Target Thursdays: USDJPY, Silver & Crude reach targets!

By ForexTime

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

  • USDJPY bulls lock in 80 pips
  • Silver up almost 3% this week
  • Crude hits all bullish targets   

 

    1) USDJPY rebound lends bulls support

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our Trade of The Week article on Monday 11th March:

We cautioned around the possibility of a “technical rebound” and highlighted how the USDJPY’s “14-day relative strength index (RSI) was already flirting with the 30 level”.

Note: When the 14-day RSI hits or goes below 30, this signals that prices are oversold.  

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

After failing to push lower, the USDJPY experienced a technical rebound on Tuesday thanks to the hotter-than-expected US inflation data.

This report cooled hopes around the Fed cutting interest rates in the coming months, boosting this dollar – which sent the USDJPY higher as a result.

Prices shot past the 147.20 resistance with the momentum briefly taking the currency pair above 148.00.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakout above 147.20 and exited at 148.00 would have been rewarded with 80 pips.

Note: The USDJPY could be injected with fresh volatility on Friday due to the results of Japan’s wage negotiations.

 

    2) Silver hits fresh 2024 high

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our article covering Silver on Wednesday, March 13th we maintained a bullish outlook for the precious metal due to technical forces.

“Silver is currently in a daily uptrend after breaking out of a ranging period…, if the price reaches the $24.676 level, a long scenario becomes feasible.”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Silver prices rallied higher, hitting a fresh 2024 high above $25 and gaining almost 3% since the start of the week.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

440 points for traders who bought silver at $24.676 and locked in profits at the second bullish price target at $25.116.

 

    3) Crude bulls enter the scene

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (Crude) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Oil prices initially rallied on Wednesday due to a surprise drop in U.S crude stockpiles and geopolitical risks concerning Ukraine/Russia.

The global commodity extended gains this morning (Thursday) after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply deficit throughout 2024.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Crude has hit all its profit targets.

Traders who entered at $79.49 and exited at the final target level of $79.83 would have gained 34 points.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Robo-advisers are here – the pros and cons of using AI in investing

By Laurence Jones, Bangor University and Heather He, Bangor University 

Artificial intelligence (AI) is shaking up the way we invest our money. Gone are the days when complex tools were reserved for the wealthy or financial institutions.

AI-powered robo-advisers, such as Betterment and Vanguard in the US, and finance app Revolut in Europe, are now democratising investment. These tools are making professional financial insight and portfolio management available to everyone. But although there are plenty of advantages to using robo-advisers, there are downsides too.

Since the 1990s, AI’s role in this sector was typically confined to algorithmic trading and quantitative strategies. These rely on advanced mathematical models to predict stock market movements and trade at lightning speed, far exceeding the capabilities of human traders.

But that laid the groundwork for more advanced applications. And AI has now evolved to handle data analysis, predict trends and personalise investment strategies. Unlike traditional investment tools, robo-advisers are more accessible, making them ideal for a new generation of investors.

A survey published in 2023 showed that there has been a particular surge in young people using robo-advisers. Some 31% of gen Zs (born after 2000) and 20% of millennials (born between 1980 and 2000) are using robo-advisers.

Another survey from 2022 found that 63% of US consumers were open to using a robo-adviser to manage their investments. In fact, projections indicate that assets managed by robo-advisers will reach US$1.8 trillion (£1.4 trillion) globally in 2024.

This trend reflects not only changing investor preferences but also how the financial industry is adapting to technology.

Tailored advice

AI can tailor investment advice to a person’s preferences. For example, for investors who want to prioritise ethical investing in environmental, social and governance stocks, AI can tailor a strategy without the need to pay for a financial adviser.

AI can analyse news and social media to understand market trends and predict potential movements, offering insights into potential market movements. Portfolios built by robo-advisers may also be more resilient during market downturns, effectively managing risk and protecting investments.

Robo-advisers can offer certain features like reduced investment account minimums and lower fees, which make services more accessible than in the past. Other features such as tax-loss harvesting, a strategy of selling assets at a loss to reduce taxes, and periodic rebalancing, which involves adjusting the proportions of different types of investments, make professional investment advice accessible to a wider audience.

These types of innovations are particularly beneficial for people in underserved communities or with limited financial resources. This has the potential to improve financial literacy through empowering people to make better financial decisions.

AI’s multifaced role

AI’s impact on investment fund management goes way beyond robo-advisers, however. Fund managers are using AI algorithms in a variety of ways.

In terms of data analysis, AI can sift through vast amounts of market data and historical trends to identify ideal assets and adjust portfolios in real time as markets fluctuate. AI is also used to improve risk management by analysing complex data and making sophisticated decisions.

By using AI in this way, traders can react and make faster decisions, which maximises efficiency. Other mundane tasks like compliance monitoring are increasingly automated by AI. This frees fund managers up to focus on more strategic decisions.

What are the disadvantages?

One of the biggest concerns regarding AI in this sector is based on how having easy access to advanced investment tools may lead some people to overestimate their abilities and take too many financial risks. The sophisticated algorithms used by robo-investors can be opaque, which makes it difficult for some investors to fully understand the potential risks involved.

Another concern is how the evolution of robo-advisers has outpaced the implementation of laws and regulations. That could expose investors to financial risks and a lack of legal protection. This is an issue yet to be adequately addressed by financial authorities.

Looking ahead, the future of investment probably lies in a hybrid model. Combining the precision and efficiency of AI with the experience and oversight of human investors is vital.

Ensuring that information is accessible and transparent will be crucial for fostering a more informed and responsible investment landscape. By harnessing the power of AI responsibly, we can create a financial future that benefits everyone.The Conversation

About the Author:

Laurence Jones, Lecturer in Finance, Bangor University and Heather He, Lecturer in Data Science/Analytics, Bangor University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Canadian Dollar Seeks Opportunities for Growth

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USDCAD pair remains within a sideways range, with the Canadian dollar occasionally showing a tendency to strengthen.

Recent DES data revealed that Canadian households have become more affluent. In Q4 2023, their “net” worth increased by 1.8%, or 300 billion Canadian dollars, smoothing out the decline seen in the previous quarter.

This increase can be attributed to the recovery in financial market returns, as both stocks and bonds appreciated during the period. This dynamic compensated for the “modest” decline in the country’s housing market value. Overall, Canadians became 712.7 billion CAD richer in 2023 than they were the previous year.

Borrowing rates in Q4 of last year increased for the second consecutive quarter, with households attracting 29.5 billion CAD, primarily in mortgage loans, followed by consumer loans. These figures raise concerns, suggesting that some households may become more indebted than others. Canada’s economy’s loan debt is currently estimated at 2.9 trillion CAD, with three-quarters of these debts being mortgage loans. However, in the economic context, household debt as a percentage of Canadians’ disposable income accounts for 178.7% in Q4, slightly lower than in Q3 of last year and the lowest level since the end of 2015. Thus, while debts exist, the overall picture is relatively stable.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of USDCAD, a declining wave is forming towards 1.3403. Today, we are considering the development of its fifth structure. After reaching the target level, a correction to 1.3511 is possible. Subsequently, we expect the beginning of a new declining structure towards the local target of 1.3354. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below the zero mark and heading strictly downward towards new lows.

On the USDCAD H1 chart, the first structure of the fifth declining wave has been completed. Today, we are considering the possibility of a correction to 1.3488. After its completion, we expect a decline to 1.3454, then a rise to 1.3471 (testing from below), and then a decline to 1.3420. This is the first target. The stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 80 mark and preparing to drop to 20, also confirms this scenario.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Copper Has a Vital Role in the Modern Economy

Source: John Newell  (3/12/24)

John Newell of Golden Sky Minerals (AUEN.V) explains his view on where the copper market is going and shares one stock he believes is an attractive opportunity for forward-thinking investors.

In the heart of today’s technological and sustainable advancements lies an element whose significance has surged alongside our modern needs: copper. Copper’s role in energy transformation has increased attention in the news and social media within the last three years.

This versatile metal sometimes called the metal of electrification, plays a critical role in powering electric vehicles, enabling flights, advancing renewable energy sources like wind and solar, and facilitating essential communications through networks and systems. Its presence is ubiquitous, found in electrical wiring, appliances, motors, and computers, marking it as a cornerstone of innovation and daily life.

The Surge in Demand

As we navigate through an unprecedented energy transition, copper’s demand is projected to approximately double by 2035. This looming increase highlights a stark reality about our mineral resources: they are the unsung heroes of power generation and usage across the globe.

By 2050, the anticipated annual demand for copper is expected to equal the cumulative usage from 1900 through 2022, illustrating a pivotal moment in its consumption history.

As the graph below from John Gross’s Copper Journal suggests, the demand doubles every ~25 years, and by 2050, demand will likely be 53 MM tons, a jaw-dropping number with limited new supply being discovered or currently being brought to market. Electric Power vehicles and renewable power generation require 3x as much copper as traditional options.

Capital Expenditure Requirements

To meet this burgeoning demand, a substantial investment in capital expenditure (capex) is imperative.

An estimated $200 billion will be necessary over the next decade to bridge the forecasted 10 million tonne copper deficit by 2035. This figure not only underscores the financial commitment needed but also the urgency to act promptly to prevent a supply shortfall.

Global Supply and Future Potential

The future of copper production looks promising, with significant potential in countries such as Chile, Peru, the United States, Canada, Ecuador, Argentina, and the Pacific Rim.

Despite this potential, current production and sanctioned projects indicate a looming supply shortage in the second half of this decade. Compounded by the expected copper price forecast of $4.50 a pound from 2025 through 2027 and a long-term price of four dollars, there’s a clear need to incentivize new supply to meet future demands.

Some analysts are suggesting that copper prices are expected to rise by more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal fueled by the push for renewables and demand driven by green energy solutions, according to a report by BMI a Fitch Solutions research unit.

Challenges in Supply

Recent disruptions have already signaled a forthcoming copper deficit in 2024, exacerbated by operational shutdowns and downgrades in production forecasts. Events such as the closure of First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine, operational disruptions in Chile and Peru due to El Niño, and logistical challenges in the DRC highlight the fragile equilibrium of copper supply.

These disruptions have set the stage for a significant, multi-year deficit, with forecasts predicting a rapid transition from a small surplus to a considerable deficit through 2025.
Innovations and Sustainability in Copper Mining

Amid these challenges, innovation and sustainability remain at the forefront of the copper mining industry. Eight world-class mines are leveraging renewable energy to produce low-carbon copper, showcasing initiatives like the Los Azules project by McEwen Mining and McEwen Copper.

These efforts are complemented by companies like Rio Tinto, which invests capital and technology in development-stage projects to enhance recovery and sustainability.

The Imperative of Copper

Copper’s role in our modern economy cannot be overstated. As demand continues to grow, the imperative to find and develop new sources of supply intensifies.

The wisdom of William Sulzer, a former governor of New York, echoes through time, reminding us of the fundamental importance of mining to human progress and civilization. His words from 1938, praising the miner and prospector, serve as a powerful testament to the enduring value of copper and the mineral resources that fuel our advancement and prosperity.

Excerpt from the Sulzer speech:

“Abandon mining and the value of every commodity would be insignificant, humanity would sink back to the barter-and-exchange age, and financial paralysis would lock in its vice-like grasp the industries of mankind.

It would be the greatest calamity that ever befell the human race, and in less than a century, civilization would revert to the barbarism of pre-history, when primitive man knew nothing about copper, gold, silver, iron, lead, zinc and the other mineral resources of Mother Earth.

Those who decry mining are ignorant of history. If they knew anything about metals, they would know that all business, all industry and all human progress depends on mines.

The wealth from mines, from the dawn of time, is the epic of human advancement of man’s heroic march along the path of progress. Show me a people without mines and I will show you a people deep in the mire of poverty and a thousand years behind the procession of civilization. It was the mines that made the greatness of the past, that made the ancient civilizations, that made Egypt great, that made Rome great and, in modern times, that hive made Spain, England and the U.S. rise beyond the dreams of avarice.

The greatest benefactor of the human race has been the prospector. The most beneficent men of all time are the far-seeing men whose brain and brawn developed the Earth’s mineral resources.

These are men who poured the golden streams of mineral wealth into the lap of civilization, into the channels of trade, into the avenues of commerce and into the homes of happiness.

All honor to the miner. All hail the prospector.”

– William Sulzer, a former governor of New York. from a speech delivered in 1938.

McEwen Mining

With all that said, there is one copper stock that may be worth looking into:

McEwen Mining Inc.’s (MUX:TSX; MUX:NYSE).

McEwen Mining owns 47% of McEwen Copper.

The investment case for McEwen Copper’s Los Azules Project in San Juan Province, Argentina, presents a compelling opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the future burgeoning copper market.

This presentation dives into the strategic advantages, potential returns, and innovative approaches that make the Los Azules Project a standout investment in the copper exploration sector.

High Growth Potential

Copper’s role in electrification and renewable energy sectors underlines its growing demand. McEwen Copper, with its Los Azules Project, stands at the forefront of tapping into this demand, offering significant growth potential.

McEwen Copper is the eighth largest undeveloped copper project in the world. Copper demand in 2050 is expected to be 53 million metric tons, more than all the copper consumed from 1900-2022

Geopolitical and Economic Stability

The new Argentine government’s commitment to deregulation under President Javier Milei enhances the investment appeal of the country’s mining sector. This political shift, coupled with the strategic alliance between Argentina and the USA, offers a stable investment climate.

Innovation and Sustainability: McEwen Copper’s approach incorporates cutting-edge technologies and a commitment to environmental sustainability, positioning it as a leader in modern, responsible mining practices.

Robust Market Demand

The shift towards green technology, including renewable energy and electric vehicles, drives an unprecedented surge in copper demand.

This trend is set to continue, bolstering the market value of copper exploration and production companies.

Strategic Hedging

Investing in McEwen Copper offers a hedge against potential declines in the U.S. dollar, leveraging copper’s essential role in various industries and its historical price resilience if Los Azules copper resource is equivalent to ~70 million oz gold deposit, with an average annual production of 600,000 ounces at a cash cost of ~$600.00.

Early-Stage Involvement

Investors have the unique opportunity to engage in the early stages of the Los Azules Project, potentially yielding higher returns compared to investments in established mining operations.

Technological and Environmental Leadership

The Los Azules Project is pioneering in employing renewable energy solutions and carbon-neutral mining technologies, setting a new standard for the mining industry.

Supply Constraints

Key copper-producing regions like Panama and Peru are experiencing dwindling supplies, leading to a projected global deficit by 2024.

This scarcity is exacerbated by environmental and ESG concerns that restrict or make difficult new mining developments in jurisdictions like the U.S.

Price Projections

Analysts from BMI, BMO, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies anticipate copper prices to spike significantly due to the burgeoning deficit, underscoring the lucrative potential of copper investments.

Clean Energy Transition

Copper is indispensable for the clean energy transition, with demand expected to reach 36.6 million metric tons by 2031.

This demand highlights the strategic importance of copper exploration and production.

A New Model for Mining Strategic Partnerships

McEwen Copper is in discussions to raise approximately $100 million for the Los Azules Project, engaging with notable stakeholders like Stellantis NV and Nuton (a Rio Tinto Group venture) to fund feasibility and engineering work.

Sustainable and Innovative Practices

The project is committed to being carbon-neutral, utilizing renewable energy and innovative leaching methods. It represents a significant step forward in environmentally sustainable mining.

Significant Copper Resource: Los Azules is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper projects, with an estimated resource of 37.6 billion lbs of copper, positioning it to be a major player in the copper industry for decades to come.

Conclusion

The Los Azules Project by McEwen Copper Inc. is not just an investment in a mining operation; it’s an investment in the future of copper, a critical component of the global shift towards sustainable energy and technology.

With its innovative approach to mining, significant growth potential, and the strategic geopolitical context of Argentina, Los Azules represents a unique and attractive opportunity for forward-thinking investors.

I do not currently own McEwen Mining or any interest in McEwen Copper.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. John Newell: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

ECB intends to cut rates this spring. The US stock indices grow despite inflation growth

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.61%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.61%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.54%. Despite a slight rise in inflation, stock indices refuse to fall. The bullish consensus in the market is so strong that it is almost unrealistic to turn this train around without a significant negative trigger. It is probably not worth waiting for any changes in the market until the quarterly expiration this Friday.

The market focus will shift to the Fed meeting next week on March 20. If the market does not hear any negative signals from Mr. Powell, the best strategy for the coming months will be to follow the bullish trend and buy risky assets. Currently, markets are pricing the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 1% for next week’s FOMC meeting on March 20, 15% for the next meeting on May 1, and 78% for the subsequent meeting on June 12.

Shares of Oracle (ORCL) jumped by 11.88% on Tuesday after its earnings report beat market expectations on Monday, thanks to a surge in orders for cloud services. The company said that demand for Gen2 AI infrastructure is significantly outstripping supply. Boeing (BA) fell another 4.17% following news that officials in Chile have launched an investigation into a flight traveling from Auckland to Sydney where a violent air shake was reported, resulting in the hospitalization of 10 people and injuries to 50 people. In addition, the CEO of United Airlines told Boeing that it no longer wants to deliver Boeing 737 Max 10 airplanes because of delays in certification.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.84%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.61%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.02%.

There is broad agreement at the European Central Bank to start cutting interest rates in the spring as the fight against inflation is won, according to Governing Council spokesman Francois Villeroy de Galhau. The risk of waiting too long before easing monetary policy and unnecessarily hurting the economy is now equal to the risk of acting too soon and letting inflation recover. Policymakers can act independently of their counterparts at the Federal Reserve and will have ample room to adjust the pace of easing as needed once the process begins, the policymaker said.

WTI crude prices rose to around $78 a barrel on Wednesday, pulling back from two-week lows amid a favorable outlook for global demand. In its monthly report, OPEC said global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.25 million bpd in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025, unchanged from previous estimates. The group also raised its economic growth forecast for the current year, indicating room for improvement. In addition, industry data showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 5.521 million barrels last week, indicating healthy demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.06% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 3.05% on Tuesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.11%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave a slightly gloomier assessment of the economy ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting next week. Ueda told parliament that Japan’s economy is recovering at a moderate pace, although there is weakness in some data. He added that there are various ways to raise the cost of short-term borrowing if the central bank decides to end negative interest rates, but offered few clues. There has been increasing speculation recently that the Bank of Japan could start raising interest rates this month because of rising wages, high inflation, and a robust economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,175.27 +57.33 (+1.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,005.49 +235.83 (+0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 17,965.11 +218.84 (+1.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,747.81 +78.58 (+1.02%)

USD Index 102.93 +0.06 (+0.06%)

Important events today:
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

XAGUSD: Bulls down but not out

By ForexTime

  • H4/D1 upside momentum still in play
  • Prices above 50 EMA & MACD bullish
  • CCI indicator hints possible oversold situation
  • 4 potential targets on H4 timeframe
  • Bullish scenario void below 23.943

After closing over 1% lower in the previous session, Silver kicked off Wednesday on a positive note with bulls not going down without a fight!

The precious metal initially found itself under fresh selling pressure on Tuesday after hotter-than-expected US inflation data dampened hopes around the Fed cutting interest rates in the coming months. It is worth noting that silver often follows gold’s direction, with interest rate bets impacting appetite for non-yielding assets like silver.

Last Friday, traders fully priced in a Fed rate cut by June following the mixed US jobs report.

These odds have now dropped to 75% following the sticky inflation data for February.

Rate cut bets could fall even further if more incoming US data this week support the argument around US rates remaining higher for longer.

Given silver’s zero-yielding nature, such a development may create headwinds down the road for bulls.

Nevertheless, silver is currently in a daily uptrend after breaking out of a ranging period where the price oscillated around a weekly support level at 22.433.

The current price action confirms that a correction wave is presently in progress.

While the current larger economic scenarios may impact the metal’s trajectory, the bullish momentum might not be over yet with prices potentially hitting the next weekly resistance level at 25.919.

On the 4-hour chart an uptrend is also in progress. The consecutively higher top and bottom can clearly be seen, but there has been a flatting of the market structure, signifying a slowdown in momentum. 

The price is however still above the 50 Exponential Moving Average and the longer price cycle Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Oscillators confirms the bullish sentiment by being above the zero base line. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) gives a hint of a possible oversold situation with the potential of an increase in demand on the horizon.

If the price reaches the 24.676 level, a long scenario becomes feasible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 24.676 and dragging it to just below the last bottom at 23.943, four conservative targets can be established:

  • Target 1: at 24.969

  • Target 2: at 25.116

  • Target 3: at 25.409

  • Target 4: at 25.776

If the price breaks past 23.943, this opportunity becomes invalid.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Inflation Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

As of Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is hovering near 1.0925 after experiencing a volatile session, with expectations for a more subdued week ahead.

Recent statistical data highlighted higher-than-expected inflation in the US for February, prompting adjustments to predictions about the easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in June.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month last month, aligning with expectations. Year-on-year, the indicator expanded to 3.2% from 3.1%. Core inflation in the US increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the forecast of 0.3%. From year to year, the indicator rose to 3.8% from the previous 3.7%.

While these figures did not come as a “surprise,” they reaffirmed that inflation is more persistent than previously thought. Specific details of the reports offer local hope for improvement, although it is clear overall that the situation could be more comfortable for the Fed to make significant decisions.

The market interpreted these developments favourably for the US dollar, shifting investor preferences towards it.

Market focus is squarely on the Fed’s June meeting, with the March and May sessions attracting less interest. The Fed will likely require more statistical information by then.

As indicated by public data, investor expectations suggest a 69% chance of a rate cut in June, down from 71% earlier in the week.

In what would be the most optimistic forecast, the Fed will probably manage to cut rates only three times this year.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming the first wave of decline towards 1.0777. The first structure of this wave and its correction have been completed. Today, we will consider the likelihood of breaking the minimum of the first structure and continuing the development of the wave to the local target level of 1.0815. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and a sharply decreasing histogram, indicating the continuation of the downtrend.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has formed the first wave of a decline structure to 1.0900 and a correction to 1.0939. The market has essentially delineated a consolidation range around the level of 1.0939. Today, a decline to the lower boundary of this range is expected. With a breach of 1.0900, a further decline to 1.0880 is anticipated, with the trend potentially continuing to 1.0815. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below the 50 mark, expecting a continuation of the decline towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Commercial Property Prices: Why the Decline May Have Just Started

This index has already retreated 20% since May 2022

By Elliott Wave International

The major bust in property prices 15 to 20 years ago started with the residential real estate market.

This time, the commercial real estate market may have taken the lead. Here are some recent headlines:

  • [“Shark Tank Star”] Says a Coming Real Estate Collapse Will Lead to ‘Chaos’ — Yahoo Finance, Jan. 30
  • Commercial Property Losses Hammer Banks on Three Continents (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 1)
  • Bracing for the commercial real estate ‘reckoning’ — Reuters, Feb. 2

As rough as it’s already been for the commercial real estate market, it appears that “reckoning” is only in its early stages.

Keep in mind, as you review this chart and commentary from the February Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, that progress in a market takes the form of five waves. Once those five waves are complete, a correction is due (Note: The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast is a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets):

This chart of the Green Street Commercial Property Index shows the latest decline, a 20% retreat from May 2022. In terms of time, the 20-month plunge is already close to the 22-month decline from September 2007 to June 2009. … [T]he crumbling demand for commercial space, not to mention the five-wave form of its rise from 1998, suggests that further declines are “baked in.”

The U.S. commercial real estate market is valued at $20 trillion, according to Bloomberg, so the developing crisis is not a minor ordeal.

Part of the reason the full brunt of the crisis has been delayed is that many loans have been granted extensions.

When those mature loans are refinanced, some borrowers could see their interest rates skyrocket. This could set off a wave of defaults.

Business Insider recently quoted an economist who specializes in the property sector (Jan. 23):

“[B]uilding owners are looking to ‘extend and pretend’ but that strategy can’t last forever as there’s still a $2.2 trillion mountain of commercial real estate debt that will mature by 2027.”

Some building owners have already experienced a lot of financial pain. For example, Aon Center — the third-tallest tower in Los Angeles — sold for $147.8 million. That’s 45% less than its 2014 purchase price.

This is just one example of what’s going on in commercial real estate.

Also know that the property and stock markets tend to be correlated.

If you would like to ascertain the trend of the stock market via Elliott wave analysis, you may want to read the Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

[R.N.] Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1; wave 3 is never the shortest wave; wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.

Get more insights into the Wave Principle by reading the entire online version of the book for free.

Just follow the link and you can have the Wall Street bestseller on your computer screen in moments: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Commercial Property Prices: Why the Decline May Have Just Started. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

How Florida’s home insurance market became so dysfunctional, so fast

By Latisha Nixon-Jones, Jacksonville University 

Imagine saving for years to buy your dream house, only to have surging property insurance costs keep homeownership forever out of reach.

This is a common problem in Florida, where average insurance premiums cost homeowners an eye-watering US$6,000 a year. That’s more than triple the national average and about three times what Floridians paid on average for insurance premiums in 2018.

What’s more, several major insurance carriers have left the state over the past year, leaving residents with limited alternatives.

As a law professor who specializes in disaster preparedness and resilience, I think it’s important to understand what’s driving costs higher – not least because other states could soon face a similar predicament.

Three primary factors are driving the insurance challenge. First, natural disasters are becoming more common and costly. Second, the price of reinsurance is skyrocketing. And finally, Florida’s litigation-friendly environment compounds the issue by making it easy for customers to sue their insurers.

Disasters, like sea levels, are on the rise

With its location on the beautiful-yet-hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico, Florida has long been vulnerable to the elements. Natural disasters cost the state $5 billion to $10 billion every year, the federal government estimated in 2018, the last year for which data was available.

Yet that likely understates the case today, since disasters have only become bigger, more common and more expensive since then. For example, climate change has made oceans warmer, which research suggests fuels stronger, more intense hurricanes.

As a result, Florida has experienced billion-dollar disasters an average of four times annually over the past five years – up from about one each year in the 1980s.

This surge in disasters doesn’t just put lives at risk; it also wreaks havoc with the insurance market, as carriers are inundated with claims from one catastrophe after another. This makes it harder for them to turn a profit or obtain reinsurance to protect their stakeholders.

Why reinsurance matters

Insurance companies, in essence, make money two ways. First, they pool risk among policyholders. Risk-pooling is the practice of taking similarly situated individuals or properties, grouping them together, and charging similar prices for insurance since they face the same risk.

Second, they reduce risk by acquiring reinsurance. Reinsurance acts as a safeguard for insurance companies – it’s essentially insurance for the insurers. Reinsurers pledge to cover a specified portion or type of insurance claim – for instance, catastrophic hurricanes – which provides a layer of financial protection.

The new era of climate disasters has thrown a wrench into the process. Reinsurance companies, grappling with a surge in claims due to more frequent and severe disasters, have found themselves forced to raise their premiums for insurance carriers. Carriers, in turn, have passed the burden to policyholders.

To try to navigate these challenges, some companies have chosen to limit coverage for specific types of damage. For example, some insurance companies in Florida will no longer offer hurricane or flood coverage. And in extreme cases, insurance companies have withdrawn entirely from the state.

Understanding this complex relationship between insurers, reinsurers and policyholders is key to understanding the broader implications of the Florida insurance crisis. It underscores the urgent need for comprehensive solutions and collaborative efforts to address evolving challenges in the insurance ecosystem.

Learning from Florida … one way or another

Florida isn’t taking all this sitting down. In December 2022, state lawmakers responded to growing property market instability by passing Senate Bill 2A, a package of insurance reforms.

One major part was a rule change designed to discourage policyholders from suing their insurers. Previously, Florida law let insured individuals recover attorney fees if they secured any amount through litigation against their insurer.

The idea is that making this change will discourage needless lawsuits. However, my research as an environmental justice professor shows that attempts to exclude attorneys from the negotiation process often lead to more expensive litigation and less access to justice.

The bill also restricts assignment of benefits, a mechanism that permits third-party entities like roofing companies to negotiate with insurance companies on behalf of Florida residents. While assignment of benefits increased advocacy, it was also linked to skyrocketing claims costs.

The balancing act between providing ample opportunities and containing costs has sparked debate among justice advocates. Florida’s legislative response reflects an ongoing effort to strike an equilibrium, ensuring fairness and accessibility while addressing the challenges faced by both insurers and policyholders.

Florida’s actions to address the property insurance crisis raise a critical question: Will the state serve as a blueprint for disaster-prone regions, or act as a cautionary tale? After all, states such as California and Louisiana have also seen insurance companies withdrawing from their markets. Will their legislatures draw inspiration from Florida’s?

For now, it’s too early to tell: The policies have only been in place since the latest round of hurricanes. But in the meantime, the rest of the U.S. will be watching – especially policymakers who care about resilience, and those who want to make sure vulnerable populations don’t get the short end of the stick.The Conversation

About the Author:

Latisha Nixon-Jones, Associate Professor of Law, Jacksonville University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Venezuelan migrants are boosting economic growth in South America, says research

By Jose Caballero, International Institute for Management Development (IMD) 

Venezuela is engulfed in a political and economic crisis, which has forced over 6 million people – some 20% of the population – to flee the country since 2015. The mass exodus began when Venezuela’s economy collapsed, giving rise to rampant inflation, political turmoil and pervasive violence.

Over 80% of those who have left Venezuela have set up a new life in 17 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean. According to a recent report, these displaced migrants are having a positive effect on the economies of their host countries.

Between 2017 and 2030, migrant workers will boost the economies of their host countries by 0.10%–0.25% on average each year. The report, which was published by several leading international financial institutions and the UN Agency for Refugees, focuses on Venezuelan migrants but also covers Cubans and Salvadorans, among others.

The economic impact of migrants in Latin America is significant. But their integration into local job markets and society is poor. The economic benefits derived from migrants across Latin America could be even greater if they are given better access to jobs.

Boosting economic growth

Migration has clear economic benefits for local economies. It leads to an expansion of the workforce, thereby alleviating labour shortages and enhancing economic output.

Migrants bring a diverse range of skills and specialised knowledge to their host countries, which can improve the overall skill level of the local workforce. Their productive capabilities bridge skill gaps in local labour markets and heighten overall productivity.

Most migrant workers will also pay income tax, which increases government revenues. In Colombia, for instance, the income tax contribution of Venezuelan migrants in 2019 was approximately US$38.7 million (£30.1 million), equivalent to 0.01% of Colombia’s GDP.

And when migrants gain employment, they will spend their wages in the host country and create new demand in various other sectors. Greater demand leads to higher growth, which in turn attracts more investment and increases employment opportunities both for local people and migrants.

Underemployed

However, xenophobia and discrimination prevent many migrants from finding jobs in Latin America and integrating into society. According to the report, roughly 30% of the migrants residing in Chile, Colombia and Peru experience discrimination because of their nationality.

Thus, many migrants are forced to take jobs within the informal sector. Over 50% of migrants in Latin America work informally compared to 44.5% of locals.

Migrant workers also often earn lower wages than their local counterparts. In Colombia, the average monthly salary of locals with post-secondary school education is US$1,140. Venezuelan migrants with the same level of education earn just US$644 per month.

Despite this, immigrants still outperform the native-born population in their labour force participation and employment rates. Yet many of the migrants who are in formal employment are overqualified for their roles. In Chile, for instance, 34% of highly educated locals are overqualified for their jobs, compared to over 60% of migrants.

Migrants are often mistakenly assumed to be exclusively low-skilled workers. But the Venezuelan migrant crisis has seen many highly skilled people flee the country too. For example, 65% of the Venezuelans living in Chile and 48% residing in Ecuador have post-secondary school education.

However, most Venezuelans have not officially validated their academic credentials in their host countries. In fact, only 10% of those residing in Chile have completed the certification process.

Many migrants are unaware of the process so lack sufficient documentation about their qualifications. And the complexity of the process also demands investment that many migrants may not have the resources to cover.

To further enhance productivity in Latin America, it is essential to integrate migrant workers into professions that allow them to use their skills.

Access to services

Several other factors hinder the integration of migrants into society across Latin America. The report indicates that migrant workers have significantly lower access to health insurance relative to the native-born population. In Colombia, for example, 96% of local workers have access to health insurance, compared to just 40% of migrants.

Similarly, there are often barriers limiting access to education for migrants. Foreign-born residents and their family members have the right to access public primary and secondary education in the majority of South American countries. But school attendance rates are lower among displaced children than among native children, while the propensity for dropping out of school early appears to be significantly higher among migrant children.

Some people argue that immigration comes with costs, such as the perceived notion that migrants deprive locals of jobs. Nevertheless, the contribution of migrants to Latin American economies underscores the potential benefits. Improving their access to labour markets is thus a crucial tool for fostering long-term growth in Latin American economies.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jose Caballero, Senior Economist, IMD World Competitiveness Center, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.