InvestMacro

06 Feb

Crude bulls lean on 71.99 weekly support

By ForexTime

Crude oil bullish on W1 timeframe

Strong support level found at 71.99

Stochastic Oscillator bullish

4 potential targets on H4 timeframe

Bullish scenario invalidated below 71.39

Crude oil prices dropped like a rock last week as a correction wave in the current uptrend played out on the weekly charts.

Prices have found bullish backing on a strong weekly support level at 71.99 with demand potentially picking up from there.

On the daily chart, we can see the fractal nature of the market in action and the weekly correction wave shows a down trend on the daily chart. Here a new correction wave is in progress in the current down trend. Conservative traders might wait for a daily market structure to change before looking for opportunities, while more aggressive traders might consider a long opportunity off the weekly support level. This can be explored further on the 4-hour chart.

On the 4-hour chart, a magnificent downtrend can be seen, stretching from the weekly resistance level at 76.88, all the way down to the weekly support level at 71.99. The bears made a last lower bottom and currently, the bulls are keeping the price above the weekly support level, with a possible early stage of a new uptrend on the books.

The price broke the downtrend and the shorter price cycle Stochastics Oscillator confirms the bullish momentum, but the longer price cycle Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Oscillator warns that there might still be a re-test of the weekly support level.

If the price reaches the 73.34 level, a long opportunity becomes possible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 73.34 and dragging it to the last lower bottom at 71.39, four conservative targets can be determined:

Target 1: 74.12

Target 2: 74.51

Target 3: 75.29

Target 4: 76.27

If the price breaks past the 71.39 level, this opportunity is no longer likely, and a short opportunity might become possible from a 4-hour market structure point of view.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Financial News

05 Feb

Understanding Meta’s 0.4% Yield and Its Growth Potential

By Ino.com | Source: Understanding Meta’s 0.4% Yield and Its Growth Potential

Dividend-loving investors worldwide woke up with exciting news on Friday, as Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) announced its first-ever quarterly dividend and authorized a $50 billion share buyback program.

The company will pay a cash dividend of 50 cents per share on March 26 to shareholders of record as of February 22, joining other peers, including Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and Oracle Corporation (ORCL), which have regular payouts. META’s board intends to issue a cash dividend on a quarterly basis.

“Introducing a dividend just gives us a more balanced capital return program and some added flexibility in how we return capital in the future,” Meta’s Chief Financial Officer Susan Li told analysts on its earnings call.

META’s annual dividend of $2 translates to a yield of 0.4% at the prevailing share price. The stock finished nearly 20% higher to $474.99 on Friday after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings.

The average yield for a dividend-paying stock in the S&P 500 is nearly 2%. Meta’s dividend payout is lower than that rate; however, companies generally start small. Now, investors can look forward to its dividend growth and stock gains.

Looking at Microsoft, the company initiated its cash dividend on January 16, 2003. Its annual dividend was $0.08 per share, which resulted in a yield of about 0.3%. A year following the dividend declaration, MSFT’s stock was up 10%, and the annual dividend for 2024 was raised to $0.16. Currently, the company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.75.

Talking about Apple, it stopped paying cash dividends in 1995 but then declared again in January 2013. Adjusting for all the splits, cash dividends in 2013 translated to an annualized yield of nearly 1.4%. A year after the dividend restart, AAPL’s stock was approximately 24% up as the company continued payouts. Since the restart, Apple has paid a total of around $34 per share.

Dividends are typically welcomed by shareholders and signal management’s confidence about the company’s future growth. Moreover, initial dividend payouts open up to investors who only hold stock in dividend payers.

Further, Meta’s recently released report marked the fourth quarter of the company’s self-described “year of efficiency,” which founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced in February 2023. The company’s turnaround strategy involved layoffs and other cuts to spending, which in turn ended up being a successful effort to reverse the previous year’s revenue declines and share price weakness.

Outstanding Last Reported Financials

For the fourth quarter that ended December 31, 2023, META reported revenue of $39.17 billion, an increase of 24.7% year-over-year. The revenue surpassed analysts’ estimate of $40.11 billion. The company’s revenue from the Advertising segment grew 23.8% year-over-year, and its revenue from the Family of Apps segment rose 24.2%.

Meanwhile, META’s total costs and expenses reduced by 7.9% year-over-year to $23.73 billion. Its operating margin more than doubled to 41%, a clear sign that several cost-cutting measures are boosting profitability.

Facebook parent Meta’s income from operations rose 156% from the prior year’s period to $16.38 billion. Its net income increased 201.3% from the year-ago value to $14.02 billion. The company posted earnings per share attributable to Class A and Class B common stockholders of $5.33, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.76, and up 202.8% year-over-year.

As of December 31, 2023, META’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $41.86 billion, compared to $14.68 billion as of December 31, 2022. The company’s total assets were $229.62 billion versus $185.73 billion as of December 31, 2022.

Family daily active people (DAP) came in at 3.19 billion on average for December 2023, up 8% year-over-year. Family monthly activity people (MAP) was 3.98 billion as of December 31, 2023, an increase of 6% year-over-year.

Also, Facebook daily active users (DAUs) and Facebook monthly active users (MAUs) were 2.11 billion on average and 3.07 billion as of December 31, 2023, up 6% and 3% year-over-year, respectively.

As of December 31, 2023, the tech giant completed the data center initiatives and the employee layoffs, along with the facilities consolidation initiatives. META’s headcount was 67,317 at the end of the year 2023, a decline of 22% year-over-year.

“We had a good quarter as our community and business continue to grow,” said CEO Zuckerberg. “We’ve made a lot of progress on our vision for advancing AI and the metaverse.”

Fiscal 2024 Outlook

For the first quarter of 2024, META expects total revenue to be in the range of $34.50-37 billion. For the full year 2024, the management expects total expenses to be in the range of $94-99 billion, unchanged from the previous outlook.

The company anticipates full-year capital expenditures to be in the range of $30-37 billion, an increase of $2 billion in the high end of its prior range. Meta expects growth to be driven by investments in servers, including AI and non-AI hardware and data centers, and it plans to ramp up construction on sites with its previously announced new data center architecture.

META’s updated outlook reflects its evolving understanding of its AI capacity demands as the company anticipates what will be needed for the next generations of foundational research and product development.

Ramping up Efforts in AI and Metaverse

Meta is making consistent efforts to secure its place in the increasing AI arms race. Last month, CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that META plans to build its own artificial general intelligence, known as AGI, which is artificial intelligence that meets or exceeds human intelligence in almost every area. He added that the company further plans to open it up to developers.

In a video posted to Meta’s social network Threads, Zuckerberg said building the best AI for chatbots, creators, and businesses requires enhanced advancement in AI across the board. “Our long term vision is to build general intelligence, open source it responsibly, and make it widely available so everyone can benefit,” he said in a post on Threads.

The tech giant announced building out its infrastructure to accommodate this push to get AI into products, and it planned to have about 350,000 H100 GPUs (graphics processing units) from chip designer NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) by the end of this year. In combination with equivalent chips from other suppliers, Meta will have around 600,000 total GPUs by the end of the year, Zuckerberg said.

He added that the company plans to grow and bring its two major AI research groups – FAIR and GenAI – together to accelerate its work. He further said he believes that Meta’s vision for AI and the AR/VR-driven metaverse are connected.

“By the end of the decade, I think lots of people will talk to AIs frequently throughout the day using smart glasses like what we’re building with Ray Ban Meta.”

Mark Zuckerberg’s recent announcement is one of the company’s biggest pledges to double down on AI. Earlier last year, after the viral success of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Zuckerberg announced that Meta is creating a new “top-level product group” to “turbocharge” the company’s work on AI tools.

Since then, Meta has introduced tools and information aimed at assisting users understand how AI influences what they see on its apps. The company has launched a commercial version of its Llama large language model (LLM), ad tools that can generate image backgrounds from text prompts, and a “Meta AI” chatbot that can be accessed directly via its Ray-Ban smart glasses.

In his posts last month, Meta CEO said the company is currently training a third version of the Liama model.

Impressive Historical Growth

Over the past three years, META’s revenue and EBITDA grew at CAGRs of 16.2% and 15%, respectively. The company’s net income and EPS rose at respective CAGRs of 10.3% and 13.8% over the same timeframe. Its levered free cash flow improved at 25.6% CAGR over the same period.

Moreover, the social networking company’s total assets increased at a CAGR of 13% over the same timeframe.

Favorable Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect META’s revenue for the first quarter (ending March 2024) to grow 25.3% year-over-year to $35.88 billion. The consensus EPS estimate of $4.25 for the ongoing quarter indicates a 93.3% year-over-year increase. Moreover, Meta has topped consensus revenue and EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, which is remarkable.

Furthermore, Street expects Meta’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year (ending December 2024) to grow 17.3% and 32.4% year-over-year to $158.20 billion and $19.69, respectively. For the fiscal year 2025, the company’s revenue and EPS are expected to increase 11.2% and 15.3% from the previous year to $175.98 billion and $22.70, respectively.

Solid Profitability

META’s trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 80.72% is 64.5% higher than the 49.07% industry average. Likewise, the stock’s trailing-12-month EBIT margin and net income margin of 36.33% and 28.98% are considerably higher than the industry averages of 8.47% and 3.50%, respectively.

In addition, the stock’s trailing-12-month ROCE, ROTC, and ROTA of 28.04%, 17.84% and 17.03% favorably compared to the respective industry averages of 4.09%, 3.52%, and 1.43%. Also, its trailing-12-month levered FCF margin of 23.52% is 202.7% higher than the industry average of 7.77%.

Bottom Line

Facebook parent META recently reported a big beat on earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. The company, which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, also announced its first-ever dividend of $0.50 per share and authorized a $50 billion share buyback program. Dividends generally signal management’s confidence about the company’s future growth.

Moreover, Meta’s market capitalization last month surpassed $1 trillion. The company last exceeded this mark in the market cap in 2021, when it was still known as Facebook.

Meta’s “year of efficiency” and several cost-cutting measures paid off in a significant way and offered a sweetener for investors, sending its shares higher. The stock is up nearly 38% over the past month and has gained more than 150% over the past year.

2023 was a pivotal year for the social networking giant, where it raised its operating discipline, delivered solid execution across its product priorities, and significantly improved ad performance for the businesses that rely on its services. In 2024, the company further seems well-positioned to build on its progress in each of these areas while advancing its ambitious efforts in AI and Reality Labs.

Given META’s robust financials, accelerating profitability, dividend initiation, and solid growth outlook, primarily as it seeks to strengthen its position in AI, it could be wise to invest in this stock now.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Opinions Stock Market News

05 Feb

Powell promises that the US Fed will move slower than the market expects. Tensions persist in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.35% (+1.41% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.07% yesterday (+1.34% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.74% (+1.02% for the week).

Friday’s economic news from the US was better than expected and favorable for the dollar. Non-farm payrolls for January rose by 353,000, which exceeded expectations of 185,000 and was the largest increase in a year. The unemployment rate for January was unchanged at 3.7%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 3.8%. In addition, average hourly earnings for January rose 0.6% m/m and 4.5% y/y, which was stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January was revised upward by 0.2 to a 2-year high of 79.0, exceeding expectations of 78.9.

In an interview on the “60 Minutes” program, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank will be cautious about cutting rates this year and will wait for more evidence that inflation is falling steadily to 2%. He added that the Fed is likely to act much more slowly than the market expects. Traders have now cut bets on a March rate cut to 20% and see total easing this year at 137 basis points, down from 150 basis points at the end of last year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained by 0.35% (-0.04% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.05% on Friday (-0.66% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.48% on Friday (+1.25% for the week), and UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed by negative 0.09% (-0.26% for the week).

Trade data from Germany showed a sharper-than-expected decline in both exports and imports in the final month of 2023. The UK unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, the lowest since February through April 2023. A strong labor market could push back the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England, which is favorable for the British currency.

WTI crude futures consolidated above $72 a barrel on Monday after falling sharply last week as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Oil prices fell more than 7% last week as progress in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas eased fears of supply disruptions from the region. Fading expectations of an immediate interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and lingering concerns about China’s economic recovery also weighed on the outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the US said it would take further military action against Iranian-backed groups, raising tensions in the Middle East, though insisting it did not seek a wider conflict in the region.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 1.46% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 3.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 4.32%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 0.87%.

Asian equity markets mostly fell on Monday as strong US jobs data and another Powell rejection further undermined sentiment for a Fed rate cut. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks led the fall even after Chinese regulators vowed to prevent abnormal market swings. China’s overall Caixin PMI for January 2024 was 52.5, down from December’s 7-month high of 52.6, marking the 13th month of growth in private sector activity.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,958.61 +52.42 (+1.07%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,654.42 +134.58 (+0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 16,918.21 +59.17 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,615.54 −6.62 (−0.09%)

USD Index 103.05 +0.82 (+0.82%)

News feed for 2024.02.05:

– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Feb

USD Strengthens Following Strong Employment Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The US dollar has seen a significant increase in strength against the Euro, with the EUR/USD pair falling to 1.0770 by Monday morning. This movement is largely attributed to the recent release of robust employment sector reports in the US for January, which have shifted investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for January revealed an impressive increase of 353 thousand jobs, far exceeding the anticipated 187 thousand. Additionally, December’s NFP figures were revised upwards to 333 thousand. Average hourly earnings also saw a notable rise of 0.6% month-over-month, doubling the forecast. These indicators suggest mounting inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s plans to normalize interest rates.

The latest employment data effectively solidified market projections, especially after Federal Reserve officials indicated that a rate cut in March was unlikely, with adjustments possibly being postponed until May.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The H4 chart analysis of EUR/USD indicates that a corrective wave reaching 1.0896 has concluded. The market is now in the midst of a downward trend aiming for 1.0722. Upon achieving this target, a potential corrective movement to 1.0808 might occur, serving as a test from below, before the trend resumes its descent towards 1.0682. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which is positioned below zero and indicates a continued downward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD pair has established a consolidation range around 1.0808. Following a downward breakout, the declining wave is expected to proceed towards 1.0722. After reaching this milestone, a correction back to 1.0808 could be anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50, suggests a potential climb to 80 before a decline to 20, reinforcing the bearish scenario outlined.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Feb

Trade Of The Week: AUDUSD bears to keep upper hand?

By ForexTime

AUD down against most G10 YTD

RBA decision + US data in focus

AUDUSD bearish on D1 chart

Strong USD could spell more pain

Key level of interest at 0.6550

The past few weeks have certainly been rough and rocky for the Australian dollar!

It has weakened against almost every single G10 currency so far in 2024, shedding over 4.5% versus the dollar.

After closing almost 1% lower last Friday following the blow-out NFP report (that saw 353k US jobs added in January), the AUDUSD has entered the new week on a shaky note. It is worth noting that the commodity currency was already pressured by growth concerns and signs of falling inflation in Australia.

With the dollar set to appreciate as investors claw back bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts, this could mean more pain for Aussie.

Here are 3 reasons why the AUDUSD is on our radar:

RBA decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its February 6th policy meeting, keeping the cash rate at 4.35%.

Signs of rapidly cooling inflationary pressures in the final quarter of 2023 have reinforced bets around the central bank’s next move being a rate cut. This development coupled with the shaky economic outlook could lend RBA doves further support.

Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a rate cut by the RBA in June with a cut fully priced in by August 2024.

The Aussie is likely to weaken if the RBA strikes a dovish tone and signals that it’s next move will be a cut this year.
Should the RBA sound more hawkish and express intentions to keep rates higher for longer, this could push the Aussie higher.

Dollar volatility

Dollar volatility could be a key theme this week as investors not only digest last Friday’s strong US jobs data but prepare for more key data and speeches by Fed officials.

The biggest event risk may be the US CPI revisions published on Friday. As highlighted in our week ahead report, this could heavily influence expectations around Fed rate cuts if there are any major revisions.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 77% probability of a Fed rate cut by May with a cut fully priced in by June 2024.

These odds could look different by the end of the week depending on incoming data and Fed speeches.

Should overall data and Fed speeches boost the dollar, this may drag the AUDUSD lower.
If the dollar ends up weakening, the AUDUSD could experience a technical bounce.

Technical forces

Aussie bears are back in power after securing a daily close below the 0.6550 support. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. The trend is bearish but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are approaching oversold levels.

Sustained weakness below the 100-day SMA may encourage a decline towards 0.6430 and 0.6410, respectively.
Should prices push back above 0.6550, this could open a path towards the 200-day SMA at 0.6570.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

Week 5: Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through January 30th.

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (6,063 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (5,294 contracts), British Pound (2,716 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,267 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (703 contracts) and the EuroFX (447 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-9,810 contracts) the Brazilian Real (-5,452 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,175 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,275 contracts) and Bitcoin (-137 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

See full article…

Weekly Market Price Changes

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds, Cocoa Futures & Coffee lead weekly price gains

Name	PctChg_5_Days
Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds	7.68
Cocoa Futures	7.16
Coffee	3.88
VIX	3.20
US Treasury Bond	2.55
Lean Hogs	2.02
Bitcoin	1.98
Nikkei 225	1.53
S&P500 Mini	1.26
Live Cattle	1.14

Steel, Gasoline & WTI Crude Oil lead the price declines

Name	PctChg_5_Days
Steel	-9.94
Gasoline	-7.97
WTI Crude Oil	-7.55
Brent Oil	-6.86
Natural Gas	-3.68
Heating Oil	-2.95
Platinum	-2.45
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-2.38
Soybean Oil	-2.00
Wheat	-1.76

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.

COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: DowJones, Nasdaq, Soybeans & Corn lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…

COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…

COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher speculator contracts. See full article…

COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…

COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…

Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Blog Posts

04 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is recent the drop in sentiment for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions dropped for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The decline over the last three weeks is a total of -24,506 contracts that has taken the speculative level from -55,949 net contracts on January 9th to this week’s total at -80,455 net contracts. The current level is now at the most bearish standing since December 12th.

The yen had seen a respite from the negative speculative bets in December and January (going from -104,956 contracts on December 5th to -55,949 on January 9th) as market watchers had been expecting the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will eventually look to end its negative interest rate policy. However, the BOJ has largely maintained their interest rate policy and thrown cold water onto the yen bulls (possibly) premature hopes.

The yen exchange rate (versus the US Dollar) has been on the back-foot now for four out of the past five weeks after having made gains through November and December. The US Dollar had fallen versus the yen and brought the USDJPY currency pair to the 140.25 mark in late December which was the best level for the yen since July. Since starting the new year, the yen has been declining and this week the USDJPY closed at approximately the 148.30 level – an almost 6 percent gain for the USD versus the yen since January 1st.

Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (88 percent) and the British Pound (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (58 percent), the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (35 percent) and the Bitcoin (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (24.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.9 percent)
EuroFX (58.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (77.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (52.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (52.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (88.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (85.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (65.3 percent)
Bitcoin (39.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.4 percent)

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the British Pound (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (8 percent), the Swiss Franc (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-11 percent), Japanese Yen (-9 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-26.9 percent)
EuroFX (-11.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-25.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (9.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (26.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-33.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-29.7 percent)
Bitcoin (8.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (6.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.0	15.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.5	18.3	9.8
– Net Position:	372	-739	367
– Gross Longs:	17,238	3,964	2,878
– Gross Shorts:	16,866	4,703	2,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	77.2	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	4.0	13.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 88,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	59.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	75.4	7.1
– Net Position:	88,771	-116,006	27,235
– Gross Longs:	200,360	432,311	78,589
– Gross Shorts:	111,589	548,317	51,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	45.8	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	11.1	-6.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	37.7	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	57.2	13.7
– Net Position:	34,153	-37,380	3,227
– Gross Longs:	77,499	72,532	29,604
– Gross Shorts:	43,346	109,912	26,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	24.8	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-5.6	-8.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	61.6	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	28.4	17.2
– Net Position:	-80,455	80,134	321
– Gross Longs:	44,918	148,972	41,873
– Gross Shorts:	125,373	68,838	41,552
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	68.8	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	10.3	-5.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	52.8	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	37.7	32.8
– Net Position:	-3,904	7,222	-3,318
– Gross Longs:	10,137	25,245	12,368
– Gross Shorts:	14,041	18,023	15,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	45.7	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-3.9	-1.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	54.4	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	57.1	16.0
– Net Position:	-2,388	-4,200	6,588
– Gross Longs:	39,101	86,763	32,032
– Gross Shorts:	41,489	90,963	25,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	48.9	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.6	-34.2	6.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,120 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	59.1	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.5	23.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-58,295	58,847	-552
– Gross Longs:	36,956	97,888	21,902
– Gross Shorts:	95,251	39,041	22,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	61.4	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	9.5	-12.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	45.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	45.9	8.8
– Net Position:	-1,040	-289	1,329
– Gross Longs:	14,114	16,682	4,588
– Gross Shorts:	15,154	16,971	3,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	44.0	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-3.9	-7.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 80,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	41.6	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	75.8	1.0
– Net Position:	80,393	-85,717	5,324
– Gross Longs:	132,808	103,931	7,803
– Gross Shorts:	52,415	189,648	2,479
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	10.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	0.6	16.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	38.1	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	64.4	1.6
– Net Position:	18,298	-20,424	2,126
– Gross Longs:	37,248	29,454	3,388
– Gross Shorts:	18,950	49,878	1,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	40.5	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	34.2	-15.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.9	6.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.6	1.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,798	1,017	781
– Gross Longs:	16,519	1,253	1,435
– Gross Shorts:	18,317	236	654
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	5.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	90.6	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-7.3	-6.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (21,325 contracts) with Silver (3,689 contracts), Platinum (3,208 contracts) and Palladium (917 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-21,683 contracts) with Steel (-255 contracts) also recording slightly lower bets for the week.

Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (43.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.8 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.5 percent)
Copper (24.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.2 percent)
Platinum (42.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.8 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.9 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets were in negative 6-week trends. Steel (-9 percent) had the least negative trend score over the past six weeks for metals while Gold (-24 percent) came in as the market with the largest negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.4 percent)
Silver (-12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.3 percent)
Copper (-12.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.3 percent)
Platinum (-12.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-15.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 147,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	27.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	66.9	5.3
– Net Position:	147,791	-170,518	22,727
– Gross Longs:	219,222	117,525	45,364
– Gross Shorts:	71,431	288,043	22,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	55.7	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	23.1	-9.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	30.3	22.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	58.0	10.1
– Net Position:	21,426	-37,778	16,352
– Gross Longs:	52,778	41,387	30,191
– Gross Shorts:	31,352	79,165	13,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	46.1	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.9	-15.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	39.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	36.4	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,598	7,271	1,327
– Gross Longs:	71,100	90,929	17,116
– Gross Shorts:	79,698	83,658	15,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	77.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.4	-4.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	23.9	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	46.8	4.6
– Net Position:	11,549	-17,074	5,525
– Gross Longs:	43,818	17,727	8,942
– Gross Shorts:	32,269	34,801	3,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	58.2	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	9.2	13.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	9.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-10,700	10,302	398
– Gross Longs:	4,927	12,574	2,065
– Gross Shorts:	15,627	2,272	1,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.4	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	9.2	55.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	83.1	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	75.1	1.0
– Net Position:	-2,187	1,982	205
– Gross Longs:	2,612	20,479	440
– Gross Shorts:	4,799	18,497	235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.2	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	9.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

03 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (14,068 contracts) with Live Cattle (10,882 contracts), Wheat (6,327 contracts), Sugar (6,129 contracts), Cotton (4,112 contracts) and Coffee (3,221 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-34,583 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,316 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,677 contracts), Cocoa (-4,062 contracts) and with Corn (-5,632 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cocoa

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.7 percent)
Sugar (17.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (15.0 percent)
Coffee (85.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (81.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (7.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.3 percent)
Live Cattle (19.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.1 percent)
Cotton (40.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (37.4 percent)
Cocoa (83.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (87.2 percent)
Wheat (42.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.8 percent)

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (27 percent) and Coffee (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (10 percent), Live Cattle (3 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-36 percent), Soybean Oil (-13 percent) and Corn (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.4 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (11.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.7 percent)
Soybeans (-36.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-31.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-50.0 percent)
Live Cattle (3.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.8 percent)
Cotton (26.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.1 percent)
Cocoa (2.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.6 percent)
Wheat (0.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -224,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -219,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	46.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	31.4	10.7
– Net Position:	-224,832	241,727	-16,895
– Gross Longs:	266,671	745,348	154,099
– Gross Shorts:	491,503	503,621	170,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.6	5.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	56.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	67.5	6.1
– Net Position:	73,684	-96,000	22,316
– Gross Longs:	178,443	478,435	74,201
– Gross Shorts:	104,759	574,435	51,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	80.0	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	5.8	0.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 56,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	35.1	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	61.0	3.4
– Net Position:	56,119	-58,218	2,099
– Gross Longs:	81,054	79,239	9,784
– Gross Shorts:	24,935	137,457	7,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	18.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.7	-1.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -140,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -34,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	60.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	39.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-140,577	155,822	-15,245
– Gross Longs:	77,880	453,583	49,226
– Gross Shorts:	218,457	297,761	64,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.4	35.8	-5.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	50.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	44.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-38,035	34,664	3,371
– Gross Longs:	99,948	289,600	32,569
– Gross Shorts:	137,983	254,936	29,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.8	-14.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	51.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	47.5	6.8
– Net Position:	-33,932	17,882	16,050
– Gross Longs:	72,409	247,263	48,670
– Gross Shorts:	106,341	229,381	32,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.2	46.3	-16.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	38.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	51.0	12.4
– Net Position:	37,214	-33,950	-3,264
– Gross Longs:	84,392	107,858	31,065
– Gross Shorts:	47,178	141,808	34,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.2	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-3.8	0.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	38.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	32.0	10.8
– Net Position:	-9,794	14,796	-5,002
– Gross Longs:	73,083	84,878	18,722
– Gross Shorts:	82,877	70,082	23,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	82.7	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-11.0	3.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	45.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	64.1	4.7
– Net Position:	42,278	-46,586	4,308
– Gross Longs:	72,535	114,657	16,124
– Gross Shorts:	30,257	161,243	11,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	58.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-26.9	24.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 71,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	26.0	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	49.2	4.1
– Net Position:	71,694	-76,000	4,306
– Gross Longs:	126,534	84,962	17,615
– Gross Shorts:	54,840	160,962	13,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	15.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.1	23.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	25.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-36,455	43,840	-7,385
– Gross Longs:	118,028	149,787	30,571
– Gross Shorts:	154,483	105,947	37,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	59.3	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.4	-4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (38,211 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (641 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-80,701 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-74,337 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-64,042 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-40,595 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-38,116 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-8,491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (35.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (96.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-24 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-24.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-15.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (6.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (2.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 705,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -64,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 769,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	50.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	57.5	0.3
– Net Position:	705,145	-701,186	-3,959
– Gross Longs:	2,012,056	5,282,698	28,810
– Gross Shorts:	1,306,911	5,983,884	32,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	3.3	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.7	1.0

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -156,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -80,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	70.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	61.7	2.0
– Net Position:	-156,080	169,562	-13,482
– Gross Longs:	213,115	1,419,260	27,738
– Gross Shorts:	369,195	1,249,698	41,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	65.8	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.9	0.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,307,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -38,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,268,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	83.1	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	53.4	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,307,001	1,167,338	139,663
– Gross Longs:	361,700	3,262,504	260,468
– Gross Shorts:	1,668,701	2,095,166	120,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	87.9	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.7	2.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,192,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 38,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	66.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-1,192,978	1,042,055	150,923
– Gross Longs:	474,604	4,958,885	426,265
– Gross Shorts:	1,667,582	3,916,830	275,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	78.6	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-14.6	0.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -859,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -74,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	62.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-859,015	810,792	48,223
– Gross Longs:	476,861	3,765,976	411,708
– Gross Shorts:	1,335,876	2,955,184	363,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	98.5	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	21.9	-0.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -40,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	75.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	62.3	13.7
– Net Position:	-179,110	280,254	-101,144
– Gross Longs:	298,951	1,591,383	186,641
– Gross Shorts:	478,061	1,311,129	287,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	87.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-12.1	-15.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -137,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	72.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	66.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-137,502	76,626	60,876
– Gross Longs:	174,607	1,031,332	206,676
– Gross Shorts:	312,109	954,706	145,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	40.6	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-8.6	16.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -330,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -331,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	80.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	60.8	9.2
– Net Position:	-330,468	317,381	13,087
– Gross Longs:	159,581	1,318,459	165,201
– Gross Shorts:	490,049	1,001,078	152,114
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	52.0	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	23.5	-7.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Crude oil prices dropped like a rock last week as a correction wave in the current uptrend played out on the weekly charts.

Target 1: 74.12

Target 2: 74.51

Target 3: 75.29

Target 4: 76.27

If the price breaks past the 71.39 level, this opportunity is no longer likely, and a short opportunity might become possible from a 4-hour market structure point of view.

The past few weeks have certainly been rough and rocky for the Australian dollar!

RBA decision

Dollar volatility

Technical forces

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Silver

Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cocoa

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend