On Monday, the US stock indices posted solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.50%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.43%. Growth was driven primarily by the technology and communication services sectors: shares of Apple, Meta, and Microsoft strengthened significantly ahead of their financial results, whereas the consumer goods sector lagged due to a decline in Tesla stock. Market focus shifted to Wednesday’s Fed meeting and speculation about the potential appointment of a new Chairman, as well as the risk of a renewed US government “shutdown” over budget disagreements. Additional uncertainty was fueled by trade threats against Canada over its potential rapprochement with China, despite Ottawa’s efforts to de-escalate the situation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) stabilized near 1.37 against the US dollar, halting its rally near monthly highs amid a balance of supporting and restraining factors. On the one hand, the currency continues to be supported by rising oil prices, driven by a supply crunch in high-sulfur fuel amid slowing exports from Russia, disruptions in key US regions, and lower shipments from Venezuela to China. On the other hand, further upside potential is limited by rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Pressure on CAD resumed following President Trump’s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports should Ottawa pursue closer ties with China.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) climbed 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.05% yesterday. Despite recent easing of concerns about US rhetoric on Greenland and the risk of a transatlantic trade conflict, the broader geopolitical backdrop remained tense. Macro data from Germany provided no surprises: the Ifo Business Climate Index remained at 87.6 in January, missing expectations for growth.

On Tuesday, Silver (XAG) prices surged by more than 6%, climbing above $110 per ounce and continuing a record-breaking rally. The spike was driven by a combination of geopolitical and trade risks, alongside a reallocation of capital from sovereign bonds and currencies into precious metals as safe-haven assets. Market tension was further exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s statements about a possible tariff hike on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to delays in ratifying a trade agreement.

Palladium (XPD) prices rose above $2,000 per ounce, reaching a three-year high as supply concerns intensified due to heightened geopolitical risks. The primary catalyst was reports of potential 100% tariffs on Canadian goods in the event of its trade rapprochement with China, fueling fears of supply disruptions to North America, given Canada’s role as a major global producer. Additional market support came from a UBS forecast revision that raised price targets, citing steady investment inflows. Demand also strengthened in China following the launch of yuan-denominated platinum futures in Guangzhou, boosting interest in platinum group metals.

The US Natural Gas (XNG) prices soared by approximately 20%, exceeding $6.3 per MMBtu, marking a high since December 2022 and continuing an extreme rally driven by weather factors. Since the beginning of last week, the increase has exceeded 90%, following a record jump of nearly 70%, which was the strongest weekly gain since records began in 1990. Extreme cold has simultaneously hit supply and sharply increased demand for heating and electricity. Frigid weather knocked out about 10% of US gas production capacity, with average January production falling from December records and daily output dropping to two-year lows. Market focus remains on the duration of these production disruptions, as their prolonged nature could lead to further price increases.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a result of 0.13%. On Tuesday morning, Hong Kong and Chinese stocks continued to rise. Support was broad-based, with the largest contribution coming from the financial sector, which grew by about 2% after Beijing announced intentions to deepen the integration of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong financial markets. Further positive sentiment was provided by Chinese macro data: industrial profits in 2025 grew by 0.6% year-on-year, a notable acceleration from the 0.1% growth recorded during the January-November period.