InvestMacro

By Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.86%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.30%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.20% higher. Markets increased bets on Fed easing after the ADP report showed an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs. The financial sector led strongly: Wells Fargo and Citi shares gained 3.5% each, while UnitedHealth jumped 4.7% thanks to improved expectations for costs and demand. Among tech companies, Marvell stood out, rising 7.9% on an optimistic prognosis for data centers and AI hardware, while Microsoft fell 2.5% after temporary concerns over reduced quotas for AI products.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per USD, reaching a monthly high thanks to US dollar weakness and signs of Canadian economic resilience. Stronger‑than‑expected GDP growth increased the likelihood of a pause in the Bank of Canada easing. Additional support came from rising oil and copper prices, which improved trade conditions despite weak manufacturing PMI.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.27 per USD, its highest since July, amid US dollar weakness and a resilient domestic labor market. Mexico’s low unemployment rate of 2.6% reduces the need for Banxico to ease policy quickly, supporting the attractiveness of high real interest rates.

European equities traded mixed on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.16%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.68%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.10% lower. European markets were buoyed by optimism over Fed easing after weak US labor data, despite mixed ECB signals: Lagarde noted inflation nearing target, while Lane warned of risks of acceleration. Corporate news drove gains: ASML rose by 2.6% after rating upgrades, Inditex surged 9% on strong results, and Stellantis and Airbus climbed 7.7% and 1.5% respectively.

Swiss franc held near 0.80 per USD, close to multi‑year highs ahead of the SNB meeting. Inflation in Switzerland was unexpectedly low again, with core prices falling to a four‑year low, complicating the central bank’s task. With rates already at 0%, the SNB remains cautious about easing, wary of financial stability risks, though it leaves the option open. Policymakers signaled that a return to negative rates is unlikely, but policy adjustments may be needed if the expected moderate inflation rebound fails to materialize.

WTI oil rose above $59/barrel amid geopolitical tensions: Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and lack of progress in talks with Moscow heightened supply risks. Additional uncertainty came from the US signals toward Venezuela’s oil sector. However, gains were capped by signs of weak demand and rising US crude and product inventories (EIA data), pointing to potential oversupply.

Asian equities traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.18%.

The Australian dollar climbed to 0.661 USD, a two‑month high, supported by unexpectedly strong domestic spending, which boosted expectations of another RBA rate hike in 2026. Household spending in October rose 1.3% versus 0.6% projections, reinforcing tightening prospects. At next week’s meeting, markets still expect the rate to remain at 3.6%, but the RBA’s tone may turn more hawkish amid overheating risks and persistent inflationary pressures.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.39%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.25%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.59% higher. Risk appetite supported Bitcoin’s rally, while the AI and software sector helped stabilize sentiment. Key drivers included Boeing, Nvidia, Oracle, and Intel, which posted significant gains. Investors continue to monitor macro data and the delayed PCE report ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, where markets still expect a 25 bp rate cut. Rising sovereign bond yields limited a stronger market recovery.

Bitcoin climbed back above $93,000, recovering confidently after its sharp drop below $84,000 earlier this month amid renewed risk demand. The rally was supported by expectations of a 25 bp Fed rate cut next week. Additional momentum came from rumors that Kevin Hassett may be appointed Fed Chair, reinforcing dovish sentiment, along with positive industry news: the SEC is preparing an “innovation exemption” for digital asset companies, and Vanguard announced plans to launch digital assets-focused funds.

European equities closed mostly higher on Tuesday, reflecting improved sentiment as investors assessed the trajectory of global interest rates. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.28%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.49%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.01%. The banking sector supported gains after Japanese bond stabilization, with BNP Paribas and ING up about 2%, and Santander rising on the sale of its Polish unit stake. Bayer surged more than 12%. The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% to 9,720 points, its highest in three weeks, driven by British banks after a successful stress test confirmed sector resilience.

Palladium (XPD) rose to $1,460/oz, its highest in nearly a month, supported by improved demand expectations and signs of limited supply. The launch of palladium futures in China added hedging tools and boosted interest from the world’s largest metals consumer. Medium‑term outlook points to supply deficits lasting at least until 2026.

Platinum (XPT) fell below $1,650/oz after recently hitting a six‑week high, as rising US bond yields and weak manufacturing data in the US and China triggered profit‑taking. Before the correction, platinum had rallied on expectations of recovering Chinese demand following the launch of a new physical contract on the Guangzhou exchange. Year‑to‑date, platinum has gained more than 70%, supported by supply disruptions in South Africa, safe‑haven demand, and strong Chinese buying.

WTI slipped slightly on Tuesday to around $59/barrel as the market digested mixed geopolitical and supply signals. Tensions with Venezuela escalated after Donald Trump declared its airspace “closed,” while Ukrainian strikes on OPEC+‑related facilities temporarily disrupted operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed current production levels will be maintained in Q1 2026 amid oversupply risks.
Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.16% higher.

The Australian dollar climbed to a five‑week high near $0.657 on Wednesday, despite weak GDP data. Australia’s economy grew just 0.4% QoQ, below expectations, reducing the likelihood of the RBA tightening next year. Markets are now almost certain the rate will remain at 3.6% at next week’s meeting, while Governor Bullock emphasized readiness to act if inflationary pressures return.

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.90%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.53%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.38% lower. Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key macro data this week, including the delayed September PCE inflation report and the upcoming FOMC decision. The tech sector saw volatility, while retail stocks showed resilience thanks to the holiday season momentum: Home Depot and Walmart posted gains. Manufacturing data pointed to further weakness: the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, the lowest in four months and below expectations of 48.6. The sector has contracted for nine consecutive months, with the pace of decline accelerating compared to September (48.7).

Selling pressure intensified on digital assets. Bitcoin fell more than 6%, dropping below $85,000 and extending the decline that began in November when it first broke under $90,000. Sentiment worsened after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) declared digital currency activities illegal. This triggered a sharp drop in digital assets company stocks on the Hong Kong exchange, while Ethereum and Solana fell more than 8% and 7% respectively, fueling a global digital assets sell‑off.

European equities mostly declined on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.04%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.32% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.18% lower. Airbus shares dropped 5.7% after an intraday plunge of more than 10% due to a new quality issue affecting dozens of A320 aircraft, despite most planes with prior software glitches already being modified.

On Tuesday, WTI prices traded around $59.3/barrel, stabilizing after a gain of more than 1% in the previous session. Support continued from geopolitical risks threatening global oil supplies and the latest OPEC+ production decision. Tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated after President Donald Trump threatened to treat Venezuelan airspace as closed.

The US natural gas prices kept rising amid cold weather and strong LNG exports. In early December, US natural gas futures surpassed $4.8/MMBtu, hitting a three‑year high and extending November’s 15% rally. Severe cold from December 3-7 across the Northeast and Great Lakes boosted demand, with projections pointing to below‑normal temperatures in the coming weeks. Storage withdrawals of 11 bcf in the week ending November 21 confirmed a tightening supply‑demand balance.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.67%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.44% lower. On Tuesday morning, the Hang Seng rose to 26,218, extending the prior session’s gains. Sentiment improved on expectations that weak November PMI data may prompt new stimulus measures ahead of next week’s Central Economic Work Conference. Fresh data also supported the market: Hong Kong retail sales in October posted the strongest growth since late 2023, reflecting a steady influx of tourists.