Nov); Personal Income and Spending (Oct, Nov)
JPY: Japan Inflation Rate (Dec)
WTI: US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Jan 16)

Friday, 23rd January

GBP: UK Retail Sales (Dec); S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan); Gfk Consumer Confidence (Jan)
JPY: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
EUR: Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI (Jan); Eurozone HCOB Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan)
CAD: Retail Sales (Dec)
USD: US S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan)

The lowdown:

The Japanese Yen is weakening due to election-related fiscal fears and political risk, while a stronger dollar is exacerbating the situation.

A weak Yen is bad news for Japan because it boosts import costs, erodes purchasing power, and increases the cost of living.

The country’s finance minister has warned speculators that Japan will act to defend its currency, while BoJ officials are paying more attention to its impact on inflation.

Zooming out, expectations around a potential intervention may rattle FX markets and impact risk-sensitive currencies in addition to equities.

USDJPY set for a pivotal week?

Key events out of either side of the Pacific may rock the USDJPY:

1) US October/November PCE report

The incoming PCE figures are likely to shape interest rate expectations, especially the core PCE which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

On Thursday 22nd of January, both the October and November releases of the PCE reports will be published.

Traders are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a Fed cut by April with the odds jumping to 85% by June 2026.

Signs of still sticky inflation may have Fed cut expectations, pushing the USDJPY higher as the dollar strengthens.
A weaker-than-expected PCE report may pull the USDJPY lower as the USD weakens on rising Fed cut bets.

2) Japan CPI + BoJ rate decision

Japan’s December CPI report published on Thursday may influence BoJ monetary policy expectations beyond January.

Inflation is forecast to have risen 2.2% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in November due to the base effects from the jump in fresh food prices and new fuel subsidies last year.

Regarding the BoJ, it is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75% but any clues offered on future rates may rock the yen.

Traders are currently pricing in a 25% chance of a BoJ hike by March with the odds jumping to 57% by April 2026.

The Yen may rally if the BoJ strikes a hawkish note and signals a rate hike over the coming months. This may drag the USDJPY away from intervention danger zones.
A cautious-sounding BoJ may weaken the yen, pushing the USDJPY deeper into intervention zones.

3) Technical forces

The USDJPY is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

A solid move above 159.00 may encourage an incline toward 159.50 and 160.20.
Weakness below 158.20 could see prices slip toward 157.50 and 156.90.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 78.2% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 156.93 – 160.19 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

16 Jan

Oil tumbles 5%. Tech rally pushes US stocks higher

By JustMarkets

The US stocks rose firmly on Thursday, driven by a sharp improvement in sentiment within the technology sector and a generally positive flow of macroeconomic data. At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.60%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.26%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished higher by 0.26%. The key market driver was the earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which bolstered investor confidence in the long-term AI-related investment cycle. The company reported a 35% increase in fourth-quarter profit and provided a more optimistic revenue prognosis than expected. This triggered a broad rally in semiconductor stocks and related equipment manufacturers, restoring risk appetite across the entire tech sector.

In geopolitics, the tone became less strained following a softening of US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding Iran. However, uncertainty persists due to his statements regarding Greenland.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.39 against the US dollar, remaining in a tight range near early December lows, as a strengthening US dollar and falling oil prices outweighed relatively stable domestic factors. The easing of President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran led to a reduction in the geopolitical premium in oil, putting pressure on commodity prices and weakening CAD support from trade conditions. Domestically, pressure on the currency persists due to a sluggish labor market: the unemployment rate remains around 6.8%, anchoring the Bank of Canada’s neutral stance and limiting the potential for policy tightening to support the currency.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.65 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, thanks to a renewed influx of capital through carry-trade operations, driven by Mexico’s persistently high real interest rates. Banxico slowed its rate-cutting cycle, holding the benchmark rate at 7% and signaling the need for caution amid persistent core inflation. This maintains one of the widest real yield differentials in emerging markets, supporting capital inflows into peso-denominated fixed-income assets.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.26%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.21%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.30%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished up 0.54%. Investors reacted positively to a combination of encouraging macroeconomic data and corporate news while accounting for the geopolitical backdrop. The market was supported by fresh data indicating that the German economy returned to moderate growth in 2025, expanding by 0.2% after two years of decline. Additional momentum came from the technology sector amid renewed AI optimism following TSMC’s record results, which improved sentiment in the high-tech and industrial segments.

WTI crude oil prices collapsed nearly 5% on Thursday to $59 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day drop since October as geopolitical risks surrounding Iran receded. The primary trigger was US President Donald Trump’s statement that he had received assurances from the Iranian side regarding the cessation of protester killings. This dampened expectations of immediate US military intervention and sharply reduced fears of disruptions to Iranian production and strategic supply routes. Additionally, Trump noted his belief that Venezuela should remain in OPEC, which markets interpreted as a signal to maintain the status quo on supply rather than pursue sharp cuts.

Asian markets traded without a unified trend yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.42%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.51%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) shed 0.28%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.47%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to the 0.575 level on Friday and is heading for a weekly gain following a series of positive signals from the real sector. The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in December, accelerating to its highest levels in four years. The market has ramped up expectations for policy tightening later this year: the probability of a rate hike in September is estimated at approximately 57%, with such a move almost fully priced in by October. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) February meeting is still perceived as a non-event, with the rate expected to remain at 2.25%.

The Malaysian economy’s growth, according to preliminary estimates, accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, compared to 5.2% in the previous quarter, marking the fastest pace since Q2 2024. The key driver was a recovery in the industrial sector. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 3.0% following an upwardly revised 5.4% jump in Q3 – the highest since late 2021. For the full year 2025, the economy grew by 4.9%, slowing only slightly from 5.1% the previous year.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,944.49 +17.89 (+0.26%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,442.26 +292.63 (+0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 25,352.39 +66.15 (+0.26%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,238.94 +54.59 (+0.54%)

USD Index 99.38 +0.25% (+0.25%)

News feed for: 2026.01.16

US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Jan

GBP/USD Stable: Sentiment Shifts in Favour of Sterling

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair held around 1.3430 USD on Thursday, with the pound strengthening yesterday following better-than-expected UK economic growth data. These figures may shape market expectations for Bank of England policy in the coming months.

Since the start of January, sterling has made limited headway against the US dollar but has strengthened notably against the euro. Dollar sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Greenland, as well as renewed comments from President Donald Trump questioning the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Investor sentiment toward the pound has turned more constructive at the start of 2026. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), traders reduced bearish bets on the pound at the fastest pace in five months during the first week of January. The net long dollar position against sterling fell sharply to 2.577 billion USD, down from 6.586 billion USD at the end of December—marking the steepest weekly decline since September 2019.

Inflation in the UK eased faster than expected toward the end of 2025, and markets are currently pricing in two BoE rate cuts this year. However, analysts view this as overly optimistic: persistently weak growth and subdued inflation could ultimately weigh on the currency. Upcoming soft employment and inflation data for December will be key to reassessing the likelihood of a rate cut as early as February, though markets currently assign low odds to such a move.

Next week brings key releases, including consumer prices and labour market data, followed by GDP figures on Thursday. A Reuters poll suggests the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to November, with annual growth estimated at around 1.1%.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3455 USD. The range is expected to extend toward 1.3395 USD, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.3415 USD. Once complete, the downtrend may resume toward 1.3290 USD, with further potential to 1.3220 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bearish near-term outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has established a tight consolidation range around 1.3440 USD. A downward move toward 1.3395 USD is in progress, and a break below this level would open the door to further declines toward 1.3290 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is below 20 and trending lower, indicating sustained selling momentum.

Conclusion

Despite improving sentiment and a sharp reduction in speculative short positions, the pound remains vulnerable to downside risks from domestic data and shifting BoE expectations. Technically, the pair retains a near-term bearish bias, with key support levels at 1.3395 USD and 1.3290 USD. A break below these levels could accelerate declines, while any sustained recovery would likely require stronger-than-expected UK data in the coming week.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Jan

Natural Gas prices plunge over 10%. Profit-taking observed in precious metals.

By JustMarkets

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by -0.09%. The S&P 500 (US500) shed -0.53%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by -1.00%. The US stock markets continued their decline on Wednesday, retreating from recent record highs amid mixed corporate reports, conflicting macro data, and rising geopolitical tensions. The technology sector faced the most significant pressure: semiconductor stocks faced a sell-off following reports of restrictions from China, which notably soured overall market sentiment. Macroeconomic statistics failed to pivot the market: moderate inflation and stable consumption only confirmed expectations that the Fed’s current policy will remain unchanged, failing to offset the impact of corporate and political factors. Wells Fargo shares fell by -3.9% after the company missed profit and revenue forecasts. Bank of America shares declined -3.6% despite beating expectations, while Citigroup dropped -0.3% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue figures. JPMorgan shares fell -0.3%, extending a -4.1% slide from the previous session following disappointing quarterly results.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell -0.53%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by +0.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday up +0.46%.

On Thursday, silver prices (XAG) dropped sharply by approximately -6%, falling below $88 per ounce and retreating from recently reached all-time highs. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Donald Trump delayed the introduction of new import duties on critical minerals, reducing short-term geopolitical and trade risks. An additional factor in the decline was the weakened appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets. Demand waned following Trump’s statements that he had received assurances regarding the cessation of executions of protesters in Iran, which eased fears of potential US military intervention and regional escalation.

WTI crude oil prices declined by approximately -3% on Thursday to around $60 per barrel, snapping a five-session winning streak. The correction was triggered by easing geopolitical tensions following comments from US President Donald Trump, which lowered expectations of an imminent military strike on Iran. Additional pressure came from EIA data showing a rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, although distillate stocks decreased. Together, these factors intensified profit-taking and accelerated the reversal of quotes after a prolonged rally.

US natural gas prices (XNG) plunged by -10%, approaching their lowest levels since October 17, due to a reduction in gas flows to LNG export facilities. Gas deliveries to LNG plants on Wednesday dropped to a two-month low of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) due to reduced supplies to Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant and the Freeport LNG plant.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained +1.48%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed +0.56%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of +0.14% yesterday. On Wednesday, PRC regulators raised minimum margin requirements for stock transactions from 80% to 100%, effectively restricting leverage and highlighting Beijing’s commitment to curbing excessive speculation and systemic risks in capital markets.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) traded virtually unchanged near $0.668, holding close to a two-week low. Australian consumer inflation expectations remained at a high level of 4.6% in January, virtually unchanged from December, indicating persistent concerns over rising prices. Nevertheless, markets remain skeptical of imminent policy tightening: the probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February is estimated at approximately 27%, while it rises to about 76% by May.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,926.60 −37.14 (−0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,149.63 −42.36 (−0.09%)

DAX (DE40) 25,286.24 −134.42 (−0.53%)

FTSE 100 10,184.35 +47.00 (+0.46%)

USD Index 99.10 (−0.04%)

News feed for: 2026.01.15

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Jan

Markets gripped by geopolitics, uncertainty & Trump

By ForexTime

Risk-heavy week leaves investors on edge
Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency week-to-date
US Supreme Court scheduled to rule on Trump’s tariffs
Gold & Silver rally to fresh all-time highs
Bitcoin hits highest level in two-months above $96,000

It’s been a tense week defined by geopolitics, concerns over the Fed’s independence, and anticipation ahead of a US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs.

This messy mashup of high-risk events has created a smog of uncertainty, with investors adopting a defensive approach toward risk.

Nevertheless, European shares clawed back some losses this morning after a modest dip in the previous session, but US equity futures are pointing to a shaky open.

Geopolitical flashpoints across the globe, concerning Iran and Ukraine, have dominated headlines, boosting the appetite for safe-haven assets. On top of this, Trump recently threatened 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, and as expected, China has threatened to retaliate.

On the trade front, the US Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. Prediction markets are giving the administration only a 30% chance of prevailing.

(Source Polymarkets)

Equity markets may experience a relief rally if the court strikes down the tariffs, but gains may be capped by trade policy uncertainty.

In the FX space, the Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency this week amid rising political uncertainty in Japan. The USDJPY is slowly approaching the danger zone, with speculation growing over a potential intervention. With the Fed expected to cut rates twice in 2026 and the BoJ seen hiking twice, this divergence in monetary policy could signal a selloff down the road.

Looking at earnings, JPMorgan’s fourth-quarter results topped consensus on most measures. However, investment-banking fees dropped by 5%, missing the bank’s own guidance. In result, JPMorgan shares tanked over 4% – taking 2026 gains to negative 3.5%. This rocky start to earnings dragged the us equities lower, with the Dow Jones ending almost 1% lower.

Commodities have been a bright spot this week, with both gold and silver hitting fresh all-time highs. Silver has gained over 25% since the start of 2026, adding to the whopping 148% rally seen last year. Gold is lagging, rising 7% this month thanks to heightened geopolitical risk, fears over the Fed’s independence, and bets around lower US rates.

With silver hitting $91.55 this morning, could $100 be on the cards by the end of the month? Prices are trading less than 10% away from this level as of writing.

Oil prices slipped on Wednesday after seeing their biggest four-day rally in more than six months. The negative developments in Iran and possible intervention by the United States have fuelled concerns over supply disruptions impacting around 3.3 million bpd of the country’s output. While oil benchmarks are pushing higher, concerns over ongoing oversupply may limit upside gains.

In the crypto space, Bitcoin jumped to a two-month high as prices punched above $96,000. The “OG” crypto drew strength from the latest US inflation report, which rose less than expected, while concerns over the Fed’s independence offered further support. Bitcoin is up over 8% year-to-date, with the next bullish level of interest at $100,000.

Trump

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Jan

The Bull Market Is Ending

Source: Adrian Day (1/13/26)

Global Analyst Adrian Day looks at the U.S. stock market and “the great rotation” underway.

The Great Rotation in equities is underway, with the U.S. large-cap tech sector losing its dominance as other sectors, markets, and asset classes take over.

And dominance it is: Nvidia Corp. (NVDA:NASDAQ) alone has a larger valuation than the entire markets of Canada or the U.K. That alone might make one scratch one’s head. The U.S. market had a good year: up 17% (for the S&P) is hardly shabby. But this was barely half of the international markets (per MSCI World ex-US Index) while specific long-ignored asset classes came to the fore: copper equities rose 82% while gold and silver jumped 155% (per iShares Copper Miners ETF and VanEck Gold miners ETF).

There Are Many Signs of a Top

Signs of a top in U.S. stocks abound. The most obvious sign is extreme valuation. By most measures, the market is more expensive today than it was in 2022, 2008, 2000, and even 1929.

There are many illustrations we could provide of this, price to earnings, price to sales, price to book, the Schiller CAPE ratio, and more. This is a fact, not conjecture.

Of course, markets can stay overvalued for long periods, as indeed has this one, but there are signs that the “end is nigh.” Market concentration is a record (the gap between the index and an equal-weighted index, for example, has never been great).

Market speculation is extreme, with margins up over 40% in the last year, record foreign and retail participation, and new speculative vehicles (such as 3x ETFs and one-day options) created to feed the appetite. Simply the length of this bull market (see graph) should give pause. Investor David Snyder has a list of 27 “boxes to check for near the end of the secular bull market,” and he says that now all 27 are checked.

The Market Leaders Are Now Rolling Over

That alone should give pause. Market action is also signaling something is up, with the S&P index only barely etching out a new high in the last two months, while leader Nvidia is down meaningfully over this period. One by one, in September, October, and November, the Magnificent Seven have been topping Microsoft Corp. (MSFT:NASDAQ), Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ). Yes, the Great Rotation is underway. There is an old saying that a market bottom may be an event, but a top is a process. We are experiencing that process unfolding now.

Foreign Markets Taking the Lead From the US

The most obvious beneficiaries have been, and will likely continue to be, both international markets and commodity stocks. Even after that huge outperformance, international equities are still the cheapest they have been relative to the U.S. for 50 years. We expect this outperformance to continue for a few years, as it usually does when foreign markets outperform by a wide margin.

Relative leadership moves in a long cycle: this period of U.S. dominance has lasted nearly 15 years — the U.S. bull market has been going on longer, of course, 17 years now, almost a record — while the previous period of international dominance lasted seven years.

It would be highly unusual for foreign markets to outperform the U.S. by only one year. To return to long-term values relative to the U.S., international markets would have to triple (assuming the U.S. stays flat). And foreign equities are getting help from economic fundamentals, and many foreign economies are growing faster than the U.S., while a decline in the dollar leads many U.S. investors to look abroad.

Commodity Stocks Were 2025’s Top Performers

As for commodity equities, despite the huge rallies last year, they remain close to 100-year lows relative to the stock market. So there is plenty of scope for a return to more average relative valuations. The traditional factors that can lead to higher resource prices — including significant underinvestment over a period — are certainly in place. So too is the likelihood of higher inflation and a lower dollar. Resource cycles tend to be long, so, again, we should not expect the copper and gold outperformance to be a one-off.

But there is now something else. For the AI sector to be successful — and meet current goals — natural gas, uranium, copper, and silver must all go up significantly. The commodities are the gold miners’ picks and shovels for the AI sector. Planned AI capex for this year and next is $2 trillion, with 850 data centers slated to be built in the U.S. over the next five years. Even if projections are cut in half, there will still be a massive pick-up in demand for these commodities, and the inability of production to keep up will mean higher prices.

Other Parts of the Market Have Lagged and Are Undervalued

Other sectors of the market remain at extreme levels of relative undervaluation: value is at its cheapest relative to growth in more than 50 years. Value stocks would need to compound at 20% per year more than growth stocks for five years to return to their long-term relative valuations. Small caps are also undervalued relative to large caps.

So as the leaders of the long U.S. bull market roll over, the emphasis should be on value and small-cap stocks, on sectors that have lagged, but most of all on international markets and commodity stocks.

Do You Want To Be Shocked?

We referred to the potential end of the secular bull market.

Most would consider that this got underway in early 2009, after the Great Financial Crisis. But if one takes a longer-term view, one could argue that the bull market started far earlier, and we have seen a growing “financialization” of the economy for nearly 40 years.

One analyst who looks at markets through a very long telescope is Robert Prechter of the Elliott Wave Theorist.

He has produced a stunning graphic showing how stock market valuations in this period have become progressively more extreme, but significantly well above the 60-year period before.

When he showed an earlier version of what he calls the “Pluto chart” in his presentation at the New Orleans conference, it was met with audible gasps.

Writes Mr.. Prechter, from EWI’s Elliott Wave Theorist, November 14, 2025, “at the end of last month, investors were paying 7.85 times the book value of S&P 400 Industrial companies, and they were content with a measly 1.16% annual dividend yield from companies in the S&P 500 Composite Index. T-bills pay more than triple that amount. Clearly, there is no income reason to buy stocks; the only reason to buy them is a belief that other investors will bid prices even higher than they already are. [This chart] is a snapshot of today’s unprecedented degree of financial optimism.”

Call It What You Like, This Is Bullish for Gold

When the Federal Reserve launched its new Treasury buying program last month, Chairman Jerome Powell and others went out of their way to emphasize that this was not QE. Well, QE or not, something dramatic occurred at the end of the year, as the Fed started purchasing Treasuries at a frantic pace, $160 billion in “reverse repos” during the month, most of it in the last few days of the year, with an unprecedented $100 billion plus on the last day of the year.

This is a multiple of the Fed’s target for $40 billion a month in its “Reserve Management Purchases” program announced after its last meeting.

To be sure, the reverse repo purchases are a separate program. But both represent the Federal Reserve purchasing Treasuries and adding liquidity. The press dutifully reported that this was to “steady the markets over year-end.”

Was it perhaps connected with the then-pending Venezuela operation?

There is speculation that it could be tied to a major bank unable to meet margin calls on a large short silver position.

QE or note QE, such massive liquidity injections are wildly bullish for gold, even more so than lower interest rates, and the market’s action since the Fed announcement bears that out.

TOP BUYS this week include Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. (MTA:TSX.V; MTA:NYSE American), Midland Exploration Inc. (MD:TSX.V), Lara Exploration Ltd. (LRA:TSX.V), and Kingsmen Creatives Ltd. (KMEN:SI).

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd., Midland Exploration Inc., Apple Inc., and Lara Exploration Ltd.
Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd., Midland Exploration Inc., Lara Exploration Ltd., and Kingsmen Creatives Ltd. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd., Midland Exploration Inc., Lara Exploration Ltd., and Kingsmen Creatives Ltd. . I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2023. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.

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