24 Dec

2025 Market Review: Tantrums, Tech, Conflict & Cuts

By ForexTime 

As another busy year in the financial markets comes to an end our Senior Market Analyst Lukman Otunuga talks a look at the major stories from 2025.

This review covers the major themes, key movers, the year’s biggest shocks, our forecast scorecard, and the lessons worth taking into 2026.

All performance figures referenced are year-to-date as of 16th December 2025 unless otherwise stated.

Key takeaways

  1. USD’s grip slips on FX throne, down 9% year-to-date
  2. Oil ends 2025 with double-digit losses
  3. EU50 catches up to pack, hitting fresh all-time highs
  4. Read on as we reveal the FXTM Awards: Best performing assets of 2025!

What happened to markets in 2025?

2025 was defined by uncertainty as investors navigated Trump’s trade war, monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risk and the AI bet.

These themes sparked monstrous levels of volatility, sending tremors across the board. World stocks were placed on a rollercoaster ride in the face of Trump’s trade war before surging due to the AI bet. Nvidia, feeding off this momentum, became the first company ever to reach a market cap of $5 trillion.

The Cboe volatility index saw its biggest ever one-day spike amid the tariff chaos. A shaky dollar offered relief to G10 currencies, while oil prices were mostly pressured by oversupply fears and signs of tepid demand. In the crypto space, bitcoin bulls failed to deliver due to massive ETF outflows and growing sensitivity to macroeconomic forces. Precious metals welcomed the chaos, with one even ending the year with triple-digit gains!

Amid all these developments, there were some standout market shockers:

“Liberation Day” tariffs in April

On 2nd April 2025, the Trump administration announced a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods that would take effect on 15th April. This sent shockwaves across world markets as global growth fears sparked a risk-off stampede. The S&P500 lost more than 10% in the two days after the announcement.

Bitcoin flash crash during October

Bitcoin experienced a sudden flash crash on 10th October, wiping $12,000 from its value in a matter of minutes – resulting in an unprecedented $19 billion worth of liquidations. This brutal selloff was sparked by Trump’s threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

Longest US government shutdown in history

The US government shutdown on 1st October and didn’t reopen until 13th November.

Such an event created widespread disruptions, raised fears around the US economic outlook and threw everyone into the dark. Markets are still suffering the consequences with the October US jobs report never to be released.

How did our 2025 predictions play out?

Despite all the chaos and surprises, some of our market predictions came true.

12 months ago, we picked 3 assets that could serve up major opportunities for traders and investors this year.

Here’s how they performed:

1) Dollar loosens grip on FX throne

What we discussed in the 2025 Outlook

Our dollar outlook was firmly bullish due to Trump’s “America First” policies resulting in slower Fed rate cuts, US exceptionalism and safe-haven demand.

How things played out

The USDInd did not see its best year in a decade. Instead prices weakened as Trump’s tariffs sparked concerns over the US economic outlook.

Bloomberg data on G10 currencies performance year to date

After peaking in January, it was a slippery decline amid growing bets around the Fed cutting interest rates in the face of slowing growth.

Concerns over the Fed’s independence, political uncertainty and risk appetite favouring other currencies fuelled the USD’s decline. The longest US government shutdown in history rubbed salt into the wound.

At the start of the year, markets were only expecting the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025. We saw three rate cuts instead with further cuts expected in 2026.

Technical review

In our 2025 Outlook, we suggested “should prices slip under 105.50, bears may target the 50-week SMA at 103.90, 102.70 and 100.00.”

All bearish price targets were reached.

USD Index 2025 YTD chart

USD Index down 9% YTD

2) Oil lingers near 2025 lows

What we discussed in the 2025 Outlook

Our outlook on oil was heavily bearish thanks to Trump’s tariffs, global oversupply, OPEC+ output hikes, rising US shale production and still-elevated Fed rates.

How things played out

Oil prices ended 2025 roughly 15% lower but nowhere near the levels seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Prices were hit by demand-side fears and oversupply concerns as OPEC kept pumping production to reclaim lost market share.

In 2025, the cartel implemented a series of monthly production increases starting in April. These were part of a plan to gradually reverse previous voluntary output cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Rising non-OPEC supply and higher inventories contributed to the downside.

If not for mounting geopolitical risk in the Middle East and sanctions against Russia, oil prices may have extended loss – trading closer to Covid-19 levels.

Technical review

We suggested that “a solid weekly close below $70 may open a path toward $62, $50 and $37.”

Prices hit our first bearish price targets before bottoming out around $63.

Brent oil price chart 2025 YTD

Brent Oil down 16% YTD

3) EU plays catchup to hit all-time highs

What we discussed in the 2025 Outlook

We were firmly bullish on the EU50 due to expectations around the ECB cutting rates and easing geopolitical risk in the region.

How things played out

FXTM’s EU50 surged in 2025, gaining over 15% year-to-date.

These gains were powered by lower rates in Europe, robust earnings and a historic change to German government spending which saw hundreds of billions of euros on defense/infrastructure spending.

With more government spending for Europe’s largest economy, this boosted sentiment over the Eurozone’s economic outlook – supporting equities in the region.

Technical review

We stated that “a solid weekly close above 5110 may open a path toward 5250 and the all-time high at 5522. Beyond this point, prices may venture toward 5632.”

The EU50 peaked at 5831 in 2025, fulfilling all our bullish price targets.

EURO STOXX index price chart 2025 YTD

EU50 up 17% YTD

FXTM Awards: Best performing assets of 2025

Looking across the FXTM universe, these were the best performing assets we offered in 2025!

  • Crypto: Bitcoin Cash ↑ 25% YTD
  • Stock Index: SPN35 ↑ 46% YTD
  • Metal: XAGUSD (Silver) ↑ 120% YTD
  • G10 currency: SEK (Swedish Krona) ↑ 20% YTD

Disclaimer: Data correct as of 16th December 2025.

What lessons can traders learn from 2025?

Volatility offers opportunity regardless of market direction was one of the biggest lessons of 2025.

We went into the year with a Trump-centric focus, bracing for his trade war to throw global markets into chaos.

Trump certainly didn’t disappoint with the knock-on effects impacting commodities, currencies, indices and cryptos.

But markets proved resilient with equities across the globe hitting records and on track for double-digit gains in 2025.

Metals also found their champion in silver, which gained 100% year-to-date amid supply constraints and rate cut bets. Interestingly bitcoin suffered from heavy institutional selling and could be on track for its first negative year since 2022.

We saw the AI bet and expectations around lower interest rates support global stocks this year, but the question is for how long?

What’s the outlook for 2026?

With concerns still lingering around an AI bubble, tariffs starting to bite and geopolitical risk present, things could spice up in 2026.

And this means one thing: more volatility.

Get the inside story on what to expect from markets next year with our 2026 Outlook, which is set to be published early January 2026.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
24 Dec

USDJPY Bank of Japan Hike Boosts Yen

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its policy rate to 0.75% (from 0.50%), while in line with market forecasts, marks a clear step towards monetary tightening and has pushed yields higher on Japanese assets. For the USD/JPY pair, this typically exerts downward pressure – supporting the yen’s appreciation and weighing on the exchange rate.

The underlying mechanism is straightforward: a higher interest rate in Japan boosts the relative appeal of yen-denominated investments and narrows the yield differential with the US. This, in turn, reduces the incentive for the classic carry trade – borrowing in low-yielding yen to purchase higher-yielding assets abroad – thereby increasing structural demand for the yen.

As the decision was widely anticipated, the immediate market reaction may be relatively contained. However, beyond the rate itself, the tone of the BoJ’s forward guidance will be critical. Should the central bank signal that further hikes are on the table, sustained pressure on USD/JPY is likely. Conversely, an emphasis on caution and the gradual pace of policy normalisation could limit the move to a more short-term correction.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the market reached a local bullish target at 157.72 before correcting to 155.55. We expect this corrective phase to conclude around the 155.50 level, with the potential for a consolidation range to form thereafter. A break below this range would open the path towards 155.12, while an upward exit could see a renewed advance towards 157.92.

This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is currently above zero but pointing firmly lower, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum in the near term.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 156.06. A downside break would target a decline towards 155.12, whereas an upside resolution could initiate a move towards 157.92.

This view is further validated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards the 20 level, indicating continued near-term selling pressure.

Conclusion

The BoJ’s rate hike has shifted the fundamental backdrop towards yen strength, though the extent of the move will hinge on the central bank’s future signalling. Technically, USD/JPY is entering a critical consolidation phase, with a break below 155.50 likely to accelerate the correction, while a hold above could see the pair attempt to retest recent highs.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
23 Dec

GBP/USD: UK GDP Growth Matches Forecasts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The latest UK GDP data showed annualised growth of 1.3%, in line with market expectations and slightly below the previous reading of 1.4%. The report had a broadly neutral impact on sterling, as it confirms the UK economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace, without signs of acceleration.

For the GBP/USD pair, the lack of surprise is the key takeaway. With the data matching consensus forecasts, investors have little reason to reassess their current macroeconomic outlook. In such cases, the pound tends not to attract fresh buying momentum but also avoids sharp selling pressure.

Nevertheless, the slight deceleration in growth from the prior period creates a modestly cautious backdrop for sterling. The softer figure may signal that the economy remains sensitive to elevated interest rates and subdued domestic demand. This interpretation could temper expectations of further monetary tightening from the Bank of England and limit the scope for more hawkish communication.

In the near term, the direct market impact of this GDP release is assessed as largely neutral, albeit with a mild downside bias for the pound. Subsequent direction will likely depend on upcoming UK inflation and labour market reports, alongside evolving US rate expectations and broader global risk sentiment.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair has entered a broad consolidation zone around 1.3418. We anticipate a possible extension of the range towards 1.3500 in the near term, followed by a corrective pullback to 1.3418. Upon completion of this retracement, the broader upward trend is expected to resume, targeting 1.3520, with potential for further extension towards 1.3550.

This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, price action formed a tight consolidation around 1.3424 before breaking higher and advancing to 1.3492 (a local target). We now expect a corrective decline to retest the 1.3424 level from above. Once this correction concludes, the focus will shift to the potential for a subsequent growth wave toward 1.3533.

This scenario is validated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and has begun to turn lower towards the 20 level, indicating near-term corrective momentum.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is likely to remain range-bound in the wake of in-line GDP data, which neither strengthens nor weakens the sterling narrative decisively. While the technical structure favours further upside in the medium term, near-term price action suggests a period of consolidation or mild correction may precede any renewed bullish impulse.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
22 Dec

How rogue nations are capitalizing on gaps in crypto regulation to finance weapons programs

By Nolan Fahrenkopf, University at Albany, State University of New York 

Two years after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, families of the victims filed suit against Binance, a major cryptocurrency platform that has been plagued by scandals.

In a Nov. 24, 2025, filing by representatives of more than 300 victims and family members, Binance and its former CEO – recently pardoned Changpeng Zhao – were accused of willfully ignoring anti-money-laundering and so-called “know your customer” controls that require financial institutions to identify who is engaging in transactions.

In so doing, the suit alleged that Binance and Zhao – who in 2023 pleaded guilty to money laundering violations – allowed U.S.-designated terrorist entities such as Hamas and Hezbollah to launder US$1 billion. Binance has declined to comment on the case but issued a statement saying it complies “fully with internationally recognized sanctions laws.”

The problem the Binance lawsuit touches upon goes beyond U.S.-designated terrorist groups.

As an expert in countering the proliferation of weapons technology, I believe the Binance-Hamas allegations could represent the tip of the iceberg in how cryptocurrency is being leveraged to undermine global security and, in some instances, U.S. national security.

Cryptocurrency is aiding countries such as North Korea, Iran and Russia, and various terror- and drug-related groups in funding and purchasing billions of dollars worth of technology for illicit weapons programs.

Though some enforcement actions continue, I believe the Trump administration’s embrace of cryptocurrency might compromise the U.S.’s ability to counter the illicit financing of military technology.

In fact, experts such as professor Yesha Yadav, professor Hilary J. Allen and Graham Steele, anti-corruption advocacy group Transparency International and even the U.S. Treasury itself warn it and other legislative loopholes could further risk American national security.

A tool to evade sanctions

For the past 13 years, the Project on International Security, Commerce, and Economic Statecraft, where I serve as a research fellow, has conducted research and led industry and government outreach to help countries counter the proliferation of dangerous weapons technology, including the use of cryptocurrency in weapons fundraising and money laundering.

Over that time, we have seen an increase in cryptocurrency being used to launder and raise funds for weapons programs and as an innovative tool to evade sanctions.

Efforts by state actors in Iran, North Korea and Russia rely on enforcement gaps, loopholes and the nebulous nature of cryptocurrency to launder and raise money for purchasing weapons technology. For example, in 2024 it was thought that around 50% of North Korea’s foreign currency came from crypto raised in cyberattacks.

A digital bank heist

In February 2025, North Korea stole over $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency from Bybit, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United Arab Emirates. Such attacks can be thought of as a form of digital bank heist. Bybit was executing regular transfers of cryptocurrency from cold offline wallets – like a safe in your home – to “warm wallets” that are online but require human verification for transactions.

North Korean agents duped a developer working at a service used by Bybit to install malware that granted them access to bypass the multifactor authentication. This allowed North Korea to reroute the crypto transfers to itself. The funds were moved to North Korean-controlled wallets but then washed repeatedly through mixers and multiple other crypto currencies and wallets that serve to hide the origin and end location of the funds.

While some funds have been recovered, many have disappeared.

The FBI eventually linked the attack to the North Korean cyber group TraderTraitor, one of many intelligence and cyber units engaging in cyberattacks.

Lagging behind on security

Cryptocurrency is attractive because of the ease with which it can be acquired and transferred between accounts and various digital and government-issued currencies, with little to no requirements to identify oneself.

And as countries such as Russia, Iran and North Korea have become constricted by international sanctions, they have turned to cryptocurrency to both raise funds and purchase materials for weapons programs.

Even stablecoins, promoted by the Trump administration as safer and backed by hard currency such as the U.S. dollar, suffer from extensive misuse linked to funding illicit weapons programs and other activities.

Traditional financial networks, while not immune from money laundering, have well-established safeguards to help prevent money being used to fund illicit weapons programs.

But recent analysis shows that despite enforcement efforts, the cryptocurrency industry continues to lag behind when it comes to enforcing anti-money-laundering safeguards. In at least some cases this is willful, as some crypto firms may attempt to circumvent controls for profit motives, ideological reasons or policy disputes over whether platforms can be held accountable for the actions of individual users.

It isn’t only the raising of these funds by rogue nations and terrorist groups that poses a threat, though that is often what makes headlines. A more pressing concern is the ability to quietly launder funds between front companies. This helps actors avoid the scrutiny of traditional financial networks as they seek to move funds from other fundraising efforts or firms they use to purchase equipment and technology.

The incredible number of crypto transactions, the large number of centralized and decentralized exchanges and brokers, and limited regulatory efforts have made crypto incredibly useful for laundering funds for weapons programs.

This process benefits from a lack of safeguards and “know your customer” controls that banks are required to follow to prevent financial crimes. These should, I believe, and often do apply to entities large and small that help move, store or transfer cryptocurrency known as virtual asset service providers, or VASPs. However, enforcement has proven difficult as there are an incredibly large number of VASPs across numerous jurisdictions. And jurisdictions have fluctuating capacity or willingness to implement controls.

The cryptocurrency industry, though supposedly subject to many of these safeguards, often fails to implement the rules, or it evades detection due to its decentralized nature.

Digital funds, real risk

The rewards for rogue nations and organizations such as North Korea can be great.

Ever the savvy sanctions evader, North Korea has benefited the most from its early vision on the promise of crypto. The reclusive country has established an extensive cyber program to evade sanctions that relies heavily on cryptocurrency. It is not known how much money North Korea has raised or laundered in total for its weapons program using crypto, but in the past 21 months it has stolen at least $2.8 billion in crypto.

Iran has also begun relying on cryptocurrency to aid in the sale of oil linked to weapons programs – both for itself and proxy forces such as the Houthis and Hezbollah. These efforts are fueled in part by Iran’s own crypto exchange, Nobitex.

Russia has been documented going beyond the use of crypto as a fundraising and laundering tool and has begun using its own crypto to purchase weapons material and technology that fuel its war against Ukraine.

A threat to national security

Despite these serious and escalating risks, the U.S. government is pulling back enforcement.

The controversial pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao raised eyebrows for the signal it sends regarding U.S. commitment to enforcing sanctions related to the cryptocurrency industry. Other actions such as deregulating the banking industry’s use of crypto and shuttering the Department of Justice’s crypto fraud unit have done serious damage to the U.S.’s ability to interdict and prevent efforts to utilize cryptocurrencies to fund weapons programs.

The U.S. has also committed to ending “regulation by prosecution” and has withdrawn numerous investigations related to failing to enforce regulations meant to prevent tactics used by entities such as North Korea. This includes abandoning an admittedly complicated legal case regarding sanctions against a “mixer” allegedly used by North Korea.

These actions, I believe, send the wrong message. At this very moment, cryptocurrency is being illicitly used to fund weapons programs that threaten American security. It’s a real problem that deserves to be taken seriously.

And while some enforcement actions do continue, failing to implement and enforce safeguards up front means that crypto will continue to be used to fund weapons programs. Cryptocurrency has legitimate uses, but ignoring the laundering and sanctions-evasion risks will damage American national interests and global security.The Conversation

About the Author:

Nolan Fahrenkopf, Research Fellow at Project on International Security, Commerce and Economic Statecraft, University at Albany, State University of New York

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
22 Dec

Precious metals are hitting new all-time highs. The People’s Bank of China kept its lending rates unchanged

By JustMarkets 

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.38% (for the week -0.95%), while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.88% (for the week -0.37%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed 1.31% higher (for the week -0.03%). The US stock markets ended Friday with solid gains amid a triple-witching derivatives expiration. AI-related stocks showed signs of recovery, with Oracle shares jumping over 7% following reports that TikTok agreed to sell its US business to a new joint venture involving Oracle and Silver Lake. Micron Technology gained 7%, building on a 10% gain from the previous day, while Nvidia rose more than 3% amid reports that the Trump administration is considering allowing the company to sell advanced AI chips to China. Meanwhile, Nike shares plummeted 11% following a report of declining revenue in China and the negative impact of higher tariffs on the company’s gross margins.

European equity markets mostly rose. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.37% (weekly -0.04)%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) finished up 0.01% (weekly +0.80%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.22% (weekly +1.40%), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.61% higher (weekly +2.57%). The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged starting from June 2025 confirms the bank’s current neutral stance, meaning the central bank sees no need to ease or tighten monetary policy without a significant shift in inflation or economic growth. ECB staff expectations point to moderate growth and inflation in the medium term.

Precious metal prices climbed, with silver showing particularly strong momentum. Gold continues to receive structural support from central banks. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in November to a total of 74.1 million troy ounces, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of accumulation. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, a 28% increase compared to the second quarter.

Silver is further supported by concerns over a physical metal deficit in China. As of November 21, silver inventories in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 519,000 kg, the lowest level in the last 10 years. Although the market faced pressure from profit-taking and ETF outflows after reaching record highs in mid-October, demand from funds has begun to recover, with long positions in silver ETFs reaching a nearly 3.5-year high on Tuesday.

Asian markets traded with mixed results last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.38%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.40%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 0.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive five-day result of 1.18%.

As expected, the People’s Bank of China maintained its key lending rates at historic lows, leaving the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. This decision, representing the seventh consecutive period of no change, confirms the regulator’s stance that there is no urgent need for additional stimulus to reach annual GDP growth targets, despite November statistics showing a slowdown in retail sales and industrial production growth.

The New Zealand dollar is showing a steady recovery, rising toward 0.577 USD and nearly fully reversing its drop to two-week lows amid a revision of market expectations regarding Reserve Bank policy. The currency was supported by third-quarter GDP data confirming the national economy’s exit from a long period of stagnation, which significantly reduced the likelihood of monetary easing. Since the existing economic downturn prevents inflation from rising in the near term, market expectations for rate hikes have become more modest, with the probability of such a move by July falling from 50% to 40%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,834.50 +59.74 (+0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,134.89 +183.04 (+0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 24,288.40 +88.90 (+0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,897.42 +59.65 (+0.61%)

USD Index 98.72 +0.09% (+0.30%)

News feed for: 2025.12.22

  • China Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2). – HK50 (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
22 Dec

EUR/USD: ECB Policy Stance Fails to Surprise Markets

By RoboForex Analytical Department

At its meeting on 18 December, the European Central Bank (ECB) left all key interest rates unchanged, maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2.0%. The decision was widely anticipated, offering no fresh catalyst for meaningful euro movement. While headline inflation for the eurozone remained close to target at 2.15% in November, the ECB’s updated projections saw a slight upward revision for the coming years, primarily driven by persistent price growth in the services sector.

Concurrently, the ECB improved its GDP growth forecast for 2025–2027. However, with the decision fully priced in, it provided neither additional support nor pressure to the single currency.

The primary driver for EUR/USD now stems from US monetary policy. The recent Federal Reserve rate cut from 4.00% to 3.75% has narrowed the yield differential between the dollar and the euro. This reduces the dollar’s interest rate advantage and makes euro-denominated assets relatively more attractive, providing a moderate tailwind for the euro.

Looking ahead, medium-term dynamics will hinge on relative expectations for central bank policy. Should markets continue to price in a more aggressive easing cycle from the Fed compared to the ECB, the euro is likely to find further support. Conversely, any signs that the ECB is preparing to proactively ease policy in response to eurozone economic weakness would limit the euro’s upside potential.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair is consolidating near the breakdown level of the previous growth channel’s lower boundary. We anticipate a downside breakout from this range and a resumption of the third decline wave, with an initial target at 1.1650.

The MACD indicator technically confirms this bearish outlook. Its signal line is below zero and pointing decisively downward, reflecting sustained bearish momentum and potential for further downside.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market completed another decline wave to 1.1702, followed by a correction to 1.1737. A new downward impulse towards 1.1650 is currently forming. A sustained break below this level would signal the potential for an extended third wave, targeting the 1.1645 area as a local objective.

This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 50 level and trending firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The euro’s trajectory remains more sensitive to shifting US policy expectations than to the ECB’s predictable stance. While the narrowed interest rate differential offers near-term support, the technical structure appears bearish. A decisive break below the current consolidation range could trigger a renewed move towards the 1.1650–1.1645 support zone.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
19 Dec

The US already faces a health care workforce shortage – immigration policy could make it worse

By Bedassa Tadesse, University of Minnesota Duluth 

As Americans gather for holiday celebrations, many will quietly thank the health care workers who keep their families and friends well: the ICU nurse who stabilized a grandparent, the doctor who adjusted a tricky prescription, the home health aide who ensures an aging relative can bathe and eat safely.

Far fewer may notice how many of these professionals are foreign-born, and how immigration policies shaped in Washington today could determine whether those same families can get care when they need it in the future.

As an economist who studies how immigration influences economies, including health care systems, I see a consistent picture: Immigrants are a vital part of the health care workforce, especially in roles facing staffing shortages.

Yet current immigration policies, such as increased visa fees, stricter eligibility requirements and enforcement actions that affect legally present workers living with undocumented family members, risk eroding this critical workforce, threatening timely care for millions of Americans. The timing couldn’t be worse.

A perfect storm: Rising demand, looming shortages

America’s health care system is entering an unprecedented period of strain. An aging population, coupled with rising rates of chronic conditions, is driving demand for care to new heights.

The workforce isn’t growing fast enough to meet those needs. The U.S. faces a projected shortfall of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. Hospitals, clinics and elder-care services are expected to add about 2.1 million jobs between 2022 and 2032. Many of those will be front-line caregiving roles: home health, personal care and nursing assistants.

For decades, immigrant health care workers have filled gaps where U.S.-born workers are limited. They serve as doctors in rural clinics, nurses in understaffed hospitals and aides in nursing homes and home care settings.

Nationally, immigrants make up about 18% of the health care workforce, and they’re even more concentrated in critical roles. Roughly 1 in 4 physicians, 1 in 5 registered nurses and 1 in 3 home health aides are foreign-born.

State-level data reveals just how deeply immigrants are embedded in the health care system. Consider California, where immigrants account for 1 in 3 physicians, 36% of registered nurses and 42% of health aides. On the other side of the country, immigrants make up 35% of hospital staff in New York state. In New York City, they are the majority of health care workers, representing 57% of the health care workforce.

Even in states with smaller immigrant populations, their impact is outsized.

In Minnesota, immigrants are nearly 1 in 3 nursing assistants in nursing homes and home care agencies, despite being just 12% of the overall workforce. Iowa, where immigrants are just 6.3% of the population, relies on them for a disproportionate share of rural physicians.

These patterns transcend geography and partisan divides. From urban hospitals to rural clinics, immigrants keep facilities operational. Policies that reduce their numbers – through higher visa fees, stricter eligibility requirements or increased deportations – have ripple effects, closed hospital beds.

While health care demand soars, the pipeline for new health care workers could struggle to keep pace under current rules. Medical schools and nursing programs face capacity limits, and the time required to train new professionals – often a decade for doctors – means that there aren’t any quick fixes.

Immigrants have long bridged this gap – not just in clinical roles but in research and innovation. International students, who often pursue STEM and health-related fields at U.S. universities, are a key part of this pipeline. Yet recent surveys from the Council of Graduate Schools show a sharp decline in new international student enrollment for the 2025-26 academic year, driven partly by visa uncertainties and global talent competition.

If this trend holds, the smaller cohorts arriving today will mean fewer physicians, nurses, biostatisticians and medical researchers in the coming decade – precisely when demand peaks. Although no major research organization has yet modeled the full impact that stricter immigration policies could have on the health care workforce, experts warn that tighter visa rules, higher application fees and stepped-up enforcement are likely to intensify shortages, not ease them.

These policies make it harder to hire foreign-born workers and create uncertainty for those already here. In turn, that complicates efforts to staff hospitals, clinics and long-term care facilities at a moment when the system can least afford additional strain.

The hidden toll: Delayed care, rising risks

Patients don’t feel staffing gaps as statistics – they feel them physically.

A specialist appointment delayed by months can mean worsening pain. Older adults without home care aides face higher risks of falls, malnutrition and medication errors. An understaffed nursing home turning away patients leaves families scrambling. These aren’t hypotheticals – they’re already happening in pockets of the country where shortages are acute.

The costs of restrictive immigration policies won’t appear in federal budgets but in human tolls: months spent with untreated depression, discomfort awaiting procedures, or preventable hospitalizations. Rural communities, often served by immigrant physicians, and urban nursing homes, reliant on immigrant aides, will feel this most acutely.

Most Americans won’t read a visa bulletin or a labor market forecast over holiday dinners. But they will notice when it becomes harder to get care for a child, a partner or an aging parent.

Aligning immigration policy with the realities of the health care system will not, by itself, fix every problem in U.S. health care. But tightening the rules in the face of rising demand and known shortages almost guarantees more disruption. If policymakers connect immigration policy to workforce realities, and adjust it accordingly, they can help ensure that when Americans reach out for care, someone is there to answer.The Conversation

About the Author:

Bedassa Tadesse, Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota Duluth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News
19 Dec

ECB, Riksbank, and Norges Bank kept rates unchanged. BoE proceeded with a rate cut.

By JustMarkets 

At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.79%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 1.38%. The US stock markets grew steadily on Thursday amid unexpectedly soft US inflation data. Annual inflation in November slowed to 2.7%, below market expectations, while the core figure fell to 2.6% – the lowest level since spring 2021 – fueling expectations of further Fed rate cuts next year. The consumer and technology sectors were the main drivers of growth, with Micron Technology shares soaring approximately 10% following strong quarterly earnings and a positive outlook.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) strengthened to around 18 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, after the Bank of Mexico, as expected, lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%. This move, part of an ongoing monetary easing cycle that began about a year ago, reflects the regulator’s confidence that inflation will gradually return to the 3% target, despite core inflation remaining above 4% and weak domestic economic dynamics.

European stock markets grew confidently yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.00%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.80%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.65% on Thursday. The ECB, as expected, left interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed its commitment to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, as updated growth and inflation forecasts for 2026 provided no reason to revise the current policy course. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that inflation is in a “narrow range,” and core inflation has not changed significantly, remaining near the 2% target. In the region, the Norwegian and Swedish central banks also kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of England, as expected, cut them by 25 basis points.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell approximately 3% to $3.9 per MMBtu, nearing a seven-week low. Price pressure is stemming from record-high production volumes and comfortable inventory levels: December production in the Lower 48 states is estimated at 109.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, comparable to November’s record levels. According to EIA data, 167 bcf of gas was withdrawn from storage for the week, slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that inventories still exceed the five-year average by about 0.9%.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose to $1,720 per ounce, reaching their highest level since January 2023, amid expectations of rising demand and shrinking supply. The market was supported by regulatory changes in Europe: the European Commission proposed softening the ban on internal combustion engines to 2035, lowering the emission-reduction target from 100% to 90%, and allowing the sale of some non-electric vehicles after 2035. This decision potentially supports palladium demand, as gasoline and hybrid vehicles still require catalytic converters.

Asian markets mostly rose on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.12%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.04%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,774.76 +53.33 (+0.79%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,951.85 +65.88 (+0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 24,199.50 +238.91 (+1.00%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,837.77 +63.45 (+0.65%)

USD Index 98.44 +0.07% (+0.07%)

News feed for: 2025.12.19

  • Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
  • Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY, JP225 (HIGH)
  • Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY, JP225 (HIGH)
  • Japan BoJ Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
19 Dec

Euro Holds Near 1.1700 Following ECB Policy Stance

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair declined to around 1.1700 after the European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged, a widely anticipated decision that provided little fresh directional impetus for the single currency.

As expected, the main refinancing rate was held at 2.15%, with the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.0%. ECB officials reiterated their commitment to a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach.

During the subsequent press conference, President Christine Lagarde stated that policymakers did not discuss either a rate hike or a cut at this juncture. She emphasised that the ECB does not have a pre-set path for interest rates and, given the prevailing high uncertainty, cannot provide forward guidance on future policy moves.

In parallel, the central bank released its latest quarterly economic projections. Growth forecasts were revised upwards to 1.4% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. The inflation outlook for 2026 was also adjusted higher, primarily driven by persistent price pressures in the services sector.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair completed a corrective rebound to 1.1760 and is now forming a downward impulse targeting 1.1706. A break below this level is anticipated, which would set the next local bearish target at 1.1640.

This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is positioned above zero but is pointing sharply downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum and the potential for a further extension of the downtrend.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has finished a first decline to 1.1705, followed by a correction to 1.1755. A second downward impulse towards 1.1705 is currently developing. A clear break below this support would signal the potential for a third wave of decline, targeting the 1.1645 level as a local objective.

This outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the 50 level and trending firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The euro remains range-bound following a largely uneventful ECB meeting, with the central bank’s cautious, data-dependent stance offering little support. The technical structure points to further downside risk, with a break below immediate support at 1.1705 likely to trigger a move towards the 1.1640 area.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Dec

The US tech sector is under sell-off. Platinum hits a 17-year high

By JustMarkets 

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.47%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.16%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 1.81%. The US stock markets finished significantly down on Wednesday, extending their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session. The main pressure came from the technology sector amid persistent concerns over high valuations and massive investments in AI-related projects. Oracle shares tumbled 5.4% following reports that its key data center partner, Blue Owl, declined to support a $10 billion data center construction project. Nvidia shares fell by 3.8%, Broadcom by 4.5%, and AMD by 5.3%. Against this backdrop, the energy sector outperformed the market, receiving support from rising oil prices following President Trump’s order for a “full and comprehensive” blockade of oil tankers associated with Venezuela.

European stock markets traded without a uniform dynamic yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.92%. The European Central Bank, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Norges Bank are expected to keep interest rates unchanged and will likely maintain current policy levels through 2026. Even with the Bank of England’s expected rate cut on Thursday, markets are still pricing in only one additional cut next year, despite softer inflation data.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 2% on Wednesday, exceeding $56 per barrel, rebounding from a nearly five-year low reached in the previous session. The market was supported by US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a “full and comprehensive” blockade on sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela, following the recent detention of blacklisted vessels and an increased US military presence in the region. An additional growth factor was reports of a new round of US sanctions being prepared against Russia’s energy sector to increase pressure on Moscow in the context of negotiations over Ukraine.

Platinum (XPT) rose above $1,930 per ounce, reaching its highest level since 2008, amid growing economic and political uncertainty in the US, which bolstered demand for alternative assets for diversification. Growth was also driven by supply risks, as production in South Africa, the world’s largest platinum producer, came in weaker than expected. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) prognoses a market deficit of 69,000 ounces in 2025, the third consecutive year of deficit, before a move toward a balanced market with a small surplus is expected in 2026.

On Wednesday, silver appreciated by more than 4%, exceeding $66 per ounce and setting a new all-time high. The market received an extra boost following statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who allowed for the possibility of a 1% point rate cut in the US, citing nearly zero job growth and the need for moderate policy easing to support the labor market. In a broader perspective, silver’s price increase of nearly 130% since the start of the year is supported by structural factors: shrinking inventories and steady demand from industrial and retail investors, primarily in the solar energy, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.92%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.16%.

The Bank of Indonesia (BI), at its December 2025 monetary policy meeting, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% for the third consecutive time. This decision aligns with expectations and is aimed at supporting the Rupiah despite signs of slowing economic growth. The move follows a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September of last year, bringing the rate to its lowest level since October 2022. This stance reflects the central bank’s view that inflation in 2025–2026 will remain within the target range of 2.5% ± 1% due to a stable Rupiah and ongoing measures to sustain economic growth.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,721.43 −78.83 (−1.16%)

Dow Jones (US30 47,885.97 −228.29 (−0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 23,960.59 −116.28 (−0.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,774.32 +89.53 (+0.92%)

USD Index 98.41 +0.26% (+0.26%)

News feed for: 2025.12.18

  • Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2); – SEK (MED)
  • Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
  • UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP, UK100 (HIGH)
  • UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP, UK100 (HIGH)
  • Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (HIGH)
  • Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (HIGH)
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU, US Indices (HIGH)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2); – EUR, DE40 (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – (HIGH)
  • Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (HIGH)
  • New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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