InvestMacro

Large Currency Speculators trimmed Euro bullish bets after run to 100-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (20,796 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,267 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,277 contracts), the US Dollar Index (820 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (573 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (524 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-16,247 contracts) with the British Pound (-9,414 contracts), Japanese Yen (-9,134 contracts), Mexican Peso (-4,650 contracts) and Bitcoin (-304 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is this week’s breather in the highly bullish Euro currency speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Euro dropped this week by the most in the past twenty-four weeks. This week’s shortfall, however, follows a strong bullish run that had seen positions rise in fourteen out of the previous seventeen weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a new 100-week high last week at a total of +146,621 contracts and the highest since January of 2021. Despite this week’s decline, the Euro positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past ten weeks which marks the best run since 2021.

The Euro price has been in an uptrend since bottoming in September and has shot higher against the US Dollar since US inflationary data has started to cool. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate closed just below the 1.0700 level this week after having been right at parity (1.0000) as recently as November 22nd.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,850	49	17,761	55	-20,204	44	2,443	43
EUR	712,030	74	129,915	75	-174,081	27	44,166	49
GBP	205,722	40	-20,301	52	29,692	54	-9,391	40
JPY	172,590	33	-46,864	40	46,773	58	91	54
CHF	33,250	12	-2,854	47	6,431	56	-3,577	45
CAD	138,995	23	-26,766	10	24,541	89	2,225	35
AUD	132,960	32	-36,267	51	39,595	48	-3,328	44
NZD	29,773	6	7,480	74	-8,170	27	690	60
MXN	245,029	70	-56,376	3	50,262	94	6,114	94
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	37,987	24	28,211	76	-29,648	24	1,437	78
Bitcoin	14,530	74	389	84	-578	0	189	17

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (84 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (75 percent), New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) and the US Dollar Index (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (40 percent) and the Swiss Franc (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.2 percent)
EuroFX (74.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (59.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (40.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (51.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (50.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (72.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (5.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.9 percent)
Bitcoin (83.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.0 percent)

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the British Pound (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and Bitcoin (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-10.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.5 percent)
EuroFX (2.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-51.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (2.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.3	3.8	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	52.1	7.4
– Net Position:	17,761	-20,204	2,443
– Gross Longs:	33,171	1,588	5,538
– Gross Shorts:	15,410	21,792	3,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	43.7	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	12.3	-15.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 129,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.8	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	79.2	5.8
– Net Position:	129,915	-174,081	44,166
– Gross Longs:	222,543	389,861	85,209
– Gross Shorts:	92,628	563,942	41,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.6	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-4.6	14.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	65.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	51.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-20,301	29,692	-9,391
– Gross Longs:	43,625	135,314	22,168
– Gross Shorts:	63,926	105,622	31,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	54.3	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-14.8	12.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -46,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	68.3	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	41.2	15.7
– Net Position:	-46,864	46,773	91
– Gross Longs:	25,377	117,959	27,267
– Gross Shorts:	72,241	71,186	27,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	58.5	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-15.3	27.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	48.9	31.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	29.6	41.8
– Net Position:	-2,854	6,431	-3,577
– Gross Longs:	6,632	16,274	10,322
– Gross Shorts:	9,486	9,843	13,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	55.6	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-21.1	3.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	55.8	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	38.2	21.3
– Net Position:	-26,766	24,541	2,225
– Gross Longs:	25,497	77,624	31,870
– Gross Shorts:	52,263	53,083	29,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	89.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	9.9	6.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	56.2	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	26.4	15.9
– Net Position:	-36,267	39,595	-3,328
– Gross Longs:	35,208	74,724	17,847
– Gross Shorts:	71,475	35,129	21,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	48.4	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-7.8	9.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	41.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	69.0	10.6
– Net Position:	7,480	-8,170	690
– Gross Longs:	13,366	12,378	3,842
– Gross Shorts:	5,886	20,548	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	27.2	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.2	16.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	43.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	22.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-56,376	50,262	6,114
– Gross Longs:	131,201	105,401	8,078
– Gross Shorts:	187,577	55,139	1,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	93.8	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.0	50.2	-3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.5	7.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	85.4	4.4
– Net Position:	28,211	-29,648	1,437
– Gross Longs:	32,105	2,779	3,096
– Gross Shorts:	3,894	32,427	1,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	24.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-20.4	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	0.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	4.5	6.3
– Net Position:	389	-578	189
– Gross Longs:	11,747	73	1,103
– Gross Shorts:	11,358	651	914
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	36.4	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	21.0	-2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Ultra 10-Year Bonds lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 27.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 156,568 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,695 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 91.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a small gain of 2.2 this week. The speculator position registered -4,301 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -980 contracts in speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bitcoin speculator level resides at a 83.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -5.5 this week. The speculator position was 389 net contracts this week with a change of -304 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 76.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 20.9 this week. The speculator position was 28,211 net contracts this week with a rise by 20,796 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 75.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.9 this week. The speculator position was 1,362 net contracts this week with a small gain of 190 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.1 this week. The speculator position was -113,357 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -30,091 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -51.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -56,376 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,650 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.6 this week. The speculator position was 227,607 net contracts this week with a drop by -20,011 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -652,919 net contracts this week with a small rise by 2,609 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Wheat

Finally, the Wheat speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 7.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.7 this week. The speculator position was -32,291 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,998 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Jan

Metals Speculators push their Platinum bullish bets to 91-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (5,837 contracts) with Gold (4,786 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,399 contracts), Palladium (-336 contracts) and Silver (-93 contracts) registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued gains in bets for the Platinum positions. The large speculator position in Platinum futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Over the past fourteen weeks, Platinum bets have been higher in twelve of those weeks. The speculator position (sitting at +30,503 contracts) has now risen to the most bullish level since April 6th of 2021, a span of 91 weeks.

Platinum prices have been moving higher since hitting a multi-year low in early September as well. Since falling to a low just beneath $800 on September 1st, Platinum futures have been in a strong uptrend and closed this week above the $1100 price level for an almost 40 percent rise (since Sept. 1st) and the highest weekly close since March 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	449,393	7	141,666	30	-159,974	70	18,308	26
Silver	131,990	9	30,934	48	-44,211	53	13,277	37
Copper	164,594	13	-4,675	33	-163	67	4,838	53
Palladium	8,456	12	-2,542	10	2,422	87	120	49
Platinum	69,687	38	30,503	50	-33,157	54	2,654	4

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Platinum (50 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (48 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (29.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (28.1 percent)
Silver (48.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.3 percent)
Copper (32.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (36.9 percent)
Platinum (50.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (42.3 percent)
Palladium (9.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.0 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.5 percent)
Silver (15.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.8 percent)
Copper (-6.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.2 percent)
Platinum (10.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 141,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.4	25.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	60.9	5.3
– Net Position:	141,666	-159,974	18,308
– Gross Longs:	230,801	113,520	42,337
– Gross Shorts:	89,135	273,494	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	69.8	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-9.2	11.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -93 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	33.5	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	67.0	7.8
– Net Position:	30,934	-44,211	13,277
– Gross Longs:	57,801	44,229	23,576
– Gross Shorts:	26,867	88,440	10,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	53.5	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.7	12.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,675 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	41.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	42.0	7.4
– Net Position:	-4,675	-163	4,838
– Gross Longs:	57,191	68,905	17,079
– Gross Shorts:	61,866	69,068	12,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	66.9	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	4.6	10.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.6	26.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	74.5	6.1
– Net Position:	30,503	-33,157	2,654
– Gross Longs:	41,555	18,734	6,879
– Gross Shorts:	11,052	51,891	4,225
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	54.2	3.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.1	-31.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	55.6	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	26.9	13.6
– Net Position:	-2,542	2,422	120
– Gross Longs:	2,120	4,700	1,270
– Gross Shorts:	4,662	2,278	1,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	86.8	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	7.8	11.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

07 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators increased their 2-Year Bond & Eurodollar bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bond & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (29,137 contracts) with the Eurodollar (6,950 contracts), Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,009 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (2,609 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-39,393 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-30,091 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-18,194 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-14,154 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	6,012,543	1	-983,761	35	1,179,506	62	-195,745	61
FedFunds	1,306,518	30	-108,401	26	119,440	74	-11,039	32
2-Year	2,219,812	20	-521,508	10	524,938	90	-3,430	51
Long T-Bond	1,198,425	42	-169,258	30	142,676	61	26,582	74
10-Year	3,851,091	54	-383,602	14	467,443	77	-83,841	60
5-Year	4,213,262	63	-652,919	5	709,058	93	-56,139	66

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (36 percent) and the Eurodollar (35 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (30 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently followed by the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (14.1 percent). These markets are all in Extreme-Bearish territory with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (35.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (36.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (34.7 percent)
Eurodollar (35.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.9 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (16 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the Fed Funds (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-14.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-16.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-13.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (3.6 percent)
Eurodollar (15.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (18.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -983,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -990,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	69.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	49.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-983,761	1,179,506	-195,745
– Gross Longs:	497,428	4,154,503	307,951
– Gross Shorts:	1,481,189	2,974,997	503,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	62.2	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.5	18.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -108,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	79.1	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-108,401	119,440	-11,039
– Gross Longs:	97,128	1,033,784	32,892
– Gross Shorts:	205,529	914,344	43,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.4	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.9	-7.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -521,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -550,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	81.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	57.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-521,508	524,938	-3,430
– Gross Longs:	178,437	1,801,839	192,701
– Gross Shorts:	699,945	1,276,901	196,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	90.1	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-9.0	6.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -652,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -655,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	67.5	8.9
– Net Position:	-652,919	709,058	-56,139
– Gross Longs:	290,221	3,553,482	317,117
– Gross Shorts:	943,140	2,844,424	373,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	92.7	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	12.3	5.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -383,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -39,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -344,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	78.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	65.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-383,602	467,443	-83,841
– Gross Longs:	405,781	3,003,300	343,068
– Gross Shorts:	789,383	2,535,857	426,909
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	77.4	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	12.3	-9.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -113,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -30,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	78.5	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	64.1	17.4
– Net Position:	-113,357	205,988	-92,631
– Gross Longs:	137,564	1,117,231	154,908
– Gross Shorts:	250,921	911,243	247,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.1	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.5	-1.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -169,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	80.3	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	68.4	12.0
– Net Position:	-169,258	142,676	26,582
– Gross Longs:	54,314	962,504	170,139
– Gross Shorts:	223,572	819,828	143,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	61.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	34.7	-14.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -364,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.4	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	60.8	8.5
– Net Position:	-364,894	319,175	45,719
– Gross Longs:	65,262	1,180,797	166,521
– Gross Shorts:	430,156	861,622	120,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	68.9	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-2.2	-6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Jan

Weekly COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (32,399 contracts) with Soybeans (15,120 contracts), Soybean Meal (9,695 contracts), Wheat (3,998 contracts), Live Cattle (3,288 contracts), Coffee (1,892 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,376 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-17,938 contracts), Cocoa (-3,065 contracts), Cotton (-3,250 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,087 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,459,936	6	227,607	4	-249,040	97	21,433	35
Gold	449,393	7	141,666	30	-159,974	70	18,308	26
Silver	131,990	9	30,934	48	-44,211	53	13,277	37
Copper	164,594	13	-4,675	33	-163	67	4,838	53
Palladium	8,456	12	-2,542	10	2,422	87	120	49
Platinum	69,687	38	30,503	50	-33,157	54	2,654	4
Natural Gas	1,031,182	15	-169,813	28	142,142	76	27,671	46
Brent	139,687	4	-26,514	61	23,081	36	3,433	56
Heating Oil	252,205	17	16,613	67	-34,031	35	17,418	59
Soybeans	603,609	7	148,639	57	-111,329	55	-37,310	8
Corn	1,221,434	4	267,532	64	-217,117	41	-50,415	16
Coffee	187,767	3	-812	18	-641	83	1,453	20
Sugar	940,021	45	228,492	72	-273,497	25	45,005	63
Wheat	331,577	19	-32,291	7	37,636	94	-5,345	83

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent), Corn (64 percent) and Soybeans (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (7 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Cotton (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Cocoa (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (60.1 percent)
Sugar (72.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.5 percent)
Soybeans (57.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (51.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.3 percent)
Live Cattle (67.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (37.4 percent)
Cotton (19.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.3 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.4 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.9 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (27 percent) and Soybeans (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (19 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Sugar (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-5 percent) and Cotton (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.3 percent)
Sugar (13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.0 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.2 percent)
Soybeans (25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-19.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-24.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (18.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.3 percent)
Cocoa (12.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.0 percent)
Wheat (-4.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 267,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	44.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	62.1	13.7
– Net Position:	267,532	-217,117	-50,415
– Gross Longs:	359,493	541,890	117,043
– Gross Shorts:	91,961	759,007	167,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	41.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-0.2	-11.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 228,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	40.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	69.6	5.2
– Net Position:	228,492	-273,497	45,005
– Gross Longs:	325,685	381,086	93,920
– Gross Shorts:	97,193	654,583	48,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	24.7	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-10.7	-3.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	51.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	51.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-812	-641	1,453
– Gross Longs:	46,411	96,423	9,429
– Gross Shorts:	47,223	97,064	7,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	83.1	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-16.9	0.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 148,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	47.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	65.5	13.2
– Net Position:	148,639	-111,329	-37,310
– Gross Longs:	195,320	284,335	42,635
– Gross Shorts:	46,681	395,664	79,945
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	54.6	7.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-21.7	-19.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	47.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	69.2	6.0
– Net Position:	70,690	-80,697	10,007
– Gross Longs:	99,018	178,653	32,575
– Gross Shorts:	28,328	259,350	22,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	49.5	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.2	-6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 156,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	78.4	5.6
– Net Position:	156,568	-175,970	19,402
– Gross Longs:	170,218	141,313	42,222
– Gross Shorts:	13,650	317,283	22,820
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-26.2	-4.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.8	29.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	48.3	11.3
– Net Position:	70,489	-63,397	-7,092
– Gross Longs:	129,128	97,353	30,372
– Gross Shorts:	58,639	160,750	37,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	26.5	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-14.7	-16.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	36.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.9	14.0
– Net Position:	43,626	-31,671	-11,955
– Gross Longs:	73,833	68,295	14,524
– Gross Shorts:	30,207	99,966	26,479
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	58.6	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.1	-4.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	50.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	59.1	6.0
– Net Position:	16,459	-17,685	1,226
– Gross Longs:	59,178	99,292	13,198
– Gross Shorts:	42,719	116,977	11,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	80.6	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.8	0.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	43.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	54.9	3.2
– Net Position:	27,838	-31,978	4,140
– Gross Longs:	87,974	121,844	12,987
– Gross Shorts:	60,136	153,822	8,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	55.8	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-13.1	7.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	42.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	31.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-32,291	37,636	-5,345
– Gross Longs:	84,689	141,962	30,370
– Gross Shorts:	116,980	104,326	35,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	93.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	8.3	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Jan

Weekly COT Stock Market Speculator bets led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rdand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as all of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (6,980 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6,738 contracts), Russell-Mini (4,563 contracts), Nikkei 225 (1,633 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (992 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (190 contracts), DowJones-Mini (154 contracts) and the VIX (415 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,010,996	2	-167,301	25	166,552	72	749	27
Nikkei 225	11,889	3	-2,974	63	2,892	44	82	29
Nasdaq-Mini	244,658	39	1,362	76	4,177	29	-5,539	42
DowJones-Mini	79,731	42	-11,891	25	16,039	79	-4,148	19
VIX	297,329	33	-68,000	67	75,329	35	-7,329	56
Nikkei 225 Yen	38,248	17	6,205	53	75	10	-6,280	68

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (76 percent) and the VIX (67 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (63 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (25 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (67.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (25.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (23.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (25.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (24.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (75.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (75.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (30.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (36.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4.5 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-3.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-2.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -68,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	56.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	31.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-68,000	75,329	-7,329
– Gross Longs:	56,713	168,326	18,988
– Gross Shorts:	124,713	92,997	26,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	35.1	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	4.0	-6.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	73.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	65.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-167,301	166,552	749
– Gross Longs:	261,260	1,474,811	232,853
– Gross Shorts:	428,561	1,308,259	232,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	72.4	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.9	0.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	51.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	31.2	19.7
– Net Position:	-11,891	16,039	-4,148
– Gross Longs:	25,248	40,900	11,541
– Gross Shorts:	37,139	24,861	15,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	79.2	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	2.7	18.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	59.6	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	57.9	16.4
– Net Position:	1,362	4,177	-5,539
– Gross Longs:	59,802	145,713	34,484
– Gross Shorts:	58,440	141,536	40,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	29.1	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	0.5	1.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	83.6	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.6	5.0
– Net Position:	-65,361	65,079	282
– Gross Longs:	43,799	363,125	21,973
– Gross Shorts:	109,160	298,046	21,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	69.4	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	3.0	-16.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	52.5	25.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	28.2	24.9
– Net Position:	-2,974	2,892	82
– Gross Longs:	2,609	6,242	3,038
– Gross Shorts:	5,583	3,350	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	44.1	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	5.3	-0.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	91.7	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	91.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-5,996	-9	6,005
– Gross Longs:	16,843	320,467	10,720
– Gross Shorts:	22,839	320,476	4,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	60.4	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-28.8	16.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

06 Jan

Mining Project Could Be Carbon Net Zero

Source: Adam Schatzker (1/5/23)

Such a scenario is possible for this nickel-cobalt asset thanks to its owner’s carbon sequestering process, noted a Research Capital Corp. report.

Improvements to Canada Nickel Co. Inc.’s (CNIKF:OTCMKTS;CNC:TSX.V) proprietary in-process tailings (IPT) carbonation process are “impressive” on a laboratory scale and, thus, bode well for the explorer’s Crawford nickel-cobalt project in Ontario’s Timmins mining camp, reported Research Capital Corp. analyst Adam Schatzker in a Jan. 4 research note.

“If the testing by Canada Nickel is proven,” Schatzker wrote, “the Crawford project could become a major critical minerals producer while being net zero carbon or perhaps sequestering far more carbon than the project produces.”

Testing of the IPT process revealed two significant findings, noted Schatzker. One, the methodology can be applied to the Toronto-based company’s existing process stream to capture and store carbon dioxide (CO2) at an accelerated rate.

“In the near term, we think Canada Nickel will likely announce some form of financing (likely strategic) that will allow the company to eliminate the debt on its balance sheet,” wrote Schatzker.

Two, in the lab, the IPT process can capture a maximum of 37 tons of CO2 per ton of nickel produced. The amount to be captured routinely, however, is likely to be lower, and the nadir is not yet known, Schatzker wrote.

Regardless, extrapolating this result to the much larger scale of the Crawford project suggests the process would sequester a “very significant amount of CO2,” noted Schatzker, more than enough for Crawford to achieve carbon net-zero status, noted Schatzker. The feasibility study of Crawford is now expected in Q2/23.

Ways To Improve the Project

Schatzker pointed out that by integrating the IPT process into Crawford, Canadian Nickel might qualify for and benefit from some type of governmental incentive. One possibility is Canada’s existing refundable investment tax credits that range from 37.5–60% between 2022 and 2030 and from 18.75–30% between 2031 and 2040. These specific credits, Schatzker noted, would greatly improve Crawford’s economics.

“In the near term, we think Canada Nickel will likely announce some form of financing (likely strategic) that will allow the company to eliminate the debt on its balance sheet,” wrote Schatzker.

Also, the analyst purported the IPT process would work best with “a point source of concentrated CO2,” generated through a vehicle such as a natural gas generating plant or a blue hydrogen project.

“This approach,” he added, “while broadening the scope of the overall project, may make it more attractive from a carbon/environmental, social, and governance perspective.”

Research Capital has a Speculative Buy rating and a CA$2.70 per share price target on Canada Nickel, the current share price of which is about CA$1.76.

Disclosures:
1) Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures For Research Capital Corp., Canada Nickel Company Inc., January 4, 2023

Analyst Certification: I, Adam Schatzker, certify the views expressed in this report were formed by my review of relevant company data and industry investigation, and accurately reflect my opinion about the investment merits of the securities mentioned in the report. I also certify that my compensation is not related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Research Capital Corporation publishes research and investment recommendations for the use of its clients. Information regarding our categories of recommendations, quarterly summaries of the percentage of our recommendations which fall into each category and our policies regarding the release of our research reports is available at www.researchcapital.com or may be requested by contacting the analyst. Each analyst of Research Capital Corporation whose name appears in this report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific conclusions or recommendations expressed in this research report.

General Disclosures: The opinions, estimates and projections contained in all Research Reports published by Research Capital Corporation (“RCC”) are those of RCC as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. RCC makes every effort to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and that contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete; RCC makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on its Research Reports or its contents.

Information may be available to RCC that is not contained therein. Research Reports disseminated by RCC are not a solicitation to buy or sell. All securities not available in all jurisdictions.

Company Specific Disclosures: Within the past 12 months, Research Capital has provided investment banking services to the issuer. The Analyst currently owns or is short shares of the issuer, which represents less than 1% of shares outstanding.

Potential Conflicts of Interest: All Research Capital Corporation (“RCC”) Analysts are compensated based in part on the overall revenues of RCC, a portion of which are generated by investment banking activities. RCC may have had, or seek to have, an investment banking relationship with companies mentioned in this report. RCC and/or its officers, directors and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned in our Research Reports as principal or agent. RCC makes every effort possible to avoid conflicts of interest, however readers should assume that a conflict might exist, and therefore not rely solely on this report when evaluating whether or not to buy or sell the securities of subject companies.

RCC USA: Information about Research Capital Corporation’s Rating System, the distribution of our research to clients and the percentage of recommendations which are in each of our rating categories is available on our website at www.researchcapital.ca. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does Research Capital Corporation assume any responsibility or liability. Research Capital Corporation, its directors, officers and other employees may, from time to time, have positions in the securities mentioned herein. Contents of this report cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission of Research Capital Corporation. US Institutional Clients – Research Capital USA Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Research Capital Corporation, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report subject to the terms and limitations set out above. US firms or institutions receiving this report should effect transactions in securities discussed in the report through Research Capital USA Inc., a Broker – Dealer registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

Financial News Metals

06 Jan

Biopharma Co.’s Burn Tissue Removal Product Approved

Source: Swayampakula Ramakanth (1/4/23)

Because of the green light from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, H.C. Wainwright & Co. raised its target price on the developer of this drug, according to a recent report.

Vericel Corp.’s (VCEL:NASDAQ) NexoBrid, a product that removes nonviable burn tissue, was recently approved and given a wider label than expected by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), reported H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Dr. Swayampakula Ramakanth in a Jan. 3 research note. Vericel expects to commercially launch the drug in Q2/23.

“We expect management to provide additional details of the commercial launch in Q1/23 at an investor conference,” Ramakanth wrote.

On the news of the FDA approval, H.C. Wainwright increased its price target on Vericel to US$37 per share from US$35, the analyst pointed out. The biopharma is trading now at about $26.34 per share. The investment bank also reiterated its Buy rating on it.

Approved Uses

Ramakanth reported that NexoBrid is approved for adults with deep partial thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns.

Patients may apply it to these burns twice within a 24-hour period, first to an area of up to 15% of their body surface area and second to an area of up to 20% of their body surface area.

Milestone Payment Due

NexoBrid is the result of a collaboration between Vericel and MediWound, Ramakanth indicated. Now that the drug is FDA approved, Vericel owes MediWound a milestone payment of US$7.5 million ($7.5M), payable in this first quarter of 2023.

Rationale for a New Target

H.C. Wainwright derived its new price target on Vericel based on a few assumptions, Ramakanth noted. One is that Vericel will initially garner US$6,500 per patient per burn treatment.

Another is that the biopharma will start generating revenue from NexoBrid in Q3/23. The third is that Vericel’s revenue from NexoBrid in 2023 will be an estimated US$8.5M and, by year-end 2026, will be about US$31M.

6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

Disclosures For H.C.Wainwright & Co., MediWound Ltd., January 3, 2023

H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer. I, Swayampakula Ramakanth, Ph.D., Arthur He, Ph.D. and Sean Lee , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Vericel Corporation and MediWound Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of December 31, 2022 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Vericel Corporation and MediWound Ltd.

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Vericel Corporation for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. The Firm or its affiliates did receive compensation from MediWound Ltd. for investment banking services within twelve months before, and will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for MediWound Ltd. during the past 12 months.

The Firm does not make a market in Vericel Corporation and MediWound Ltd. as of the date of this research report. The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. This research report is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used to provide tax advice to any person.

H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC does not provide individually tailored investment advice in research reports. This research report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this research report.

H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC’s and its affiliates’ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding its analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research report.

The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or security discussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this research report: may lose value; are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.

Financial News Healthcare Stock Market News

06 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.06

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0602
Prev Close: 1.0521
% chg. over the last day: -0.77 %

Today, the US will publish an important Nonfarm Payroll report. Analysts forecast that the data will show a number of 200,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged. Such data may return strength to the dollar index, as a robust labor market gives the US Federal Reserve more room to act, including bringing the interest rate to the desired level in 2 meetings instead of 3. Conversely, a deterioration in labor market data, on the other hand, would indicate that the US Fed would act more softly, which is negative for the dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0514, 1.0528, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284
Resistance levels: 1.0574, 1.0589, 1.0650, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is trading below the moving averages but above the change of priority, which is a support level of 1.0514. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone but indicates a divergence, which limits the potential for further decline. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0514 on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0574 or 1.0589, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0514 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2053
Prev Close: 1.1910
% chg. over the last day: -1.20 %

The US Federal Reserve said this week that it does not expect a rate cut this year. Considering the fact that the Bank of England has very limited room for maneuver because the economy is already in recession, the interest rate differential between the Bank of England and the US Fed will have a negative impact on the GBP/USD quotes in the medium term. But it should be noted that the market is pricing in future scenarios. The US Fed is halting rate hikes this year, and this pause may play into the hands of the British currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1893, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.1944, 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2166, 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is divergence in higher time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1893, but with confirmation. It is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.2000, but it is also better with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2100 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 132.55
Prev Close: 133.41
% chg. over the last day: +0.65 %

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued unscheduled bond purchases for the fourth straight day as Governor Kuroda confirmed that the Central Bank would continue monetary policy easing to achieve its sustainable price target. The prevailing view among investors is that the BoJ will raise its yield cap even higher or get rid of it altogether if inflation continues to rise in Japan. This situation does not play in favor of the Japanese yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 133,45, 132.92, 132.05, 130.58, 129.65
Resistance levels: 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY has changed to bullish. The price is now trading above the moving averages, while the MACD indicator has become positive, indicating buying pressure inside the day. But the divergence indicates that the upside potential is already limited. Buy trades are best considered after a slight correction to support levels of 133.45 or 132.92, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the level of resistance 134.45, provided that there is a reverse reaction or a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below the support level of 132.92, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3477
Prev Close: 1.3568
% chg. over the last day: +0.67 %

The fall in oil prices stopped on Thursday, but it was not enough to give optimism to the Canadian dollar as the dollar index rose significantly ahead of the Nonfarm report. Investors are returning to the dollar, with the expectation that the US labor market remains solid, and this will allow the US Federal Reserve to be more decisive in future meetings.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3561, 1.3513, 1.3439, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3604, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is still bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages again. The MACD indicator has returned to positive territory, and buying prevails during the day. Buy trades should be considered from the support at 1.3561 or 1.3513, but with confirmation. Sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3604, but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower timeframes or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3513, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jan

Week Ahead: Can US Dollar fend off “death cross”?

By ForexTime

The US inflation outlook, and how it’ll impact the Fed’s plans for raising US interest rates, is set to come into sharpened focus over the coming week which also features these major data releases and events:

Monday, January 9

EUR: Eurozone November unemployment; Germany November industrial production
GBP: BOE’s Huw Pill speech
USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Tuesday, January 10

GBPUSD: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey
World Bank set to release global economic prospects report

Wednesday, January 11

AUD: Australia November inflation and retail sales

Thursday, January 12

AUD: Australia November external trade
CNH: China December CPI and PPI
USD: US December CPI; weekly initial jobless claims
USD: Fed speak – Speeches by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin

Friday, January 13

CNH: China December external trade
GBP: UK November GDP, industrial production, trade balance
EUR: Eurozone November industrial production
USD: US January consumer sentiment
S&P 500: US earnings season kicks off

This time last week, we contemplated whether the US dollar would falter at the onset of 2023.

So far in this first trading week of the year, the equally-weighted USD Index has held up pretty well, even testing the key 200-day SMA / 50% Fibonacci resistance levels that we pointed out in our previous Week Ahead article (published Dec 30th):

Still, to be fair, this article is being published before this first week of 2023 is over.

We’ve still got the marquee US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) due in just a few hours today (Friday, January 6th).

Even as we wait for the pivotal US jobs report, the astute investor and trader would already be keeping an eye on the coming week.

And looking at the charts, one can’t help but notice that the USD Index appears headed for a “death cross”.

What is a “death cross”?

The death cross occurs when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below its 200-day counterpart.

Investors and traders take such an event as confirmation of the downtrend for that particular asset’s prices.

This technical event is widely viewed as a “bearish” sign, suggesting that prices would decline further after the “death cross”.

For example, the last time this USD Index witnessed a “death cross” was back in July 2020.

After such a bearish technical event, this index then fell by a further 9.7%, before reaching bottom at 1.04399 in February 2021.

What could push the USD Index closer to a death cross?

If the US inflation data due on January 12th comes in lower than expected, that should drag the dollar even lower.

Markets are currently expecting the December consumer price index (CPI) – which measures headline inflation – to register a 6.6% advance compared to December 2021.

If so, that 6.6% would be significantly lower from the 40-year high of 9.1% that was registered back in June 2022, though still three times higher than the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Recall the reason for these Fed rate hikes = it’s to subdue US inflation.

Also, recall how the buck has been reacting to market expectations surrounding US interest rates:

For the first 3 quarters of 2022, the US dollar drew tremendous strength from the notion that the Fed will send rates even higher, which the central bank did.
The US dollar then faltered since October as markets begin to believe that the Fed is close to being done with its aggressive rate hikes.
Adding to the dollar’s weakness in recent months is the idea that the Fed may even have to cut interest rates later in 2023 in order to offset the risk of dragging the world’s largest economy into a recession.

Potential scenarios for USD Index in response to CPI release:

1) Dollar down: If markets are given further evidence that US inflation is further subsiding, that should give the Fed less of a need to send interest rates much higher.

Such hopes may drag the USD Index back lower to the 1.170 region, and potentially see this USD Index form a death cross.

2) Dollar up: If next week’s US inflation print exceeds the market forecasts of 6.6%, that implies that the Fed has more to do to combat stubborn inflation.

Such a hawkish narrative may well send this USD Index upwards to test its 50-day SMA (around 1.20) as the immediate resistance level, while perhaps delaying the formation of a “death cross” for a while longer.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

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