28 Jan

EUR/USD Updates Four-Year High: Everything Works Against the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD reached 1.2000 on Wednesday after rising to 1.2082 the previous evening, marking a strong four-day rally. The pressure on the US dollar has intensified following comments from US President Donald Trump. He stated that he was not concerned about the weakening of the dollar, viewing its fall as moderate. The market interpreted this as a signal that the administration might be willing to tolerate a weaker dollar to enhance export competitiveness.

An additional blow to the dollar came from rising political uncertainty in Washington, with Trump making fresh statements about Greenland and continuing to criticise the US Federal Reserve’s independence.

Further compounding the dollar’s decline is growing speculation about a potential joint US-Japan currency intervention to support the yen, which has boosted demand for JPY.

Investors’ focus is on the Federal Reserve’s decision, due later tonight. The Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate, but much attention is on potential signals regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Current expectations suggest two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an upward wave towards 1.2080. A breakout above this resistance level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. For now, the pair is in a corrective phase, with support around 1.1935. The correction is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows the histogram and signal line above zero and forming a downward wave. After the correction, the upward trend may resume towards 1.2100 and potentially 1.2200, though corrections could occur during the rise.

On the H1 chart, after testing resistance, EUR/USD is forming a correction. A rebound from support at 1.1935 would signal a continuation of the bullish wave. The Stochastic indicator’s signal lines are approaching the 20 level, suggesting that the correction may continue before resuming the upward trend. The next target for growth could be 1.2100.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair continues to show bullish momentum, supported by a weaker US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions. The ongoing correction might offer buying opportunities, with further growth likely towards 1.2100 and 1.2200, depending on the Fed’s upcoming decision and global market dynamics.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 Jan

Copper Targets Take Center Stage as New Drill Program Launches in Minnesota

Source: Streetwise Reports (1/26/26)

Green Bridge Metals Corp. (GRBM:CSE; GBMCF:OTC; J48:FWB) has initiated a diamond drilling program at the Titac Project, part of its South Contact District portfolio in northeastern Minnesota. The campaign aims to evaluate copper mineralization within a known titanium-bearing zone using modern geophysics and historic data.

Green Bridge Metals Corp. (GRBM:CSE; GBMCF:OTC; J48:FWB) has commenced a diamond core drilling program at its Titac Project, part of the South Contact District in northeastern Minnesota. The Phase 1 program is the first stage of targeted drilling aimed at evaluating and expanding copper mineralization at the Titac South deposit, which also hosts a titanium dioxide mineral resource outlined in an NI 43-101 Technical Report dated September 18, 2024.

According to the company, the drill program consists of six diamond core holes, each targeting a depth of approximately 300 meters, for a total of roughly 1,800 meters. The drill holes will be arranged in a fence-style section across the Titac South deposit, spaced approximately 50 meters apart.

The program’s objectives include defining the geological and structural controls on copper mineralization, validating historic copper assay results, and testing the spatial relationship between copper mineralization and geophysical anomalies.

The company stated that copper mineralization at Titac occurs primarily as chalcopyrite and is associated with an Oxide Ultramafic Intrusion (OUI) that also hosts the titanium dioxide resource. Drill targets have been prioritized where conductive and magnetic anomalies overlap, based on a 2025 VTEM airborne electromagnetic survey and modern 3D magnetic and conductivity inversions.

David Suda, President and CEO of Green Bridge Metals, said in a company news release, “The commencement of drilling at Titac is an important milestone for Green Bridge as we begin systematically testing the copper potential of a project that already hosts a titanium resource.” He added, “The strong correlation between these anomalies and known mineralization, together with the identification of several new targets, reinforces the exploration potential at Titac.”

US Policy Shifts Reshape Critical Mineral Supply Landscape

According to Catherine Boudreau, on January 7, analysis of U.S. interest in Venezuelan critical minerals showed that while the country was believed to hold deposits used in artificial intelligence, defense systems, and renewable energy technologies, significant barriers limited their relevance. Experts cited political instability, lack of reliable data, illegal mining activity, and infrastructure constraints. Tom Moerenhout of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy was quoted as saying, “In theory, yes, Venezuela has a lot of interesting critical minerals resources. In practice, those resources are only relevant if they are economically recoverable reserves.” The analysis also noted that most Western mining companies remain focused on expanding existing operations rather than entering high-risk jurisdictions. 

In a separate sector assessment, Reed Blakemore and Alexis Harmon wrote on January 13 that Greenland possesses “substantial reserves of rare earth elements, uranium, and other strategically important minerals,” but faces major obstacles to development. The authors stated that Greenland lacks extensive infrastructure and emphasized that Greenland’s mineral potential is largely long-term rather than immediately actionable.

According to Muflih Hidayat on January 26, U.S. policy toward critical minerals entered a new phase with the proposal of a US$2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve. The report stated that the United States maintained “100% import reliance on 12 essential minerals and 50%+ dependency on an additional 29 strategic materials,” highlighting supply chain vulnerability. It also noted China’s “90% processing dominance in rare earth elements” as a concentration risk. The analysis explained that the proposed reserve would allow above-market purchasing, counter-cyclical stockpiling, and profit reinvestment. As quoted in Congressional testimony cited in the report, “The legislation aims to provide targeted investments and stockpiling key inputs to help insulate the U.S. from foreign threats while providing a significant and cost-effective boost to the U.S. economy.”

Also on January 26, Bloomberg noted copper’s sharp price surge, stating it had “surged nearly 50% in eight months.” The report acknowledged copper’s critical role in manufacturing, clean energy, and artificial intelligence infrastructure, adding that “years of chronic underinvestment have left global mine capacity stretched to its limits.” TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali described copper’s tight supply conditions as “an unprecedented level of copper scarcity,” while Global X’s Trevor Yates said miners could remain profitable across normalized business cycles. Bloomberg also reported that unencumbered above-ground copper inventories had reached “unprecedentedly low levels,” and warned that markets could no longer withstand notable disruptions without significant pricing pressure.

Analysts Point to District-Scale Footprint and Strategic Metals Exposure

1On December 26, John Newell of John Newell & Associates published a favorable assessment of Green Bridge Metals Corp., assigning the company a Speculative Buy rating. Newell stated that the company had “quietly assembled a district-scale land position” across northern Minnesota and Ontario, with exposure to copper, nickel, platinum group metals, titanium, and vanadium. He described these commodities as being “at the center of electrification, infrastructure renewal, and defense supply chain priorities.”

Newell identified the Serpentine project as the company’s foundational asset and described it as the primary source of near-term value. He referenced an existing mineral resource estimate consisting of approximately 21.6 million tonnes of Indicated material grading 0.69% copper equivalent and 280 million tonnes of Inferred material grading 0.53% copper equivalent. He noted that platinum group elements were not included in the historical estimate and stated that this represented additional potential. Newell also highlighted the project’s level of advancement, citing access to paved roads, rail, and power, along with permitted drill pads in place for the 2025–2026 program.

From a technical perspective, Newell described the company’s share price as entering an early accumulation phase, pointing to chart patterns, flattening moving averages, and reduced selling pressure. He identified a breakout range between CA$0.14 and CA$0.16 and referenced an initial price objective near CA$0.20. The stock has since surpassed CA$0.20, and Newell noted further upside potential toward CA$0.30 and CA$0.40 under favorable market and company-specific conditions.

Earlier the same day, Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. also issued a positive outlook on the company. Ballanger stated that he added Green Bridge Metals to his portfolio following a review of the Serpentine project and a discussion with the company’s chief executive officer. He described the Duluth Complex as “one of the most highly-prospective regions on the planet” and pointed to the geological setting and established infrastructure as key attributes.

Ballanger also drew attention to the company’s titanium exposure, noting that titanium appeared on the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 List of Critical Minerals. He stated, “Owning a developer with a focus on a critical metal (titanium) accomplishes” the objective of maintaining portfolio exposure to strategic assets that were not correlated with traditional markets. Ballanger referenced U.S. government funding initiatives that allocated US$37.5 million in 2025 toward titanium development and noted upcoming drill programs at the South Contact Zone and Serpentine as milestones in the company’s progression.

Multiple Exploration Streams Underway

Green Bridge Metals is undertaking several initiatives across its South Contact District portfolio, including both follow-up work at Titac and new exploration at additional project areas.

At Titac, the current Phase 1 drill program is designed to determine whether copper mineralization is confined to the Oxide Ultramafic Intrusion or extends into adjacent layered mafic intrusions. Subject to results, subsequent phases may include additional drilling at Titac South to assess continuity and extent of copper mineralization, initial drill testing at Titac North, and testing of a newly identified deep conductive and magnetic anomaly south of the current target area.

Streetwise Ownership Overview* 

Retail: 73.86%
Institutions: 15%
Strategic Investors: 10%
Management & Insiders: 1.14%
73.9%
15.0%
10.0%
*Share Structure as of 1/20/2026

 

Beyond Titac, the company is also advancing its Serpentine project. The company has outlined a longer-term exploration framework that includes up to 25,500 meters of infill drilling to be completed in multiple phases, along with pilot-scale metallurgical testing and work aimed at increasing the copper-equivalent grade by expanding known high-grade zones. The total multi-year exploration program has been estimated at approximately US$11.8 million. According to the company’s investor presentation, the project is permitted for exploration drilling and is near well-developed infrastructure.  Additional work at the Skibo prospect includes completion of historical core sampling and evaluation of cobalt and platinum group element byproducts. Historical results from Skibo include intervals such as 3.0 meters of 1.6% Cu, 0.4% Ni, and 18.3 g/t PGE, and 153 meters of 0.28% Cu, 0.15% Ni, and 0.37 g/t PGE.exploration activities at Serpentine are permitted for near-term work, and the project is located in a jurisdiction with existing road, rail, and processing infrastructure.

Ownership and Share Structure2

Encampment Minerals, a strategic partner and asset vendor, holds approximately 10% of Green Bridge. Four institutional investors collectively own 15% of the float. Management and insiders own a total of 1.14%, including CEO David Suda, who holds 2 million shares.

Green Bridge Metals has 196,758,632 shares outstanding and a market capitalization of CA$30 million. The company has a 52-week trading range of CA$0.08-CA$0.26.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Green Bridge is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Green Bridge.
  3. James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

  1. Disclosure for the quote from the John Newell article published on December 26, 2025
  1. For the quoted article (published on December 26, 2025), the Company has paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, between US$3,500.
  2. Author Certification and Compensation: [John Newell of John Newell and Associates] was retained and compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart for writing this article. Mr. Newell holds a Chartered Investment Management (CIM) designation (2015) and a  U.S. Portfolio Manager designation (2015). The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the companies discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

  1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Financial News Metals
27 Jan

Moore’s law: the famous rule of computing has reached the end of the road, so what comes next?

By Domenico Vicinanza, Anglia Ruskin University 

For half a century, computing advanced in a reassuring, predictable way. Transistors – devices used to switch electrical signals on a computer chip – became smaller. Consequently, computer chips became faster, and society quietly assimilated the gains almost without noticing.

These faster chips enable greater computing power by allowing devices to perform tasks more efficiently. As a result, we saw scientific simulations improving, weather forecasts becoming more accurate, graphics more realistic, and later, machine learning systems being developed and flourishing. It looked as if computing power itself obeyed a natural law.

This phenomenon became known as Moore’s Law, after the businessman and scientist Gordon Moore. Moore’s Law summarised the empirical observation that the number of transistors on a chip approximately doubled every couple of years. This also allows the size of devices to shrink, so it drives miniaturisation.

That sense of certainty and predictability has now gone, and not because innovation has stopped, but because the physical assumptions that once underpinned it no longer hold.

So what replaces the old model of automatic speed increases? The answer is not a single breakthrough, but several overlapping strategies.

One involves new materials and transistor designs. Engineers are refining how transistors are built to reduce wasted energy and unwanted electrical leakage. These changes deliver smaller, more incremental improvements than in the past, but they help keep power use under control.

Another approach is changing how chips are physically organised. Rather than placing all components on a single flat surface, modern chips increasingly stack parts on top of each other or arrange them more closely. This reduces the distance that data has to travel, saving both time and energy.

Perhaps the most important shift is specialisation. Instead of one general-purpose processor trying to do everything, modern systems combine different kinds of processors. Traditional processing units or CPUs handle control and decision-making. Graphics processors, are powerful processing units that were originally designed to handle the demands of graphics for computer games and other tasks. AI accelerators (specialised hardware that speeds up AI tasks) focus on large numbers of simple calculations carried out in parallel. Performance now depends on how well these components work together, rather than on how fast any one of them is.

Alongside these developments, researchers are exploring more experimental technologies, including quantum processors (which harness the power of quantum science) and photonic processors, which use light instead of electricity.

These are not general-purpose computers, and they are unlikely to replace conventional machines. Their potential lies in very specific areas, such as certain optimisation or simulation problems where classical computers can struggle to explore large numbers of possible solutions efficiently. In practice, these technologies are best understood as specialised co-processors, used selectively and in combination with traditional systems.

For most everyday computing tasks, improvements in conventional processors, memory systems and software design will continue to matter far more than these experimental approaches.

For users, life after Moore’s Law does not mean that computers stop improving. It means that improvements arrive in more uneven and task-specific ways. Some applications, such as AI-powered tools, diagnostics, navigation, complex modelling, may see noticeable gains, while general-purpose performance increases more slowly.

New technologies

At the Supercomputing SC25 conference in St Louis, hybrid systems that mix CPUs (processors) and GPUs (graphics processing units) with emerging technologies such as quantum or photonic processors were increasingly presented and discussed as practical extensions of classical computing. For most everyday tasks, improvements in classical processors, memories and software will continue to deliver the biggest gains.

But there is growing interest in using quantum and photonic devices as co-
processors, not replacements. Their appeal lies in tackling specific classes of
problems, such as complex optimisation or routing tasks, where finding low-energy
or near-optimal solutions can be exponentially expensive for classical machines
alone.

In this supporting role, they offer a credible way to combine the reliability of
classical computing with new computational techniques that expand what these
systems can do.

Life after Moore’s Law is not a story of decline, but one that requires constant
transformation and evolution. Computing progress now depends on architectural
specialisation, careful energy management, and software that is deeply aware of
hardware constraints. The danger lies in confusing complexity with inevitability, or marketing narratives with solved problems.

The post-Moore era forces a more honest relationship with computation where performance is not anymore something we inherit automatically from smaller transistors, but it is something we must design, justify, and pay for, in energy, in complexity, and in trade-offs.The Conversation

About the Author:

Domenico Vicinanza, Associate Professor of Intelligent Systems and Data Science, Anglia Ruskin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming
27 Jan

Precious metals and gas prices continue to rise.

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, the US stock indices posted solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.50%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.43%. Growth was driven primarily by the technology and communication services sectors: shares of Apple, Meta, and Microsoft strengthened significantly ahead of their financial results, whereas the consumer goods sector lagged due to a decline in Tesla stock. Market focus shifted to Wednesday’s Fed meeting and speculation about the potential appointment of a new Chairman, as well as the risk of a renewed US government “shutdown” over budget disagreements. Additional uncertainty was fueled by trade threats against Canada over its potential rapprochement with China, despite Ottawa’s efforts to de-escalate the situation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) stabilized near 1.37 against the US dollar, halting its rally near monthly highs amid a balance of supporting and restraining factors. On the one hand, the currency continues to be supported by rising oil prices, driven by a supply crunch in high-sulfur fuel amid slowing exports from Russia, disruptions in key US regions, and lower shipments from Venezuela to China. On the other hand, further upside potential is limited by rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Pressure on CAD resumed following President Trump’s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports should Ottawa pursue closer ties with China.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) climbed 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.05% yesterday. Despite recent easing of concerns about US rhetoric on Greenland and the risk of a transatlantic trade conflict, the broader geopolitical backdrop remained tense. Macro data from Germany provided no surprises: the Ifo Business Climate Index remained at 87.6 in January, missing expectations for growth.

On Tuesday, Silver (XAG) prices surged by more than 6%, climbing above $110 per ounce and continuing a record-breaking rally. The spike was driven by a combination of geopolitical and trade risks, alongside a reallocation of capital from sovereign bonds and currencies into precious metals as safe-haven assets. Market tension was further exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s statements about a possible tariff hike on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to delays in ratifying a trade agreement.

Palladium (XPD) prices rose above $2,000 per ounce, reaching a three-year high as supply concerns intensified due to heightened geopolitical risks. The primary catalyst was reports of potential 100% tariffs on Canadian goods in the event of its trade rapprochement with China, fueling fears of supply disruptions to North America, given Canada’s role as a major global producer. Additional market support came from a UBS forecast revision that raised price targets, citing steady investment inflows. Demand also strengthened in China following the launch of yuan-denominated platinum futures in Guangzhou, boosting interest in platinum group metals.

The US Natural Gas (XNG) prices soared by approximately 20%, exceeding $6.3 per MMBtu, marking a high since December 2022 and continuing an extreme rally driven by weather factors. Since the beginning of last week, the increase has exceeded 90%, following a record jump of nearly 70%, which was the strongest weekly gain since records began in 1990. Extreme cold has simultaneously hit supply and sharply increased demand for heating and electricity. Frigid weather knocked out about 10% of US gas production capacity, with average January production falling from December records and daily output dropping to two-year lows. Market focus remains on the duration of these production disruptions, as their prolonged nature could lead to further price increases.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a result of 0.13%. On Tuesday morning, Hong Kong and Chinese stocks continued to rise. Support was broad-based, with the largest contribution coming from the financial sector, which grew by about 2% after Beijing announced intentions to deepen the integration of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong financial markets. Further positive sentiment was provided by Chinese macro data: industrial profits in 2025 grew by 0.6% year-on-year, a notable acceleration from the 0.1% growth recorded during the January-November period.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,950.23 +34.62 (+0.50%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,412.40 +313.69 (+0.64%)

DAX (DE40) 24,933.08 +32.37 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,148.85 +5.41 (+0.053%)

USD Index 97.07 -0.53% (-0.55%)

News feed for: 2026.01.27

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 Jan

USD/JPY on Pause: Yen Slows After Sharp Rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY settled at 154.29 on Tuesday, with the yen pausing its rally after a notable surge of nearly 3.2% in the previous two sessions. This move was driven by growing concerns about a possible coordinated currency intervention between Japan and the US.

The market was boosted by news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had requested USD/JPY levels from dealers on Friday. At the same time, Japanese officials confirmed that they were in close communication with the US on currency policy and potential market actions.

However, Bank of Japan (BoJ) data suggested that the sharp yen appreciation on Friday was unlikely to be due to direct intervention. This speculation intensified the market’s reaction and speculative positioning.

The yen continued to receive support from the broader weakness of the US dollar, driven by rising geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, as well as expectations that US President Donald Trump might replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with a softer candidate, further pressuring the US currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a correction wave following the previous decline. A continuation of the growth wave to the 155.00 level is possible today. After this rise, a rebound from the resistance level is expected, with the first target for a further decline at 153.00, followed by 152.00. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as the histogram is below zero and rising, with the signal line likely to cross the histogram and turn upwards soon.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is testing the 153.80 mark and forming a growth wave. If the price tests the 155.00 level and rebounds, further declines could be expected, with the first support at 153.00 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this, as its signal lines continue to decline towards the 50.0 level. A break of this level would signal a continuation of the downward trend.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has paused its rapid ascent amid speculation of potential currency intervention. Despite a weaker US dollar and geopolitical risks, the yen’s recent strength is being tested. Technically, while the immediate outlook points to a possible short-term rise to 155.00, a rebound and subsequent decline towards 153.00 could be on the horizon, depending on how market sentiment evolves.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Jan

Silver Surges Past $108 for the First Time. Natural Gas Hits $6/MMBtu

By JustMarkets

On Friday, US stock markets closed mixed. The Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.58% (-0.74% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) edged up 0.03% (-0.65% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) gained 0.34% (-0.41% for the week). Energy companies led the day’s gains, and the technology segment was bolstered by Nvidia (+1.5%) and AMD (+2.3%) following signals from China regarding potential orders for H200 AI chips. Conversely, a sharp 17% drop in Intel shares, triggered by a weak forecast and news of operational challenges, weighed on the semiconductor sector and pulled down Broadcom, limiting overall gains. Macroeconomic data provided a conflicting picture: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised upward to a multi-month high, yet preliminary S&P Global PMIs pointed to a moderate slowdown in both services and manufacturing.

Geopolitical tensions escalated as US President Donald Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs on all exports to the US if Ottawa moves forward with a trade agreement with China, labeling such a move a “strategic error.” This follows Canada’s recent steps toward Beijing, including agreements to increase Chinese EV imports. Prime Minister Mark Carney stated he expects China to lower tariffs on Canadian canola following his recent meeting with Xi Jinping, the first visit by a Canadian leader to Beijing in eight years.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened past the 17.4 mark against the dollar, returning to its June 2024 highs after a brief correction. Previously, the currency faced pressure from a global flight to safety amid US-Europe trade frictions sparked by Trump’s statements on Greenland. The peso’s recovery highlights its fundamental resilience, supported by the Bank of Mexico’s hawkish stance. The suspension of the easing cycle, with the key rate held at 7%, provides attractive real yields and continues to draw foreign investor interest into local debt instruments.

European equity markets mostly trended lower on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18% (-0.16% for the week), while France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell 0.07% (+0.22% for the week). Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.67% (+0.23% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.07% (-0.90% for the week). In a sudden pivot at the Davos conference, President Trump temporarily walked back threats of tariffs against European countries that opposed the US acquisition of Greenland, citing a “framework deal” with NATO. While this eased immediate political tension, uncertainty regarding Washington’s long-term strategy remains. Macro data showed steady private-sector expansion in the Eurozone, as reflected in PMIs, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain its current policy.

Silver (XAG) made history by breaking the $ 108-per-ounce threshold, driven by a weakening dollar, geopolitical strife, and economic uncertainty. The US dollar came under pressure as markets worried Europe might leverage its vast US assets in response to the Greenland crisis. Beyond macro factors, silver’s rally was fueled by a massive short squeeze, robust retail demand, and China’s tightening of export controls on industrial metals.

On Monday, US Natural Gas prices (XNG) surged by over 17%, exceeding $6/MMBtu for the first time since late 2022, as a historic winter storm gripped the nation. Prices have nearly doubled in the last two weeks, the largest gain on record, due to forecasts for sustained arctic temperatures. Inventory reports showed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 120 billion cubic feet, and analysts anticipate further drawdowns as heating demand intensifies.
Asian markets showed mixed performance last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.86%, while the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.99%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed the week down 0.27%.

The Singapore dollar (SGD) has strengthened to approximately 1.27 against the US dollar, marking its highest level since October 2014. This appreciation is fueled by capital inflows into safe-haven assets and market expectations that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will maintain its current policy stance. The currency remains in steady demand due to its “safe haven” status, underpinned by Singapore’s AAA-rated bond market, high stock market dividend yields, and predictable economic policy amid heightened global uncertainty.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,915.61 +2.26 (+0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,098.71 −285.30 (−0.58%)

DAX (DE40) 24,900.71 +44.24 (+0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,143.44 −6.61 (−0.07%)

USD Index 97.46 -0.90% (-0.92%)

News feed for: 2026.01.26

  • German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
26 Jan

Gold Surges Above 5,000 USD: Safe-Haven Demand Explodes

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold has broken through the historic 5,000 USD per troy ounce mark, rising above 5,075 USD for the first time. The metal continues its record rally as investors aggressively shift into defensive assets amid escalating trade and geopolitical uncertainty.

The main catalyst was renewed rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. Over the weekend, he stated that Washington would seek sovereignty over parts of Greenland where US military bases are located. These comments reignited market anxiety, coming just days after a temporary easing of tariff threats against several European countries.

Further pressure on global markets followed Trump’s warning to Canada. He stated that all Canadian exports to the US could face 100% tariffs if Ottawa finalises a trade agreement with China. The statement came a week after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a preliminary deal with Beijing, which involves a mutual reduction in tariffs.

Geopolitical risks also remain elevated. Ukraine and Russia held another round of US-mediated talks without reaching an agreement, although both sides signalled readiness to continue negotiations next weekend.

As a result, rising geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade threats have sharply increased capital inflows into gold, further strengthening its role as the primary global safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAUUSD chart, gold has confidently broken above 5,000 and is now developing a strong bullish wave towards the 5,215 level. After reaching this area, a corrective pullback towards 5,000 is possible. The MACD confirms strong upside momentum, with the signal line at highs and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the price has broken and consolidated above the 5,050 level, which is acting as support. The trend is expected to extend towards 5,200. The Stochastic oscillator supports this bullish scenario, with the signal line above 50 and continuing to rise.

Conclusion

Gold has entered a new historical phase above 5,000 USD, driven by escalating geopolitical risks and aggressive US trade rhetoric. As long as uncertainty around global politics and trade persists, gold is likely to remain strongly supported, with further upside potential despite the risk of short-term technical corrections.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
25 Jan

Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to 58-Week High

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,835 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,595 contracts), the British Pound (3,290 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (465 contracts), the Japanese Yen (335 contracts), Bitcoin (229 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (185 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-20,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,688 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-759 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-233 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the Currency Market Speculator Positions this week were the AUD, MXN, Euro & Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar speculative bets lead off the highlights this week as the AUD bets rose for an eighth consecutive week. Over this eight-week span, the Aussie Dollar speculative net position has improved by over 70,000 contracts. Despite that improvement, the Australian Dollar net position remains in bearish territory at -14,011 net positions at this time. This is actually the best standing for the Australian dollar speculative bets since all the way back to December of 2024, a span of 58 consecutive weeks that this currency has been in a bearish net position. The Australian Dollar, in the currency markets, has been on the rise and jumped this week by over 3%. It is now up by over 12% since January of 2025. Currently trading around 0.6887, the AUD is at its highest level since September of 2024 and with further upside momentum, we could see a challenge of the 0.70 significant psychological level soon.

Coming up next is the Mexican Peso, which saw speculator bets rise this week for the fourth time in the past five weeks, and for the tenth time over the past 14 weeks. The Peso has been in an overall bullish position for approximately one year now, dating back to January 21st of 2025. Peso positions have been gaining steadily over the past 52 weeks and have now been above the +100,000 net contract level for five consecutive weeks and for six out of the last seven weeks, indicating the strong sentiment for the MXN at this time. The Peso exchange rate is on a strong uptrend at the moment versus the US Dollar, and has seen a strong monthly gain to start the new year with gains in eight out of the last nine weeks. The MXN is now at the highest price level  since June of 2024 and is up by over 20% in the last 52 weeks.

The Euro common currency’s speculative bets fell sharply for a second consecutive week, and have now declined by over -50,000 contracts in just the past two weeks. However, the Euro has been in a super strong position and indicates a likely profit-taking dip as the net speculative contracts have been above the +100,000 net contract level for 28 out of the last 32 weeks, including for the last eight consecutive weeks. The Euro currency closed out this week above the 1.18 level in the forex market after hitting support last week and rebounding off of the 1.1620 area. What a difference a year makes as last January, the Euro currency was trading around just 1.0250. And since then, the currency has risen by about 15%. Time will tell if the Euro can break above the 1.1865 resistance area that has stopped its ascent multiple times since June.

The US Dollar Index position dropped this week by over -2,500 contracts after seeing seven straight weeks of gains previously. The US Dollar Index net positions have now been in an overall bearish level for the past 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. The Dollar Index price has been on a strong downtrend for the past year and this week closed under the 97.50 level with an almost 2% drop on the week.  Compared to last January, when this currency was trading around the 1.09 to 1.10 levels, USD Index is now currently lower by approximately 11%.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance led by NZD & AUD

The best returning currency this week was the New Zealand Dollar which showed a 3.36% gain, while the Australian Dollar came in at a similar 3.13% rise over these past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 2.74%, followed by the British Pound with a 1.92% gain and the Euro with a 1.91% gain. The Brazilian Real was higher by 1.60%, while the Canadian Dollar was up by 1.59%. The Mexican Peso rose by 1.4%, and the Japanese Yen showed an increase by 1.45%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index dropped by -1.90% over these past five days while Bitcoin saw the biggest decline with a -6.23% drop.

The leaders over the past 30 days are the Mexican Peso, with a gain of approximately 4% over that time, with a 3.8% rise, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 3.45%. The Peso and the Australian Dollar also lead the past 90 days percent changes, with the Peso up by 5.7% over that time and the Australian Dollar higher by 4.26%.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (82 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), Australian Dollar (66 percent) and Bitcoin (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and the British Pound (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (34.1 percent)
EuroFX (71.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (30.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (76.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (66.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (62.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (82.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.9 percent)
Bitcoin (59.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.2 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (23 percent), the US Dollar Index (20 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-17 percent), EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (20.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.7 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (22.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-29.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-10.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.130.59.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.89.29.0
– Net Position:-6,4186,305113
– Gross Longs:16,0039,0232,762
– Gross Shorts:22,4212,7182,649
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 13.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.873.835.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.1-19.9-2.0

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 111,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.255.410.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.673.15.6
– Net Position:111,695-155,59643,901
– Gross Longs:275,235488,16692,941
– Gross Shorts:163,540643,76249,040
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.328.267.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.311.6-14.6

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.243.816.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.835.613.7
– Net Position:-21,98017,0824,898
– Gross Longs:81,33291,02333,243
– Gross Shorts:103,31273,94128,345
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.366.966.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.7-26.235.5

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.639.514.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.925.413.5
– Net Position:-44,82941,1403,689
– Gross Longs:107,139115,58343,047
– Gross Shorts:151,96874,44339,358
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.461.346.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.114.97.9

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.573.314.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.524.419.0
– Net Position:-43,20747,972-4,765
– Gross Longs:12,25771,87313,860
– Gross Shorts:55,46423,90118,625
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.377.758.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.38.8-3.5

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.856.213.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.434.715.0
– Net Position:-41,78545,990-4,205
– Gross Longs:59,456120,14227,744
– Gross Shorts:101,24174,15231,949
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.230.533.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:43.8-40.810.9

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.243.618.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.348.77.3
– Net Position:-14,011-11,78725,798
– Gross Longs:85,759100,60842,698
– Gross Shorts:99,770112,39516,900
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.422.9100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.7-33.917.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.879.44.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.324.65.3
– Net Position:-49,61050,811-1,201
– Gross Longs:13,67073,6193,742
– Gross Shorts:63,28022,8084,943
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.291.236.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-8.76.9

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.932.43.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.379.11.2
– Net Position:107,153-111,9384,785
– Gross Longs:153,39877,7737,650
– Gross Shorts:46,245189,7112,865
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.417.649.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.1-0.65.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.026.95.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.353.01.2
– Net Position:17,641-21,2653,624
– Gross Longs:53,73021,9114,628
– Gross Shorts:36,08943,1761,004
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.5 to 14.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.846.141.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.027.66.3

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.83.85.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.65.64.6
– Net Position:298-445147
– Gross Longs:19,8419401,285
– Gross Shorts:19,5431,3851,138
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.046.745.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7-2.23.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
25 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium & Russell-2000 lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Steel speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 20 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 11,671 net contracts this week with an increase by 649 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Palladium

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Palladium speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Palladium speculator level is now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the strength score was a rise by 6 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position registered 888 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -337 contracts in speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Russell speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a strong boost of 33 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 20,563 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,126 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

Extreme Bullish Leader
The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is also at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an increase by 8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 24,569 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,784 contracts in the speculator bets.

Copper

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Copper speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Copper speculator level sits at na 82 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -9 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 52,575 net contracts this week with a decline of -866 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

Natural Gas

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Natural Gas speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Natural Gas speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -61 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was -193,490 contracts this week with a decrease of -7,889 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -14 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -17,874 net contracts this week with a decrease of -8,378 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was small bump up by 1 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -178,348 net contracts this week with a slide by -12,637 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the NZD speculator level sitting at an 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain by 8 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -49,610 net contracts this week with a change of -759 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Extreme Bearish Leader
The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at just a 13 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 7 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 78,792 net contracts this week with a boost by 20,664 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions
25 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals markets was Steel with an increase by 649 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-6,846 contracts), Gold (-6,468 contracts), Platinum (-2,470 contracts), Copper (-866 contracts) and with Palladium (-337 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Day Metals Market Price Performance led by Platinum

Platinum leads the past five days metals price performance as Platinum shot up by over 20%, followed by Palladium which jumped by 13.10% over that same period. Silver continued its hot streak with 11.51% gains over the past five days, followed by Gold with a rise of 8.19%. Steel was also up by 5.3% in that timeframe. Copper was the only market on the downside this week, with a minor dip by -0.68%.

The metals markets have been raging higher over the past 30 days, with Silver up by over 68%, followed by Platinum, which has seen a 67.39% gain in 30 days. Palladium is up by 37% in the past 30 days, while gold has run 18% higher and Copper is up by approximately 12%. Steel rounds out the past 30 days leaders with an approximately 10% gain.

The leaders over the past 90 days have been Silver, with a 139% gain, followed by Platinum, which is up by over 103%. Palladium has seen a 75% gain in the past 90 days, followed by Gold with a 35% rise, Copper with a 25% rise, and Steel is up over 40% in that same time. Truly an unprecedented time for metals strength.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (98 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores with Gold (71.1 percent) following.

On the lower side, Silver (44 percent) and Platinum (49 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels of the metals currently although both markets are right around the midpoint for the past 3-years (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (71.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (73.7 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.2 percent)
Copper (82.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (83.0 percent)
Platinum (48.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.0 percent)
Palladium (97.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (20 percent) and Gold (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-26 percent), Platinum (-12 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.8 percent)
Silver (-26.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.6 percent)
Copper (-9.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.0 percent)
Palladium (6.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.4 percent)
Steel (19.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (27.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 244,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.016.311.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.771.13.3
– Net Position:244,770-289,68944,919
– Gross Longs:295,77285,86962,136
– Gross Shorts:51,002375,55817,217
– Long to Short Ratio:5.8 to 10.2 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.120.197.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.6-10.918.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.328.823.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.759.39.5
– Net Position:25,214-46,38921,175
– Gross Longs:42,96543,72335,608
– Gross Shorts:17,75190,11214,433
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.049.269.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.018.027.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.530.98.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.655.83.0
– Net Position:52,575-69,18616,611
– Gross Longs:101,63186,07724,890
– Gross Shorts:49,056155,2638,279
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.210.8100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.26.015.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.325.113.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.152.74.9
– Net Position:15,124-21,7826,658
– Gross Longs:39,70919,86710,541
– Gross Shorts:24,58541,6493,883
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.850.375.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.99.014.2

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.328.517.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.742.97.4
– Net Position:888-2,7621,874
– Gross Longs:9,6445,4573,301
– Gross Shorts:8,7568,2191,427
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.80.884.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-6.44.7

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.958.11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.890.40.5
– Net Position:11,671-12,098427
– Gross Longs:14,23521,805611
– Gross Shorts:2,56433,903184
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.6 to 13.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.089.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.6-20.533.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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