InvestMacro

Mid-Week outlook: Gold hits ATH, Trump in Davos, NatGas surges

Gold hits fresh record above $4885
Trump lands in Davos for speech – Greenland in focus
Natgas gains over 50% since last Friday
Bitcoin under pressure below $90,000

It’s been an intense week marked by geopolitical tensions and extreme market volatility.

Markets seem to be stabilizing ahead of Trump’s speech in Davos, with a rebound in long-dated Japanese bonds lifting risk appetite.

Trump is expected to speak at 1:30 PM GMT about the US economy, the international “Board of Peace”, and most importantly, Greenland negotiations.

Should he strike a more conciliatory tone and retract initial threats, this could lift overall market sentiment.

In the commodities space, gold surged to a fresh all-time high above $4885 – pushing 2026 gains to over 13%.

It’s been a flat week for silver thus far, but it remains a champion in the precious metal space, up over 30% year-to-date.

With geopolitical flashpoints across the globe accelerating the flight to safety, the path of least resistance for gold remains north.

Beyond geopolitics, central bank buying and prospects of lower US rates are likely to keep gold/silver bulls in the game.

Speaking of bulls, natural gas has experienced an explosive rally, surging over 50% since last Friday to reach $4.8/MMBtu – its highest level in five weeks.

This rally was sparked by extreme weather forecasts: NOAA has issued warnings for severe cold and winter storms across the US through late January, which is set to sharply boost heating demand.

Looking at cryptos, Bitcoin remains under pressure with prices trading below $90,000.

Overall market caution has contributed to the recent selloff, with weakness below $87,500 signaling a further decline toward $83,000 and $77,500.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Jan

Despite its steep environmental costs, AI might also help save the planet

By Nir Kshetri, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence has sharply increased electricity and water consumption, raising concerns about the technology’s environmental footprint and carbon emissions. But the story is more complicated than that.

I study emerging technologies and how their development and deployment influence economic, institutional and societal outcomes, including environmental sustainability. From my research, I see that even as AI uses a lot of energy, it can also make systems cleaner and smarter.

AI is already helping to save energy and water, cut emissions and make businesses more efficient in agriculture, data centers, the energy industry, building heating and cooling, and aviation.

Agriculture

Agriculture is responsible for nearly 70% of the world’s freshwater use, and competition for water is growing.

AI is helping farmers use water more efficiently. Argentinian climate tech startup Kilimo, for example, tackles water scarcity with an AI-powered irrigation platform. The software uses large amounts of data, machine learning, and weather and satellite measurements to determine when and how much to water which areas of fields, ensuring that only the plants that actually need water receive it.

Chile’s Ministry of Agriculture has found that in that country’s Biobío region, farms using Kilimo’s precision irrigation systems have reduced water use by up to 30% while avoiding overirrigation. Using less water also reduces the amount of energy needed to pump it from the ground and around a farm.

Kilimo is one example that shows how AI can create economic incentives for sustainability: The amount of water farmers save from precision irrigation is verified, and credits for those savings are sold to local companies that want to offset some of their water use. The farmers then earn a profit – often 20% to 40% above their initial investment.

Data centers

U.S. data centers consumed about 176 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2023, accounting for roughly 4.4% of total U.S. electricity use. This number increased to 183 TWh in 2024. This growing energy footprint has made improving data center efficiency a critical priority for the operators of the data centers themselves, as well as the companies that rely on them – including cloud providers, tech firms and large enterprises running AI workloads – both to reduce costs and meet sustainability and regulatory goals.

AI is helping data centers become more efficient. The number of global internet users grew from 1.9 billion in 2010 to 5.6 billion in 2025. Global internet traffic surged from 20.2 exabytes per month in 2010 to 521.9 exabytes per month in 2025 – a more than 25-fold increase.

Despite the surge in internet traffic and users, data center electricity consumption has grown more moderately, rising from 1% of global electricity use in 2010 to 2% in 2025. Much of this is thanks to efficiency gains, including those enabled by AI.

AI systems analyze operational data in data centers – including workloads, temperature, cooling efficiency and energy use – to spot energy-hungry tasks. It adjusts computing resources to match demand and optimizes cooling. This lets data centers run smoothly without wasting electricity.

At Microsoft, AI is improving energy efficiency by using predictive analytics to schedule computing tasks. This lets servers enter low-power modes during periods of low demand, saving electricity during slower times. Meta uses AI to control cooling and airflow in its data centers. The systems stay safe while using less energy than they might otherwise.

In Frankfurt, Germany, Equinix uses AI to manage cooling and adjust energy use at its data center based on real-time weather. This improved operational efficiency by 9%, The New York Times reported.

Energy and fuels

Energy companies are using AI to boost efficiency and cut emissions. They deploy drones with cameras to inspect pipelines. AI systems analyze the images to more quickly detect corrosion, cracks, dents and leaks, which allows problems to be addressed before they escalate, improving overall safety and reliability.

Shell has AI systems that monitor methane emissions from its facilities by analyzing methane concentrations and wind data, such as speed and direction. This helps the system track how methane disperses, enabling it to pinpoint emission sources and optimize energy use. By identifying the largest leaks quickly, the system allows targeted maintenance and operational adjustments to further reduce emissions. Using that technology, the company says it aims to nearly eliminate methane leaks by 2030.

AI could speed up innovation in clean energy by improving solar panels, batteries and carbon-capture systems. In the longer term, it could enable major breakthroughs, including advanced biofuels or even usable nuclear fusion, while helping track and manage carbon-absorbing resources such as forests, wetlands and carbon storage facilities.

Shell uses AI across its operations to cut emissions. Its process optimizer for liquefied natural gas analyzes sensor data to find more efficient equipment settings, boosting energy efficiency and reducing emissions.

Buildings and district heating

The energy needed to heat, cool and power buildings is responsible for roughly 28% of total global emissions. AI initiatives are starting to reduce building emissions through smart management and predictive optimization.

In downtown Copenhagen, for instance, the local utility company HOFOR deployed thousands of sensors tracking temperatures, humidity and building energy flows. The system uses information about each building to forecast heating needs 24 hours in advance and automatically adjust supply to match demand.

The Copenhagen system was first piloted in schools and multifamily housing, with support from the Nordic Smart City Network and climate-innovation grants. It has since expanded to dozens of sites. Results were clear: Across participating buildings, energy use fell 15% to 25%, peak heating demand dropped by up to 30%, and carbon dioxide emissions decreased by around 10,000 tonnes per year.

AI can also help households and offices save energy. Smart home systems optimize heating, cooling and appliance use. Researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that by adopting AI, medium-sized office buildings in the U.S. could reduce energy use by 21% and cut carbon dioxide emissions by 35%.

Aviation

About 2% of all human-caused carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 came from aviation, which emitted about 882 megatons of carbon dioxide.

Contrails, the thin ice clouds formed when aircraft exhaust freezes at cruising altitudes, contribute more than one-third of aviation’s overall warming effect by trapping heat in the atmosphere. AI can optimize flight routes and altitudes in real time to reduce contrail formation by avoiding areas where the air is more humid and therefore more likely to produce contrails.

Airlines have also used AI to improve fuel efficiency. In 2023, Alaska Airlines used 1.2 million gallons less fuel by using AI to analyze weather, wind, turbulence, airspace restrictions and traffic to recommend the most efficient routes, saving around 5% on fuel and emissions for longer flights.

In short, AI affects the environment in both positive and negative ways. Already, it has helped industries cut energy use, lower emissions and use water more efficiently. Expanding these solutions could drive a cleaner, more sustainable planet.

About the Author:

Nir Kshetri, Professor of Management, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

21 Jan

Stock indices are under sell-off pressure due to rising geopolitical risks

By JustMarkets

The US stock markets closed with a sharp decline: the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) shed 2.06%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 2.39%. The sell-off was triggered by mounting trade risks after President Donald Trump threatened to impose new 10% tariffs on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, which could be hiked to 25% by June, due to their opposition to US control over Greenland. These statements undermined expectations for stable cross-border trade and intensified overall market risk aversion. Stocks were further pressured by rising US Treasury yields, while reports of a Danish pension fund’s plans to reduce its holdings in US Treasuries added to investor anxiety.

The heaviest losses were sustained by major tech companies and semiconductor manufacturers: Nvidia (NVDA) shares dropped 4.4%, Broadcom (AVGO) fell by 5.4%, and Oracle (ORCL) slid 5.8%, as investors actively trimmed positions in high-beta stocks.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to around 17.62 per U.S. dollar, snapping its rally toward July 2024 highs, amid renewed geopolitical and trade frictions that triggered a global flight to safety. New US threats of tariffs on European goods boosted demand for safer, more liquid assets, putting pressure on emerging market currencies, including the peso. Nevertheless, fundamental support for the Mexican currency remains due to attractive domestic asset yields and an increasingly cautious stance from the Bank of Mexico. Mexico manages to maintain one of the highest real yield differentials among emerging markets, supporting capital inflows into peso-denominated fixed-income instruments.

European equity markets mostly declined yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.03%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.61%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 1.34%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.67%. The US President Donald Trump ramped up his administration’s efforts to acquire Greenland from Denmark following the imposition of tariffs on key European trading partners, along with a threat to set a 200% tariff on French wines in response to President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to join Trump’s proposed “Peace Council.” Against this backdrop, banks and insurance companies showed sharp declines, following the global downturn in the financial sector, as rising Japanese government bond yields added pressure to European sovereign debt markets.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 1%, climbing toward the $60 per barrel level and recovering from a dip below $59 earlier in the session. The market was supported by reports that Kazakhstan’s largest oil producer temporarily suspended production due to fires at energy facilities. Simultaneously, traders continued to assess the heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe. Ahead of his speech in Davos, President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States must secure control over Greenland. The sharpening rhetoric revived fears of a broader trade conflict between the US and Europe, which could potentially weigh on global economic growth, although the direct impact of these risks on oil prices remains limited for now.
On Tuesday, the US natural gas prices (XNG) surged more than 25% to $3.9 per MMBtu, their highest level in three weeks, as prognoses of a sharp cold snap drove weather-driven price gains. The most severe cold is expected in the final week of January. Meanwhile, gas production remains high, and LNG exports have slightly decreased.

Asian markets declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.90%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) shed 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.66%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) held near a two-week high on Wednesday as the US currency continued to be weighed down by intensifying geopolitical tensions. Investors are also focused on the upcoming release of Australian labor market data, which could influence monetary policy expectations. Projections point to a recovery in employment for December by approximately 30,000 people following an unexpected contraction in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.4%, in line with Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) estimates. Weaker-than-expected figures would reduce the likelihood of a rate hike in the near term.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) traded near $0.583, remaining close to a three-week high amid a weakening US dollar caused by renewed trade tensions between the US and the EU. On the domestic front, a series of encouraging macroeconomic data points toward an accelerating economic recovery in New Zealand, bolstering expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will begin tightening monetary policy in the second half of the year. While markets are pricing in almost no change for the February meeting, the probability of a rate hike by July already exceeds 50%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,796.86 −143.15 (−2.06%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,488.59 −870.74 (−1.76%)

DAX (DE40) 24,703.12 −255.94 (−1.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,126.78 −68.57 (−0.67%)

USD Index 99.58 −0.82% (−0.83%)

News feed for: 2026.01.21

UK Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 09:30 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Jan

Natural gas prices jumped more than 17%. Silver is at an all-time high

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices did not trade yesterday due to a bank holiday.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened above 1.39 against the US dollar. The currency was supported by a weakening US dollar and a mixed but overall moderately positive interpretation of the latest Canadian inflation data. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly rose to 2.4% in December, exceeding market expectations and coming in slightly above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) short-term projections, which had anticipated inflation fluctuations near the 2% target. At the same time, median core inflation fell to a yearly low of 2.5%, indicating a partial easing of underlying price pressures. However, the combination of higher headline inflation and persistent demand reinforced the case for a more cautious approach by the Bank of Canada regarding the timing and pace of potential interest rate cuts.

European equity markets mostly declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) dropped by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.78%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.26%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.39%. The DAX (DE40) slid to its lowest level since January 6, amid deteriorating sentiment in European markets due to the threat of renewed trade tensions between the US and the EU. The US President Donald Trump announced intentions to impose 10% tariffs starting February 1 on all imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, warning that the rate could be increased to 25% in the absence of an agreement on the “full and final purchase of Greenland.” These statements heightened investor fears of trade escalation, especially following reports that the European Union is considering retaliatory measures, including tariffs on US goods worth up to 93 billion euros or restricting US companies’ access to the European market. Against this backdrop, automaker stocks plummeted: shares of BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler Truck, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz lost up to 3.7%, reflecting the sector’s vulnerability to trade barriers.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to around 0.798 per US dollar, holding near 2011 highs as escalating geopolitical rhetoric from the US boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The rally was triggered by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the intent to impose new tariffs on European goods over the Greenland dispute, which increased global market nervousness and supported haven currencies. Investors are also focused on the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos, starting January 20. Key global central bankers, including Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel, are expected to speak. Markets continue to operate on the assumption that the SNB will maintain its key interest rate at 0% for the foreseeable future.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG) traded near $94.5 per ounce, remaining at record-high levels amid rising demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating tensions between the US and Europe. Additional volatility in the silver market in recent sessions was driven by the Trump administration’s decision to forgo tariffs on essential minerals, including silver, which was added to the US critical minerals list last year due to its key role in green energy technology and electronics.
Platinum prices (XPT) declined to approximately $2,340 per ounce but remained near record levels amid increased demand for precious metals as haven assets due to the worsening tensions between the US and Europe. Analysts note that Europe holds approximately $10 trillion in US bonds and stocks, part of which is held in sovereign wealth funds and could potentially be used as leverage in the new trade confrontation. Additional volatility in the platinum market in recent sessions came from Trump’s decision to temporarily hold off on tariffs for key minerals, including platinum, instead instructing the administration to seek alternative suppliers among international trade partners.

The US natural gas prices jumped more than 17% to $3.65 per MMBtu, sharply rebounding from a 13-week low of $3.10 recorded last week. The surge was driven by an intensifying Arctic cold wave sweeping across much of the country. A sudden shift from mild weather prognoses to a scenario of severe and prolonged cold triggered a rapid market re-evaluation as traders began pricing in significantly higher heating fuel demand.

Asian markets declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.65%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 1.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) shed 1.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.33%.

On Tuesday, the offshore yuan stabilized near the 6.96 level per dollar, remaining close to a 32-month high following the Chinese central bank’s decision to leave loan prime rates unchanged. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept the one-year and five-year benchmark rates at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, extending the period of policy stability to eight months and confirming a course of targeted economic support rather than broad-based monetary easing.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,940.01 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,359.33 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 25,297.13 −55.26 (−0.22%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,235.29 −3.65 (−0.04%)

USD Index 99.38 +0.05% (+0.05%)

News feed for: 2026.01.20

China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:45 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+2). – CHF (LOW)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Jan

Gold Hits Record High: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Instability Fuel Growth

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Tuesday, gold prices surged to around 4670 USD per ounce, reaching a new record. This price movement comes amid rising demand for safe-haven assets, driven by the escalating trade disputes between the US and the EU.

Recent reports indicate that Denmark is bolstering its military presence in Greenland, following US President Donald Trump’s threats to use force to establish control over the island. Additionally, Trump has threatened to impose a 10% import tariff on goods from eight European countries starting 1 February, with the possibility of increasing the rate to 25% by June if the US is not permitted to purchase Greenland. This has raised concerns within the EU, prompting an emergency summit this Thursday to discuss possible countermeasures.

The delayed release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index this week is also drawing attention, as it could provide further clarity on inflation trends and the future direction of US monetary policy.

Gold’s strong performance this year is further fuelled by inflows into defensive assets amid geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela and Iran, as well as ongoing concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s autonomy.

Technical Analysis:

On the H4 XAUUSD chart, gold is pushing through its fifth wave of growth, with the 4,800 level as the next target. After reaching this level, we anticipate a potential pullback towards 4,660. The MACD indicator supports this upward momentum, as its signal line remains at highs, pointing upward.

On the H1 chart, the price has broken through the 4,717 level, forming a consolidation range around it. The trend is likely to continue towards 4,800, with the Stochastic oscillator confirming this bullish outlook, as the signal line remains below 20 and under upward pressure.

Conclusion:

Gold continues to hit new highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and market instability. With ongoing risks in trade relations and concerns about US monetary policy, the demand for defensive assets such as gold remains strong. Technically, gold’s momentum is expected to continue upward, potentially reaching 4,800 before any correction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

19 Jan

Trump escalates trade risks with Europe over Greenland

By JustMarkets

On Friday, US stock markets generally ended the session without a clear direction amid mixed geopolitical signals, uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policy, and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season. By Friday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.17% (-0.28% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) shed 0.06% (-0.06% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.07% lower (-0.34% for the week). Investors also assessed political news: President Donald Trump signaled that he might keep economic advisor Kevin Hassett in his current role rather than nominating him as Fed Chair, fueling speculation that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh could be the frontrunner for the position.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.22% (+0.19% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.65% (-1.00% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39% (+0.94% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04% (+1.09% for the week). Attention was also on macroeconomic data: German inflation in December 2025 was confirmed at 1.8%, dropping from 2.3% in November and falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since September 2024.

European stock markets opened sharply lower on Monday following the escalation of trade risks after US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding potential new tariffs on goods from eight European countries. The measure is viewed as a leverage tool to pressure these nations into supporting the Greenland acquisition plan. According to Trump, NATO allies opposing the plan, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, the UK, France, and the Netherlands, could face 10% tariffs as early as February 1, rising to 25% in June if no agreement is reached. In response, European leaders have begun discussing potential countermeasures, including reviving last year’s initiatives to impose tariffs on American goods, while French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly called for the activation of the EU’s anti-coercion instrument.

On Friday, silver (XAG) fell by more than 4%, dropping below $88.7 per ounce, continuing a sharp decline following high volatility in the previous session as the US decision to refrain from imposing tariffs on critical minerals removed a key market driver. Earlier in the week, threats of potential US import tariffs triggered a rapid rally in commodities: silver and other metals hit record levels as traders rushed to direct shipments to the US before potential restrictions took effect.
WTI crude oil prices traded near $59.3 per barrel on Monday following a fourth consecutive week of gains, as the market entered a consolidation phase amid easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. Supply disruption concerns moderated after US President Donald Trump suggested a potential delay in military action last week, following Tehran’s pledge to halt the execution of protesters. However, renewed trade conflict risks remain a significant source of uncertainty for global energy demand. Over the weekend, the US President announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on goods from eight European countries effective February 1, with the potential to increase the rate to 25% by June, absent an agreement on the “purchase of Greenland.” These developments have intensified fears of a global economic slowdown and subsequent downward pressure on oil demand.

Asian markets traded with mixed results last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.00%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.77%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a 5-day positive result of 1.95%.

On Monday, the offshore yuan strengthened to approximately 6.96 per dollar, reaching a 32-month high supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which set its strongest daily fixing in over two years. This factor outweighed mixed economic data: China’s Q4 GDP growth slowed to 4.5% from 4.8% in Q3, the weakest pace in nearly three years, yet still exceeded market expectations of 4.4%. For the full year, the economy grew by 5%, meeting the government’s target and matching 2024 growth rates, largely due to a record trade surplus as robust exports to non-US markets offset pressure from American tariffs. Meanwhile, December statistics pointed to weakening domestic consumption and an accelerating decline in investment, while industrial production showed improvement.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,940.01 −4.46 (−0.064%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,359.33 −83.11 (−0.17%)

DAX (DE40) 25,297.13 −55.26 (−0.22%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,235.29 −3.65 (−0.04%)

USD Index 99.38 +0.05% (+0.05%)

News feed for: 2026.01.19

China GDP (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (LOW)
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Canada Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – CAD (LOW)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Jan

Currency Speculators bets improving for GBP, MXN and going bearish for JPY

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning and the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (5,268 contracts) with Bitcoin (803 contracts), the Brazilian Real (257 contracts), the Australian Dollar (114 contracts), the US Dollar Index (101 contracts) and also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-53,979 contracts), the EuroFX (-30,156 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-5,488 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-5,743 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,126 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-1,665 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Speculators bets improving for GBP, MXN and going bearish for JPY

Highlighting the latest currency data is the British pound sterling seeing improved sentiment, the Mexican peso with net contracts above +100,000 positions and the Japanese yen which is shedding speculator contracts.

The British pound sterling which saw its speculator bets rise for a seventh straight week in the latest updated data. Over the last seven weeks, there have been +67,951 contracts added to the GBP speculator standing. This has taken the GBP positioning from a highly bearish -93,221 contracts to this week’s -25,270 contracts, which is the least bearish level of the last 11 weeks. The British pound sterling positioning has been consistently on the bearish side, dating back to July of 2025—a span of 25 weeks. The British pound exchange rate against the US Dollar has fluctuated since that time and is actually down by about 300 pips from the July 2025 high.

The Mexican peso futures speculator bets dipped this week for the first time in four weeks. However, the peso position is strongly bullish at the current moment, with the overall net position above the 100,000 contract level for a fourth straight week and for the fifth time out of the last six weeks. These are currently the highest and most bullish levels for the peso since June of 2024. In the currency market trading, the peso has been on a steady uptrend since bottoming in February 2025. Since hitting that bottom, the peso is up by roughly 20% against the US dollar and is up by over 2% to start 2026.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Japanese yen has seen its net speculator position fall into a bearish net standing this week at -45,164 contracts. This was because of a huge decline on the week of over -53,000 contracts. The sentiment for the Japanese yen has shifted sharply, as the yen bullish position was above +100,000 contracts consistently for 21 weeks last year from March all the way to July. Since then, there has been a steady decline week to week and month to month that has culminated in a negative bearish position for the yen. The yen futures price has also been on a stark downtrend and is touching the lowest levels since 2024. Despite recent interest rates in Japan rising (which is usually a boost for the home currency), the yen has been going the opposite way. Giving caution to the yen bulls is the outlook for the new prime minister possibly being implementing a dovish policy and hindering the Bank of Japan plans to hike the interest rate further.

The Euro speculative position saw a large reduction in bullish bets this week. The change in this week’s speculative position looks like a cool off from a very high position, as the euro speculative contracts have now been over +100,000 for seven straight weeks and above the +100,000 net contract level in 27 out of the last 31 weeks. Last week marked the highest level (+162,812 net contracts) for Euro speculative positions since August of 2023. The Euro currency price seems to be in consolidation mode between the 1.1900 level on the top side and the 1.1500 level on the lower support. Currently in the month of January, the Euro is down by -1.3% but recently hit its highest level since 2021 in November at the high of 1.1979.

Bitcoin leads 5-Day Price Performance Changes

Currency market price changes this week were led by Bitcoin, which rose by almost 6%. The Mexican Peso was next with a 1.95% change over the past five days. The US Dollar Index was higher by 0.37%, and the New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.35%.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged with a 0.02% decline, followed by the Australian Dollar with a 0.07% decrease. Next up, the Japanese Yen was lower by 0.12%, and the British Pound, as well as the Brazilian Real, were both down by 0.20%. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.29%, followed by the Euro, which fell a similar 0.30% over the past five days.

The biggest movers over the past 90 days have been the Mexican Peso, which is up by approximately 5%. The Brazilian Real is up by almost 2% over that same period, while on the downside, the Japanese Yen has fallen sharply by -6.90% in the past 90 days. The New Zealand Dollar is down by -3.69% in the past 90 days.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (81 percent) and the EuroFX (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (76 percent), the Australian Dollar (63 percent) and Bitcoin (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (29 percent) and the US Dollar Index (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (34.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (79.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (90.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (28.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (19.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (76.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (62.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (62.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (83.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.7 percent)
Bitcoin (54.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.1 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (53 percent) and the Australian Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (34 percent), the British Pound (23 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-22 percent), the Swiss Franc (-15 percent) and Bitcoin (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (33.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (9.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (46.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (2.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-31.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-10.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-13.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	24.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.5	11.4	9.9
– Net Position:	-3,730	3,739	-9
– Gross Longs:	17,929	7,158	2,952
– Gross Shorts:	21,659	3,419	2,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.1	66.8	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-31.8	-12.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 132,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -30,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	55.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	75.5	5.0
– Net Position:	132,656	-179,767	47,111
– Gross Longs:	283,592	487,595	91,580
– Gross Shorts:	150,936	667,362	44,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	20.0	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-8.2	-0.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	46.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	34.5	14.0
– Net Position:	-25,270	25,504	-234
– Gross Longs:	79,003	97,243	28,832
– Gross Shorts:	104,273	71,739	29,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	70.2	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-24.9	22.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -53,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	38.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.3	23.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-45,164	45,819	-655
– Gross Longs:	111,743	114,303	44,360
– Gross Shorts:	156,907	68,484	45,015
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	62.5	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	21.2	-6.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -43,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	71.5	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.0	22.5	18.4
– Net Position:	-43,392	47,163	-3,771
– Gross Longs:	13,395	68,778	13,977
– Gross Shorts:	56,787	21,615	17,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	76.4	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	16.8	-11.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	55.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	34.8	14.4
– Net Position:	-42,250	45,815	-3,565
– Gross Longs:	62,705	122,096	28,109
– Gross Shorts:	104,955	76,281	31,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	30.4	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.2	-49.9	15.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	45.0	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	46.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-18,846	-3,610	22,456
– Gross Longs:	83,955	103,295	39,790
– Gross Shorts:	102,801	106,905	17,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	27.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.8	-44.0	22.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	81.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.6	23.8	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,851	49,362	-511
– Gross Longs:	9,613	69,662	4,002
– Gross Shorts:	58,464	20,300	4,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	89.6	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-7.4	29.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.7	33.1	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	77.9	1.1
– Net Position:	103,558	-108,180	4,622
– Gross Longs:	153,670	79,940	7,287
– Gross Shorts:	50,112	188,120	2,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	19.4	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-2.6	1.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.3	27.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	54.1	1.1
– Net Position:	17,874	-21,003	3,129
– Gross Longs:	52,400	21,753	4,017
– Gross Shorts:	34,526	42,756	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	46.3	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.3	30.7	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	5.3	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.9	5.8	4.8
– Net Position:	69	-134	65
– Gross Longs:	19,118	1,257	1,204
– Gross Shorts:	19,049	1,391	1,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	53.6	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.2	2.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium & EAFE MINI lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 13th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the strength score totaled a gain of 28 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 11,022 net contracts this week with an increase of 1,545 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in next tied at the top of the extreme standings with the Palladium speculator level at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score was a gain 9 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 1,225 net contracts this week with a small increase by 646 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in also tied this week in the extreme standings with a current 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a jump by 22 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 29,353 net contracts this week with a boost of 17,870 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week with the Long T-Bond speculator level at an 88 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 15 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 13,835 net contracts this week with an increase by 20,667 contracts in the speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Russell-Mini speculator level sits at an 88 percent score of its 3-year range with a six-week change in the strength score by a strong 33 percentage points.

The overall speculator position was a total of 11,437 net contracts this week with a jump by 13,540 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Cocoa speculator level is current at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score was a drop by -3 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -9,496 net contracts this week with a decline by -12,726 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Natural Gas speculator level is also at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -44 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -185,601 net contracts this week with a decrease of -20,042 contracts.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the WTI Crude speculator level resides at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 58,128 net contracts this week with a change of 776 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the Sugar speculator level at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score was a rise by 4 percentage points this week while the speculator position totaled -165,711 net contracts this week with a fall of -11,613 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Next, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The NZD speculator level is currently at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 5 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -48,851 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,488 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

18 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold which had a strong gain by 23,606 contracts with Silver (2,789 contracts), Steel (1,545 contracts) and Palladium (646 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-4,417 contracts) and with Platinum (-516 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Price Performance led by Silver and Steel

The metals markets saw Silver jump this week by approximately 12% over the past five days. Steel was also up strong by 5.77% over the past five days, while Gold rose by 1.65% and Platinum increased by 1.44%.

On the downside, Copper was lower by -0.64%, and Palladium saw the largest downside this week by -1.78%.

All the metals markets have been higher over the past 30 days and are also higher over the past 90 days. Silver has risen by over 100% in the past 90 days, while Platinum has gained by over 65% in the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (100 percent) and Steel (100 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (83 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (53 percent) and Platinum (55 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently but remain above the 50 percent midpoint of the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (73.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (64.0 percent)
Silver (53.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.4 percent)
Copper (83.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.1 percent)
Platinum (55.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (56.3 percent)
Palladium (100.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.7 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (91.3 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (28 percent) and Gold (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (9 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.4 percent)
Silver (-8.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-3.9 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (13.2 percent)
Platinum (4.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (5.3 percent)
Palladium (9.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.1 percent)
Steel (28.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 251,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	15.8	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	72.1	3.9
– Net Position:	251,238	-297,106	45,868
– Gross Longs:	296,183	83,382	66,220
– Gross Shorts:	44,945	380,488	20,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	17.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-16.8	23.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	28.1	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	64.6	8.1
– Net Position:	32,060	-55,292	23,232
– Gross Longs:	47,337	42,595	35,516
– Gross Shorts:	15,277	97,887	12,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	38.2	80.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	1.7	28.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,858 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	30.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	56.1	3.3
– Net Position:	53,441	-68,962	15,521
– Gross Longs:	97,415	82,378	24,507
– Gross Shorts:	43,974	151,340	8,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	11.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-2.1	13.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	24.3	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	54.7	5.2
– Net Position:	17,594	-23,806	6,212
– Gross Longs:	40,741	19,042	10,264
– Gross Shorts:	23,147	42,848	4,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	45.1	70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-1.3	-12.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.1	28.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	43.2	7.9
– Net Position:	1,225	-2,890	1,665
– Gross Longs:	9,949	5,536	3,205
– Gross Shorts:	8,724	8,426	1,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.6	-0.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.8	57.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	90.0	0.6
– Net Position:	11,022	-11,390	368
– Gross Longs:	13,437	20,592	564
– Gross Shorts:	2,415	31,982	196
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.1	-28.4	24.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (45,047 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (43,633 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (41,774 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (36,024 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (20,667 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12,726 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (10,650 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-179,227 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-100,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bond Price Performance led by small gains in SOFRs

In the bond markets price performance changes, the five-day percent changes were led by the three-month and one-month Secured Overnight Financing Rates (SOFR), which rose by 0.13% and 0.07%, respectively. The Fed Funds (0.02%) were virtually unchanged on the week, while the 2-Year Bond saw a minuscule fall by -0.04%.

The US Treasury Bond was down by -0.14%, the 5-Year Bond fell by -0.22%, and the 10-Year Note was lower by -0.36%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (88 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (17.8 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (78.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (32.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (42.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (39.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (88.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (81.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (83.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (79.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (23.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (33.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (42.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-31.9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-31.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (34.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (11.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (12.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (0.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-10.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -100,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	59.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	62.9	1.5
– Net Position:	59,440	-83,088	23,648
– Gross Longs:	494,204	1,268,848	55,093
– Gross Shorts:	434,764	1,351,936	31,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	33.1	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	29.6	22.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -524,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -179,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	56.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-524,612	522,562	2,050
– Gross Longs:	1,807,449	7,187,932	21,089
– Gross Shorts:	2,332,061	6,665,370	19,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	66.6	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.5	1.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -273,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -309,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	71.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	52.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-273,183	272,850	333
– Gross Longs:	251,944	1,033,988	546
– Gross Shorts:	525,127	761,138	213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	69.8	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-12.0	0.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,304,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,346,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	76.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	49.8	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,304,880	1,176,303	128,577
– Gross Longs:	659,942	3,402,936	245,623
– Gross Shorts:	1,964,822	2,226,633	117,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	82.2	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-1.8	7.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,269,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 43,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	51.7	4.5
– Net Position:	-2,269,120	2,126,524	142,596
– Gross Longs:	515,461	5,601,486	445,017
– Gross Shorts:	2,784,581	3,474,962	302,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.4	80.9	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-8.4	-5.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -870,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -915,552 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	76.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	63.0	6.1
– Net Position:	-870,505	785,650	84,855
– Gross Longs:	713,272	4,383,326	432,679
– Gross Shorts:	1,583,777	3,597,676	347,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	71.2	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	26.5	-18.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -249,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	66.7	12.1
– Net Position:	-249,202	330,563	-81,361
– Gross Longs:	275,338	2,057,956	231,470
– Gross Shorts:	524,540	1,727,393	312,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	62.8	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-27.1	-25.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	75.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	82.3	7.3
– Net Position:	13,835	-123,423	109,588
– Gross Longs:	170,410	1,370,974	241,908
– Gross Shorts:	156,575	1,494,397	132,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	8.1	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-1.2	-25.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -235,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -245,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	72.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-235,097	228,601	6,496
– Gross Longs:	146,941	1,761,337	182,270
– Gross Shorts:	382,038	1,532,736	175,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	29.7	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-5.8	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.