InvestMacro

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Weekly Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (29,884 contracts) with WTI Crude (18,190 contracts), Gasoline (8,433 contracts), Heating Oil (7,791 contracts) and Brent Oil (402 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index with a drop by -294 contracts on the week.

Energy Markets Price Performance led by Natural Gas

The energy markets this week were all higher in price performance and led by Natural Gas, which rose by approximately 21%. Heating Oil was next up with a 9.14% gain in the past five days, followed by WTI Crude Oil which rose by 7.53%, and then Brent Oil which rose by 7.36%. Gasoline was higher by 4.61% on the week and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 1.83% rise on the week.

All these markets are higher over the past 30 days, with Natural Gas up by approximately 40%, followed by Heating Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Brent Oil all seeing gains by more than 20% in the past 30 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Index (78.3 percent) and Heating Oil (74.9 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (18.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Natural Gas (20.9 percent) and Brent Oil (21.6 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (18.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (21.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (21.1 percent)
Natural Gas (20.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (0.0 percent)
Gasoline (74.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (65.3 percent)
Heating Oil (74.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (64.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (79.7 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (72.1 percent) and WTI Crude (13.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-14.9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (13.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (6.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-14.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-13.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-60.9 percent)
Gasoline (3.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-24.1 percent)
Heating Oil (11.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (72.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (74.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 96,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	41.3	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	47.0	2.5
– Net Position:	96,982	-115,048	18,066
– Gross Longs:	295,247	840,875	68,113
– Gross Shorts:	198,265	955,923	50,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	81.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-13.0	0.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	37.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	22.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-41,748	40,026	1,722
– Gross Longs:	57,294	100,693	7,911
– Gross Shorts:	99,042	60,667	6,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	80.5	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	16.7	-4.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 29,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	37.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	27.6	2.5
– Net Position:	-163,606	152,767	10,839
– Gross Longs:	216,112	601,095	51,823
– Gross Shorts:	379,718	448,328	40,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	80.3	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	24.8	-3.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	47.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.7	3.8
– Net Position:	79,213	-86,834	7,621
– Gross Longs:	118,536	218,244	25,419
– Gross Shorts:	39,323	305,078	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	25.0	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.2	1.7

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	46.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	57.0	7.3
– Net Position:	23,835	-41,663	17,828
– Gross Longs:	67,848	175,380	45,533
– Gross Shorts:	44,013	217,043	27,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.9	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-5.1	-8.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	70.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	67.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-6,075	5,405	670
– Gross Longs:	50,840	132,086	705
– Gross Shorts:	56,915	126,681	35
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	20.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.1	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.1	-73.5	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

01 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (36,733 contracts) with Corn (20,033 contracts), Soybean Meal (14,496 contracts), Wheat (14,340 contracts), Sugar (10,595 contracts), Lean Hogs (9,539 contracts), Coffee (2,971 contracts) and Cocoa (2,372 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-13,143 contracts), Soybeans (-698 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-371 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Live Cattle lead price performance this week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led by Live Cattle, which rose by 1.34 percent, followed by Wheat, which increased by 1.06 percent in the last five days. Corn was the only other market that saw a rise with a 0.34 percent gain.

On the downside, Coffee led the decreases on the week with a -5.58 percent decline, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by -3.35 percent, and Sugar, which also fell a similar -3.25 percent. Cotton saw a shortfall of -1.36 percent while Soybean Oil (-0.95%), Lean Hogs (-0.90%), and Cocoa (-0.86%) all fell by just under one percent. Soybeans were virtually unchanged with a -0.13 percent decline on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (73 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (66 percent), Soybeans (56 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (2 percent), Sugar (7 percent) and Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.2 percent)
Sugar (6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (24.3 percent)
Live Cattle (65.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (66.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (66.3 percent)
Cotton (15.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.7 percent)
Cocoa (2.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (34.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (43 percent) and Lean Hogs (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (13 percent) and Coffee (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cocoa (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.2 percent)
Sugar (-2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.9 percent)
Coffee (2.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.0 percent)
Soybeans (-30.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-35.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-8.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-18.6 percent)
Live Cattle (12.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (-16.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.3 percent)
Wheat (-25.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-57.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	45.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	42.3	9.5
– Net Position:	-31,671	52,691	-21,020
– Gross Longs:	341,576	774,514	140,713
– Gross Shorts:	373,247	721,823	161,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	65.2	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	6.5	3.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	56.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	38.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-167,753	176,753	-9,000
– Gross Longs:	153,423	565,901	76,260
– Gross Shorts:	321,176	389,148	85,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	94.2	8.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	-0.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	40.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	59.8	3.6
– Net Position:	32,734	-34,082	1,348
– Gross Longs:	57,118	70,487	7,625
– Gross Shorts:	24,384	104,569	6,277
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.2	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-3.3	9.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	51.7	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	56.0	8.5
– Net Position:	57,431	-37,074	-20,357
– Gross Longs:	167,074	444,216	52,360
– Gross Shorts:	109,643	481,290	72,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	44.1	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.0	31.6	-7.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	46.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	53.8	4.4
– Net Position:	41,276	-45,616	4,340
– Gross Longs:	139,537	310,531	33,483
– Gross Shorts:	98,261	356,147	29,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	35.1	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.7	-43.2	32.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	51.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	52.5	5.5
– Net Position:	-8,294	-8,069	16,363
– Gross Longs:	115,053	271,984	45,638
– Gross Shorts:	123,347	280,053	29,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	72.2	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.9	11.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 88,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	32.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	56.2	12.2
– Net Position:	88,978	-77,526	-11,452
– Gross Longs:	147,788	109,330	29,206
– Gross Shorts:	58,810	186,856	40,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	27.8	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-17.4	4.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	31.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	47.9	8.9
– Net Position:	65,936	-57,624	-8,312
– Gross Longs:	149,861	113,367	23,425
– Gross Shorts:	83,925	170,991	31,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.2	29.9	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.1	-23.6	-15.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	48.9	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	38.2	3.8
– Net Position:	-38,967	38,648	319
– Gross Longs:	96,472	177,241	14,078
– Gross Shorts:	135,439	138,593	13,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	83.6	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.9	14.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -15,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	48.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	37.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-15,502	16,293	-791
– Gross Longs:	27,452	72,066	9,984
– Gross Shorts:	42,954	55,773	10,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	97.8	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	14.0	19.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	36.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	22.1	5.7
– Net Position:	-79,390	77,363	2,027
– Gross Longs:	119,821	195,721	32,444
– Gross Shorts:	199,211	118,358	30,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.1	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.9	24.8	24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

30 Jan

Week Ahead: Not every glitter is gold…

By ForexTime

Silver ↑ 40% since start of 2025
83% correlation with gold over past 2 years
Supported by industrial demand, ETFs and weaker USD
Over past year US NFP triggered moves of ↑ 1.5% & ↓ 2.0%
Bloomberg FX model – 70% – ($100.22 – $131.27)

Precious metals are taking a beating as the dollar strengthens on reports that Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair.

Nevertheless, Silver remains the champion in the commodity space, gaining 400% year-to-date versus golds 17% return.

Note: Although gold/silver crashed yesterday, most losses have been clawed back with bulls greedily eyeing fresh records.

Precious metals have been boosted by geopolitical risk, speculative demand from Chinese investors, ETF inflows and a broadly weaker dollar.

But silver is also drawing strength from rising industrial demand in the face of supply deficits.

These solid fundamental forces point to further gains for silver which has moved in tandem with gold 83% of the time in any given 5-day period over the past 2 years.

Before we cover themes that could impact silver, here is a list of events for the week ahead:

Sunday, 1st February

OIL: OPEC+ ministers meeting

Monday, 2nd February

CNY: China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
EUR: Germany Retail Sales (Dec)
GBP: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI, Nationwide house prices
USD: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan); ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)

Tuesday, 3rd February

AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision
FRA40: France Inflation Rate (Jan)
MXN: Mexico Business Confidence (Jan)
USD: JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
WTI/Brent: US API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Jan 30)

Wednesday, 4th February

CNY: China RatingDog Services PMI (Jan)
EUR: Eurozone Inflation Rate (Jan)
USD: US ISM Services PMI (Jan); ADP Employment Change (Jan)
WTI/Brent: US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Jan 30); EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (w/e Jan 30)
NAS100: Alphabet earnings, US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday, 5th February

AUD: Balance of Trade (Dec)
GBP: BoE Interest Rate Decision; MPC Meeting Minutes; UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan)
EUR: ECB Interest Rate Decision
MXN: BoM Interest Rate Decision
US500: Amazon earnings

Friday, 6th February

EUR: Germany Balance of Trade (Dec); Germany Industrial Production (Dec); France Balance of Trade (Dec)
CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan); Canada Ivey PMI s.a. (Jan)
USD: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan); Unemployment Rate (Jan); Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)

There are a couple of high-level themes that may shape the outlook for Silver as we enter February:

Note: President Donald Trump will announce his nominee for Federal Chair on Friday 30^th January.

According to Polymarket, there is an 83% chance that he will pick former Fed governor Kevin Warsh which is a long-term critic of ultra-loose monetary policy.

So, this raises questions about whether he will yield to Trump and cut rates or reassert policy discipline.

1) Geopolitical risk

In the latest developments, Trump has threatened to attack Iran while saying he will impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba. He has also threatened to decertify all aircrafts made in Canada and threatened 50% tariffs on those planes.

Mounting geopolitical tensions may accelerate the flight to safety, boosting safe-haven assets like Silver.

2) US January NFP report

The incoming NFP report could shape the metals outlook for February.

What are the market forecasts for the January NFP report?

78,000 jobs added in January (higher than the 50,000 added in December)
Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4%
Average hourly earnings to slip to 0.3% month-on-month
Average hourly earnings to slip 3.6% year-on-year (3.8% in January)

Traders are currently pricing a 15% probability of a 25bp Fed cut by March with this jumping to only 30% by April.

Silver prices could push higher if a soft NFP report weakens the dollar and supports the case for lower US rates.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report could weaken silver, especially if this results in a stronger dollar and reduced expectations over lower US rates.

3) Technical forces

Silver is aggressively bullish on the daily charts prices above the 21, 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well above 70 – indicating that prices are extremely overbought.

A solid breakout above $121.664 may open doors to fresh all-time highs at $125 and $131.27 – the upper bound of the Bloomberg FX model.
Sustained weakness below $112.50 may encourage a decline toward $106.72 and $100.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Jan

The US and European stock indices are under a sell-off

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices closed mixed on Thursday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.11%. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.72%. The primary pressure on the market came from a large-scale sell-off in tech stocks as investors began to reassess the valuation of AI-related companies amid a busy corporate earnings season. The hardest hit was the high-tech sector after Microsoft’s shares plummeted by 10%. The company reported a slowdown in cloud business growth alongside a sharp increase in capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, triggering a chain reaction of selling in the sector and putting heavy pressure on the Nasdaq. At the same time, individual corporate reports supported the market: Meta shares soared 10% due to a revenue prognoses that exceeded expectations, IBM added 5%, and Caterpillar rose by 3.5% following strong results.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weakened by 2.8%, dropping to $82,100 and hitting its lowest level since November 21, 2025. Market pressure was driven by several factors, the key one being a sustained capital outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. From January 20 to 26, ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $1.14 billion, marking the largest weekly decline in inflows since the beginning of January. The bulk of the redemptions came from major funds, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC, BlackRock’s IBIT, and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB, which collectively accounted for about 92% of all outflows. Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest Bitcoin ETF on the market, fell behind the same management company’s Gold ETF in terms of asset volume, highlighting a shift in investor interest toward more traditional safe-haven instruments.

Equity markets in Europe traded with no single trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 2.07%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.06%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.10%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher 0.17%. European stock markets ended Thursday’s session lower overall amid weak reports from several of the region’s largest companies.

In Sweden, the Riksbank’s key interest rate was left unchanged at 1.75% for the third consecutive time following the first monetary policy meeting of 2026, which was fully in line with market expectations. The central bank noted that the rate is likely to remain at its current level for some time while the regulator assesses the impact of measures already taken, which are expected to support a recovery in economic activity and stabilize inflation.

On Friday, WTI crude oil prices declined to around $64 per barrel; however, for the month as a whole, they continue to show their best performance since July 2023, supported by a rising geopolitical premium. Investors remain cautious amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump called on Tehran to return to negotiations regarding the nuclear program. The market is particularly focused on risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a strategically vital narrow route between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, through which a significant portion of global oil and LNG supplies passes daily. Any escalation in the region could lead to serious disruptions in global energy flows.

On Thursday, silver (XAG) dropped more than 6%, falling to around $110 per ounce, retreating from a record high of $120 amid active profit-taking by investors following a sharp price rally. Additional pressure on the market was exerted by ongoing geopolitical tensions: Iran stated it would “defend and respond as never before” to new threats from the US.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 0.03%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.51%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.07%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to around 0.604 USD, but for the month, it maintained steady growth supported by increasing expectations of monetary policy tightening. The momentum for the “kiwi” was set by a series of strong macroeconomic data, specifically an unexpected acceleration of inflation last week, which boosted market confidence that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may move to raise rates toward the end of the year. Against this backdrop, the currency rose to a seven-month high on Thursday. Additional support came from fresh data showing consumer confidence in January reached its highest level since August 2021, as well as a trade surplus increase that exceeded expectations.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,969.01 −9.02 (−0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,071.56 +55.96 (+0.11%)

DAX (DE40) 24,309.46 −513.33 (−2.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,171.76 +17.33 (+0.17%)

USD Index 96.20 −0.25% (−0.26%)

News feed for: 2026.01.30

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
Australia Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2). – USD (LOW)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Jan

EUR/USD Moves Away from High but Remains Strong

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD fell to 1.1919 on Friday. Despite this movement, the week ends with the US dollar experiencing its second consecutive decline. Pressure on the USD is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about economic policy in Washington, which is reducing investor confidence in the dollar.

The focus is on recent statements by US President Donald Trump. He threatened tariffs against countries supplying oil to Cuba and also warned Iran of possible military strikes if it refused to sign a nuclear agreement. An additional source of uncertainty was Trump’s promise to announce the candidacy of a new Fed chair on Friday morning, following sustained pressure on Jerome Powell to cut rates more aggressively.

In parallel, the White House and Senate Democrats reached a preliminary agreement that avoids a government shutdown. This partially reduced short-term fiscal risks.

Earlier in the week, the dollar fell to levels not seen in almost four years after Trump expressed no concern about its weakening. Later, the US currency was supported by statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who remains committed to a strong dollar policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed a wave of growth towards 1.2080. A repeated breakdown of this resistance level may signal a continuation of the uptrend. At this stage, the pair is continuing the correction wave towards the support level of 1.1875. Technically, the correction scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its histogram and signal line both above zero, forming a downward wave. Upon completion of the correction, we anticipate the uptrend continuing towards 1.2045 and subsequently to 1.2200, with possible corrections along the way.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a correction after testing the resistance level. A rebound from the support level of 1.1860 would signal the formation of a new growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator’s signal lines are pointing towards level 80, suggesting the uptrend may continue. Subsequently, the target for growth may be 1.2045.

Conclusion

In summary, while the EUR/USD pair has experienced a corrective pullback, the fundamental backdrop of geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continues to weigh on the US dollar, underpinning the euro’s relative strength. Technically, the correction appears poised to complete near key support levels, with indicators on both the H4 and H1 timeframes suggesting a high probability of resuming the prevailing upward trend. The overall bias remains bullish for a potential test of higher resistance zones.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Jan

Americans want heat pumps – but high electricity prices may get in the way

By Roxana Shafiee, Harvard University; Harvard Kennedy School

Heat pumps can reduce carbon emissions associated with heating buildings, and many states have set aggressive targets to increase their use in the coming decades. But while heat pumps are often cheaper choices for new buildings, getting homeowners to install them in existing homes isn’t so easy.

Current energy prices, including the rising cost of electricity, mean that homeowners may experience higher heating bills by replacing their current heating systems with heat pumps – at least in some regions of the country.

Heat pumps, which use electricity to move heat from the outside in, are used in only 14% of U.S. households. They are common primarily in warm southern states such as Florida where winter heating needs are relatively low. In the Northeast, where winters are colder and longer, only about 5% of households use a heat pump.

In our new study, my co-author Dan Schrag and I examined how heat pump adoption would change annual heating bills for the average-size household in each county across the U.S. We wanted to understand where heat pumps may already be cost-effective and where other factors may be preventing households from making the switch.

Wide variation in home heating

Across the U.S., people heat their homes with a range of fuels, mainly because of differences in climate, pricing and infrastructure. In colder regions – northern states and states across the Rocky Mountains – most people use natural gas or propane to provide reliable winter heating. In California, most households also use natural gas for heating.

In warmer, southern states, including Florida and Texas, where electricity prices are cheaper, most households use electricity for heating – either in electric furnaces, baseboard resistance heating or to run heat pumps. In the Pacific northwest, where electricity prices are low due to abundant hydropower, electricity is also a dominant heating fuel.

The type of community also affects homes’ fuel choices. Homes in cities are more likely to use natural gas relative to rural areas, where natural gas distribution networks are not as well developed. In rural areas, homes are more likely to use heating oil and propane, which can be stored on property in tanks. Oil is also more commonly used in the Northeast, where properties are older – particularly in New England, where a third of households still rely on oil for heating.

Why heat pumps?

Instead of generating heat by burning fuels such as natural gas that directly emit carbon, heat pumps use electricity to move heat from one place to another. Air-source heat pumps extract the heat of outside air, and ground-source heat pumps, sometimes called geothermal heat pumps, extract heat stored in the ground.

Heat pump efficiency depends on the local climate: A heat pump operated in Florida will provide more heat per unit of electricity used than one in colder northern states such as Minnesota or Massachusetts.

But they are highly efficient: An air-source heat pump can reduce household heating energy use by roughly 30% to 50% relative to existing fossil-based systems and up to 75% relative to inefficient electric systems such as baseboard heaters.

Heat pumps can also reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, although that depends on how their electricity is generated – whether from fossil fuels or cleaner energy, such as wind and solar.

Heat pumps can lower heating bills

We found that for households currently using oil, propane or non-heat pump forms of electric heating – such as electric furnaces or baseboard resistive heaters – installing a heat pump would reduce heating bills across all parts of the country.

The amount a household can save on energy costs with a heat pump depends on region and heating type, averaging between $200 and $500 a year for the average-size household currently using propane or oil.

However, savings can be significantly greater: We found the greatest opportunity for savings in households using inefficient forms of electric heating in northern regions. High electricity prices in the Northeast, for example, mean that heat pumps can save consumers up to $3,000 a year over what they would pay to heat with an electric furnace or to use baseboard heating.

A challenge in converting homes using natural gas

Unfortunately for the households that use natural gas in colder, northern regions – making up around half of the country’s annual heating needs – installing a heat pump could raise their annual heating bills. Our analysis shows that bills could increase by as much as $1,200 per year in northern regions, where electricity costs are as much as five times greater than natural gas per kilowatt-hour.

Even households that install ground-source heat pumps, the most efficient type of heat pump, would still see bill increases in regions with the highest electricity prices relative to natural gas.

Installation costs

In parts of the country where households would see their energy costs drop after installing a heat pump, the savings would eventually offset the upfront costs. But those costs can be significant and discourage people from buying.

On average, it costs $17,000 to install an air-source heat pump and typically at least $30,000 to install a ground-source heat pump.

Some homes may also need upgrades to their electrical systems, which can increase the total installation price even more, by tens of thousands of dollars in some cases, if costly service upgrades are required.

In places where air conditioning is typical, homes may be able to offset some costs by using heat pumps to replace their air conditioning units as well as their heating systems. For instance, a new program in California aims to encourage homeowners who are installing central air conditioning or replacing broken AC systems to get energy-efficient heat pumps that provide both heating and cooling.

Rising costs of electricity

A main finding of our analysis was that the cost of electricity is key to encouraging people to install heat pumps.

Electricity prices have risen sharply across the U.S. in recent years, driven by factors such as extreme weather, aging infrastructure and increasing demand for electric power. New data center demand has added further pressure and raised questions about who bears these costs.

Heat pump installations will also increase electricity demand on the grid: The full electrification of home heating across the country would increase peak electricity demand by about 70%. But heat pumps – when used in concert with other technologies such as hot-water storage – can provide opportunities for grid balancing and be paired with discounted or time-of-use rate structures to reduce overall operating costs. In some states, regulators have ordered utilities to discount electricity costs for homes that use heat pumps.

But ultimately, encouraging households to embrace heat pumps and broader economy-wide electrification, including electric vehicles, will require more than just technological fixes and a lot more electricity – it will require lower power prices.

About the Author:

Roxana Shafiee, Environmental Fellow, Center for the Environment, Harvard University; Harvard Kennedy School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

29 Jan

20,000 Meters Into a Strategic Metal as Tungsten Drilling Accelerates in Europe

Source: Streetwise Reports (1/28/26)

Allied Critical Metals Inc. (ACM:CSE; ACMIF:OTCQB; 0VJ0:FSE) has launched a fully funded 20,000 meter drill campaign at its Borralha Tungsten Project in northern Portugal. Read how the 2026 program builds on expanded resources and targets multiple breccia zones ahead of planned economic studies.

Allied Critical Metals Inc. (ACM:CSE; ACMIF:OTCQB; 0VJ0:FSE) has commenced a 20,000 meter drill campaign at its 100%-owned Borralha Tungsten Project in northern Portugal. According to the company, this fully funded 2026 exploration program will target multiple zones within the Borralha property, building on the 2025 drill results and a significantly expanded Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) announced in late 2025.

The 2026 drill program includes core and reverse circulation drilling and is intended to support multiple objectives. These include step-out and infill drilling to upgrade the current resource estimate, further testing of the Santa Helena Breccia, and exploration of other mineralized zones. The program will also provide material for metallurgical test work and generate data to support the company’s anticipated Preliminary Economic Assessment, which is targeted for completion in Q1 2026.

The company stated that drilling will also target the Venise Breccia, located north of Santa Helena, which is historically known for high-grade wolframite and molybdenum mineralization.

“We are excited to launch our most ambitious drill program to date at Borralha,” said Roy Bonnell, CEO and Director of Allied, in a company news release. “With tungsten designated a strategic critical material in the European Union and the United States, this expanded 20,000-meter program will be a cornerstone of our efforts to define Borralha’s resource potential and support advancing the project toward economic evaluation.”

The Borralha project includes bulk mineralization zones as well as high-grade breccia corridors, and has already received regulatory milestones allowing progression through engineering and permitting phases. The company noted that recent work confirmed the system’s scale and resource growth potential.

Tungsten’s Role in Defense Supply Chains, Strategic Metals, and Institutional Allocation

In a January 21 sector analysis published by Tungsten for Stainless: Canada Minerals in 2026 – Driving the Future of Critical Technology & Industry, tungsten was described as a foundational input in advanced sectors such as defense, aerospace, electronics, and stainless steel manufacturing. The report stated that “tungsten accounts for over 90% of stainless steel’s hardness additives in Canada’s high-tech exports as of 2026,” and emphasized the metal’s role in corrosion resistance, extreme heat durability, and wear tolerance. Tungsten was identified as indispensable for applications ranging from cutting tools and turbine components to protective armor and radiation shielding. According to the report, Canada’s tungsten reserves contribute significantly to global aerospace and defense output, with estimated contributions of up to 20% in those categories.

From a January 23 article from InvestorNews, tungsten’s rise to the top of global strategic materials discussions was attributed to decades of stockpile depletion and new geopolitical realities. Christopher Ecclestone of Hallgarten + Company said that “Western governments… fell asleep at the wheel,” allowing critical inventories to run down while attention shifted elsewhere. He described tungsten as “extraordinarily dense, extremely hard, essential for armor-piercing munitions and high-end tooling.” Lewis Black noted that tungsten’s value was “availability-driven,” stating, “the amount of tungsten in an end product is so small that the consumer barely notices the cost; what matters is whether any reliable non-Chinese supply exists at all.” The report also quoted Ecclestone saying that China had effectively told the world, “No more tungsten for you,” in reference to recent export restrictions affecting global access.

Muflih Hidayat, in a January 27 report, reported that institutional investment behavior in the tungsten sector was examined through the lens of capital allocation psychology. The report stated that portfolio managers viewed tungsten exposure as a strategic hedge, noting that “risk premiums that exceed traditional commodity investment frameworks” were being applied due to supply chain concerns. Tungsten’s “dual-use nature” in both military and civilian applications was described as generating “recession-resistant revenue streams,” contributing to strong institutional interest. The article noted that “institutional confidence that long-term value creation would exceed immediate discount impacts” was evident in recent oversubscribed placements, underscoring a shift toward long-term positioning over short-term valuation sensitivity.

Updated Borralha Resource and Preliminary Assessment Plans

According to a December 9 Caesar’s report titled Allied Critical Metals increases Borralha tungsten resource, Allied Critical Metals released an updated mineral resource estimate for its fully owned Borralha tungsten project in Portugal. The report stated that the project contained “13 million tonnes in the measured and indicated resource category at an average grade of 0.21% WO3, with an additional 7.7 million tonnes in the inferred resource category at an average grade of 0.18% WO3.” It further noted that the measured and indicated resources hosted “27,000 tonnes of WO3, which represents approximately 2.7 million mtu,” while the inferred category hosted “approximately 1.4 million mtu.”

The same report commented on the development context, stating that “the resource remains open in multiple directions, so it will be interesting to see how many tonnes can be added further down the road.” It also noted that the updated resource would be used for a Preliminary Economic Assessment, which “will be published in the first quarter of next year.” Regarding the mine design, the report stated that “the mine plan will likely be based on a long-hole stoping approach,” and that this was how “the 0.09% WO3 cutoff grade was established.”

In terms of processing assumptions, the report said that “initial metallurgical results indicate a low-cost gravity flow sheet with a recovery rate of 75-85%.” It also mentioned that “there is a chance to recover copper, tin, and silver as potential by-product credits,” and added that “the impact of these by-products will hopefully already be visible in the Preliminary Economic Assessment.”

Advancing Toward Economic Evaluation with Multiple 2026 Workstreams

Allied’s 2026 drill campaign at Borralha is designed to complete approximately 20,000 meters of drilling across multiple target zones. Program objectives include expanding and upgrading the current Mineral Resource Estimate through step-out and infill drilling, collecting metallurgical material to support prefeasibility analysis, and generating data to support the company’s Preliminary Economic Assessment, which is expected in Q1 2026.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

	Retail: 53%
	Management & Insiders: 31%
	Institutions: 16%

^*Share Structure as of 1/28/2026

Drilling will also test extensions of the Santa Helena Breccia and target the Venise Breccia, a historically recognized high-grade tungsten and molybdenum structure located to the north. These efforts follow a 2025 program that yielded significant intercepts, including what the company described as some of the largest tungsten intervals ever recorded.

According to the company, updates, including initial drill results and revised resource modeling, will be released as data becomes available throughout the campaign.

Ownership and Share Structure¹

Insiders own approximately 31% of Allied. About 16% is held by institutions and institutional investors, and the rest is held by retail shareholders.

The company has 170 million common shares issued and outstanding and 214 million common shares on a fully diluted basis. Its market cap is ~CA$180 million. Its 52-week range is CA$0.20–CA$1.20 per share.

Important Disclosures:

Allied Critical Metals Inc. has a consulting relationship with Street Smart an affiliate of Streetwise Reports. Street Smart Clients pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Allied Critical Metals Inc.
James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Financial News Metals

29 Jan

FOMC expectedly holds rates steady. Oil surges to a 4-month high

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices traded mixed. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03%, while the S&P 500 (US500) edged down by 0.01%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.32%. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of major tech earnings and the anticipated Fed decision to maintain interest rates. At its January 2026 meeting, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range, fully meeting market expectations. The decision follows three consecutive cuts last year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. However, a split emerged within the Committee: Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the hold, advocating for an additional 25 bps cut. The regulator reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, updated expectations, and the balance of risks. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the US economy enters 2026 on a “solid footing,” stating that current rate levels are appropriate for making progress toward the Fed’s dual goals of price stability and maximum employment.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to 1.35 against the US dollar, reaching a sixteen-month high as markets reacted to the Bank of Canada’s latest monetary policy decision and signals. Although US tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty continue to pressure the Canadian economy (dampening exports, investment, and labor reallocation), the Bank of Canada maintains a relatively constructive macroeconomic outlook. The regulator expects moderate GDP growth of approximately 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, estimating that excess capacity will generally offset tariff-related cost increases, keeping inflation near the 2% target.

European equity markets mostly declined on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) dropped by 1.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished down 0.52%. The primary pressure came from the luxury goods sector. LVMH shares plummeted 7.3% following weak financial results, dragging the entire segment down. CEO Bernard Arnault pointed to a challenging market environment and warned that 2026 would likely be a difficult year for the industry. Investors also remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.
The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened above 0.77 against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in ten years amid a global shift toward safe-haven assets and a simultaneous aversion to other traditional “haven” currencies. Despite the franc’s strength putting downward pressure on Switzerland’s already subdued inflation, expectations for further rate cuts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remain limited. The SNB’s policy rate has been held at 0% for six consecutive months, with central bank officials repeatedly emphasizing a cautious stance regarding a potential return to negative interest rate territory.

Platinum (XPT) prices rose toward $2,700 per ounce, returning to record levels fueled by persistent supply constraints and robust investment demand. An additional growth factor is the narrowness of the platinum market and its relatively low price compared to other precious metals, making even moderate physical purchases capable of significantly impacting price action. The structural annual supply deficit remains the key fundamental driver. Production in South Africa, which accounts for about 70% of global output, continues to face underinvestment, infrastructure disruptions, and logistical constraints. Supply risks could also intensify in Canada, another major producer, amid threats of 100% tariffs should trade agreements with China proceed.

WTI crude oil prices rose toward $64 per barrel, hitting a four-month high due to rising geopolitical risks following tough new US statements directed at Iran. President Donald Trump warned of possible further strikes while simultaneously calling for Tehran to negotiate, heightening market fears of potential disruptions to Iranian oil supplies. Fundamental data also supported the bullish move. According to the EIA report, US crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, contrary to market expectations of a 1.75 million barrel increase, further strengthening the upside momentum.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) edged down 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) surged 2.58%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.08%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) climbed above 0.70 USD, hitting a three-year high amid a gold rally and growing expectations for monetary policy tightening. All four of Australia’s major banks now consider an RBA hike likely, with market pricing reflecting a probability of over 70%. Rates are now fully priced at 3.85% by May and approximately 4.10% by September.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,978.03 −0.57 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,015.60 +12.19 (+0.03%)

DAX (DE40) 24,822.79 −71.65 (−0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,154.43 −53.37 (−0.52%)

USD Index 96.38 +0.17% (+0.17%)

News feed for: 2026.01.29

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2); – SEK (HIGH)
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

29 Jan

America is falling behind in the global EV race – that’s going to cost the US auto industry

By Hengrui Liu, Tufts University and Kelly Sims Gallagher, Tufts University

At the 2026 Detroit Auto Show, the spotlight quietly shifted. Electric vehicles, once framed as the inevitable future of the industry, were no longer the centerpiece. Instead, automakers emphasized hybrids, updated gasoline models and incremental efficiency improvements.

The show, held in January, reflected an industry recalibration happening in real time: Ford and General Motors had recently announced US$19.5 billion and $6 billion in EV-related write-downs, respectively, reflecting the losses they expect as they unwind or delay parts of their electric vehicle plans.

The message from Detroit was unmistakable: The United States is pulling back from a transition that much of the world is accelerating.

Highlights from the Detroit Auto Show, starting with V-8 trucks, by the Detroit Free Press’ auto writer.

That retreat carries consequences far beyond showroom floors.

In China, Europe and a growing number of emerging markets, including Vietnam and Indonesia, electric vehicles now make up a higher share of new passenger vehicle sales than in the United States.

That means the U.S. pullback on EV production is not simply a climate problem – gasoline-powered vehicles are a major contributor to climate change – it is also an industrial competitiveness problem, with direct implications for the future of U.S. automakers, suppliers and autoworkers. Slower EV production and slower adoption in the U.S. can keep prices higher, delay improvements in batteries and software, and increase the risk that the next generation of automotive value creation will happen elsewhere.

Where EVs are taking over

In 2025, global EV registrations rose 20% to 20.7 million. Analysts with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported that China reached 12.9 million EV registrations, up 17% from the previous year; Europe recorded 4.3 million, up 33%; and the rest of the world added 1.7 million, up 48%.

By contrast, U.S. EV sales growth was essentially flat in 2025, at about 1%. U.S. automaker Tesla experienced declines in both scale and profitability – its vehicle deliveries fell 9% compared to 2024, the company’s net profit was down 46%, and CEO Elon Musk said it would put more of its focus on artificial intelligence and robotics.

Market share tells a similar story and also challenges the assumption that vehicle electrification would take time to expand from wealthy countries to emerging markets.

In 39 countries, EVs now exceed 10% of new car sales, including in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, which reached 38%, 21% and 15%, respectively, in 2025, energy analysts at Ember report.

In the U.S., EVs accounted for less than 10% of new vehicle sales, by Ember’s estimates.

U.S. President Donald Trump came back into office in 2025 promising to end policies that supported EV production and sales and boost fossil fuels. But while the U.S. was curtailing federal consumer incentives, governments elsewhere largely continued a transition to electric vehicles.

Europe softened its goal for all vehicles to have zero emissions by 2035 at the urging of automakers, but its new target is still a 90% cut in automobiles’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2035.

Germany launched a program offering subsidies worth 1,500 to 6,000 euros per electric vehicle, aimed at small- and medium-income households.

In developing economies, EV policy has largely been sustained through industrial policies. In Brazil, the MOVER program offers tax credits explicitly linked to domestic EV production, research and development, and efficiency targets. South Africa is introducing a 150% investment allowance for EV and battery manufacturing, giving them a tax break starting in March 2026. Thailand has implemented subsidies and reduced excise tax tied to mandatory local production and export commitments.

In China, the EV industry has entered a phase of regulatory maturity. After a decade of subsidies and state-led investment that helped domestic firms undercut global competitors, the government’s focus is no longer on explosive growth at home.

With their domestic market saturated and competition fierce, Chinese automakers are pushing aggressively into global markets. Beijing has reinforced this shift by ending its full tax exemption for EV purchases and replacing it with a tapered 5% tax on EV buyers.

Consequences for US automakers

EV manufacturing is governed by steep learning curves and scale economies, meaning the more vehicles a company builds, the better it gets at making them faster and cheaper. Low domestic production and sales can mean higher costs for parts and weaker bargaining power for automakers in global supply chains.

The competitive landscape is already changing. In 2025, China exported 2.65 million EVs, doubling its 2024 exports, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. And BYD surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest EV maker in 2025.

The U.S. risks becoming a follower in the industry it once defined.

Some people argue that American consumers simply prefer trucks and hybrids. Others point to Chinese subsidies and overcapacity as distortions that justify U.S. industry caution. These concerns deserve consideration, but they do not outweigh the fundamental fact that, globally, the EV share of auto sales continues to rise.

What can the US do?

For U.S. automakers and workers to compete in this market, the government, in our view, will have to stop treating EVs as an ideological matter and start governing it like an industrial transition.

That starts with restoring regulatory credibility, something that seems unlikely right now as the Trump administration moves to roll back vehicle emissions standards. Performance standards are the quiet engine of industrial investment. When standards are predictable and enforced, manufacturers can plan, suppliers can invest in new businesses, and workers can train for reliable demand.

Governments at state and local levels and industry can also take important steps.

Focus on affordability and equity: The federal clean-vehicle tax credit that effectively gave EV buyers a discount expired in September 2025. An alternative is targeted, point-of-sale support for lower- and middle-income buyers. By moving away from blanket credits in favor of targeted incentives – a model already used in California and Pennsylvania – governments can ensure public funds are directed toward people who are currently priced out of the EV market. Additionally, interest-rate buydowns that allow buyers to reduce their loan payments and “green loan” programs can help, typically funded through state and local governments, utility companies or federal grants.

Keep building out the charging network: A federal judge ruled on Jan. 23, 2026, that the Trump administration violated the law when it suspended a $5 billion program for expanding the nation’s EV charger network. That expansion effort can be improved by shifting the focus from the number of ports installed to the number of working chargers, as California did in 2025. Enforcing reliability and clearing bottlenecks, such as electricity connections and payment systems, could help boost the number of functioning sites.

Use fleet procurement as a stabilizer for U.S. sales: When states, cities and companies provide a predictable volume of vehicle purchases, that helps manufacturers plan future investments. For example, Amazon’s 2019 order of 100,000 Rivian electric delivery vehicles to be delivered over the following decade gave the startup automaker the boost it needed.

Treat workforce transition as core infrastructure: This means giving workers skills they can carry from job to job, helping suppliers retool instead of shutting down, and coordinating training with employers’ needs. Done right, these investments turn economic change into a source of stable jobs and broad public support. Done poorly, they risk a political backlash.

The scene at the Detroit Auto Show should be a warning, not a verdict. The global auto industry is accelerating its EV transition. The question for the United States is whether it will shape that future – and ensure the technologies and jobs of the next automotive era are in the U.S. – or import it.

About the Author:

Hengrui Liu, Postdoctoral Scholar in Economics and Public Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts University and Kelly Sims Gallagher, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy, Director of the Climate Policy Lab and Center for International Environment and Resource Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

28 Jan

Today’s BoC and FOMC meetings are the focus of investors’ attention

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the US stock indices traded mixed. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.41%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.88%. Investors continued to build positions ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and key policy decisions. With approximately three-quarters of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far exceeding expectations, the market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s decision and the accompanying signals to be announced today.

Today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its scheduled monetary policy meeting. According to the consensus among major banks, the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25%. The regulator has paused to assess the impact of US trade tariffs and the economic policies of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government on exports and the broader economic balance. Markets will closely watch the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for signals regarding the resilience of Canadian economic growth and GDP amid intensifying global uncertainty, as well as hints at the future policy trajectory. A “hawkish” scenario that emphasizes inflationary risks and a strong labor market could boost the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

European equity markets mostly rose on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.27%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.58%. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Fed statement and US Big Tech earnings, while also digesting news regarding the EU-India trade deal. The automotive sector faced the most pressure: under the agreement, tariffs on cars were reduced from 110% to 10% for a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year. Consequently, shares of Porsche Automobil Holding, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW lost between 0.6% and 2.6%.

On Wednesday, Silver prices (XAG) rose to $115 per ounce, approaching a new all-time high amid a sharp weakening of the US Dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The movement was catalyzed by statements from US President Donald Trump, who indicated he was not concerned about the falling Dollar, which has dropped to four-year lows. These comments bolstered expectations that the administration is willing to tolerate a weak Dollar to enhance the competitiveness of US exports. Further support for precious metals came from political uncertainty in Washington, including threats of new trade tariffs and escalating attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, which are undermining investor confidence in the Greenback and US assets.

WTI Oil prices rose by approximately 2% on Tuesday, climbing toward the $62 per barrel level. Prices were supported by a severe winter storm in the US, which significantly disrupted oil production and refinery operations. Estimates suggest that US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day over the weekend, roughly 15% of national output, as extreme frost strained energy infrastructure and power grids. Geopolitics also remained in focus, as the US deployed an aircraft carrier and escort ships to the Middle East, raising tension levels and supporting the risk premium in oil prices.

The US Natural Gas prices (XNG) declined by more than 7% to $6.27 per MMBtu following an unprecedented rally of approximately 117% over the previous five trading sessions. Warmer weather forecasts and early signs of production recovery following the massive disruptions triggered the correction.

Asian markets rose confidently yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.92%.

On Wednesday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) traded near 0.699 USD, holding close to a three-year high following the release of inflation data. According to the report, annual inflation in December accelerated to 3.8% from 3.4% in November, and the monthly figure rose by 1.0%, significantly exceeding expectations of 0.7%. Closely watched core inflation also remained stubbornly high: the annual figure rose to 3.4%, well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. Against this backdrop, markets swiftly repriced rate expectations, with the probability of a 25 bps hike at the February 3rd RBA meeting rising to 72%, up from 63% before the inflation data release.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,978.60 +28.37 (+0.41%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,003.41 −408.99 (−0.83%)

DAX (DE40) 24,894.44 −38.64 (−0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,207.80 +58.95 +(0.58%)

USD Index 95.86 -1.23% (-1.27%)

News feed for: 2026.01.28

Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
US Fed Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

Energy Markets Price Performance led by Natural Gas

Energy Data:

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Heating Oil

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Natural Gas Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Corn

Live Cattle lead price performance this week

Soft Commodities Data:

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Precious metals are taking a beating as the dollar strengthens on reports that Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair.

1) Geopolitical risk

2) US January NFP report

3) Technical forces

News feed for: 2026.01.30

Technical Analysis

Wide variation in home heating

Why heat pumps?

Heat pumps can lower heating bills

A challenge in converting homes using natural gas

Installation costs

Rising costs of electricity

Tungsten’s Role in Defense Supply Chains, Strategic Metals, and Institutional Allocation

Updated Borralha Resource and Preliminary Assessment Plans

Advancing Toward Economic Evaluation with Multiple 2026 Workstreams

Ownership and Share Structure1

News feed for: 2026.01.29

Where EVs are taking over

Consequences for US automakers

What can the US do?

News feed for: 2026.01.28

Ownership and Share Structure¹