InvestMacro

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (7,956 contracts) with Silver (2,311 contracts), Platinum (1,394 contracts) and Steel (1,074 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,787 contracts) and Palladium (-302 contracts).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Steel (94 percent) lead the metals markets this week and are at or near the top of their ranges. Gold (70 percent) and Copper (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is just at the Extreme-Bearish cutoff (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Platinum (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.2 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (96.5 percent)
Copper (62.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (65.7 percent)
Platinum (41.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (37.2 percent)
Palladium (19.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.8 percent)
Steel (93.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.5 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (47 percent) and Copper (41 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (30.1 percent), Palladium (14 percent) and Steel (8 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (30.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (30.6 percent)
Silver (46.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.3 percent)
Copper (40.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (62.3 percent)
Platinum (0.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (14.0 percent)
Palladium (13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.8 percent)
Steel (7.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 207,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	25.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	70.6	6.1
– Net Position:	207,250	-225,714	18,464
– Gross Longs:	281,399	127,114	48,931
– Gross Shorts:	74,149	352,828	30,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	33.2	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-27.1	-2.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	25.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	66.3	9.1
– Net Position:	53,147	-67,706	14,559
– Gross Longs:	83,565	42,938	29,775
– Gross Shorts:	30,418	110,644	15,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	8.4	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.7	-37.5	-5.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	29.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	39.6	5.1
– Net Position:	20,296	-28,946	8,650
– Gross Longs:	126,866	87,434	23,592
– Gross Shorts:	106,570	116,380	14,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	35.5	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.5	-46.1	56.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	24.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	41.6	4.1
– Net Position:	8,589	-13,982	5,393
– Gross Longs:	45,845	19,311	8,703
– Gross Shorts:	37,256	33,293	3,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	58.1	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	1.2	-7.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	61.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.2	9.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-10,202	10,184	18
– Gross Longs:	4,776	12,013	1,618
– Gross Shorts:	14,978	1,829	1,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	83.1	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.0	7.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	77.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	75.6	0.9
– Net Position:	-714	480	234
– Gross Longs:	3,659	18,460	448
– Gross Shorts:	4,373	17,980	214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.6	6.5	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-7.7	3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

06 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (106,714 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (24,537 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (8,350 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-134,791 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-35,105 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-20,678 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,848 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-4,880 contracts).

Bonds Weekly Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (79 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (30 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (52.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (34.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (35.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (20.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (29.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (28.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (59.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (65.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (78.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (77.2 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 5-Year Bonds (-3 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (17.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (13.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (32.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (15.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-13.3 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 353,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,548 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	55.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	58.4	0.4
– Net Position:	353,085	-343,626	-9,459
– Gross Longs:	1,769,579	5,505,965	25,906
– Gross Shorts:	1,416,494	5,849,591	35,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	21.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	1.0	-1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -73,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 106,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -179,929 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	69.4	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	65.2	2.1
– Net Position:	-73,215	73,836	-621
– Gross Longs:	227,865	1,224,028	36,667
– Gross Shorts:	301,080	1,150,192	37,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	45.4	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-20.0	9.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -934,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -913,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	79.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	57.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-934,574	821,385	113,189
– Gross Longs:	442,394	3,013,756	251,456
– Gross Shorts:	1,376,968	2,192,371	138,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	62.8	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-11.5	-6.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,284,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -134,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	84.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.2	5.1
– Net Position:	-1,284,301	1,183,655	100,646
– Gross Longs:	374,032	5,155,365	410,424
– Gross Shorts:	1,658,333	3,971,710	309,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	88.4	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.9	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -569,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -578,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	65.3	9.1
– Net Position:	-569,957	538,818	31,139
– Gross Longs:	445,011	3,402,179	429,927
– Gross Shorts:	1,014,968	2,863,361	398,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	63.9	80.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-15.2	-8.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -142,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	73.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	63.0	13.8
– Net Position:	-142,994	210,721	-67,727
– Gross Longs:	295,548	1,499,959	214,856
– Gross Shorts:	438,542	1,289,238	282,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	67.0	73.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-18.0	14.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -35,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	69.8	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	68.8	10.9
– Net Position:	-55,690	14,907	40,783
– Gross Longs:	235,043	1,065,632	207,214
– Gross Shorts:	290,733	1,050,725	166,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	20.9	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-11.7	-7.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -313,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	79.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	59.8	11.2
– Net Position:	-313,453	314,753	-1,300
– Gross Longs:	144,656	1,264,584	176,663
– Gross Shorts:	458,109	949,831	177,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	50.7	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	6.1	-20.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

06 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Gasoline & Peso lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 2nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 46.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 53,147 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,311 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gasoline speculator level is now also at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 36.5 this week. The speculator position registered 83,723 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 7,994 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level also resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 19.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 133,730 net contracts this week with a small rise of 1,662 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 96.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 67,482 net contracts this week with a boost of 11,447 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 93.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.6 this week.

The speculator position was -714 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -143,230 net contracts this week with a decline of -14,124 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -34.7 this week. The speculator position was -22,370 net contracts this week with a dip of -402 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,896 net contracts this week with a drop of -1,267 contracts in the speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Australian Dollar speculator level is at a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.7 this week. The speculator position was -102,685 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,767 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Finally, the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 8.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.6 this week. The speculator position was -220,606 net contracts this week with a decrease by -48,562 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (17,036 contracts) with Coffee (11,447 contracts), Lean Hogs (8,408 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,994 contracts), Wheat (1,465 contracts) and Cotton (126 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-8,692 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,854 contracts), Soybeans (-4,326 contracts), Corn (-3,315 contracts) and Cocoa (-2,659 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (97 percent) and Cotton (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (65 percent), Cocoa (44 percent) and Live Cattle (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (9 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is in Wheat (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.9 percent)
Sugar (33.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.9 percent)
Coffee (96.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.2 percent)
Live Cattle (43.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (51.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (65.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (58.2 percent)
Cotton (75.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.4 percent)
Cocoa (44.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.0 percent)
Wheat (25.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (22 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (12 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Sugar (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-11 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Live Cattle (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (9.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (11.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.2 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.2 percent)
Cotton (-4.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (-14.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-13.3 percent)
Wheat (-10.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -181,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	43.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	31.2	10.5
– Net Position:	-181,336	192,640	-11,304
– Gross Longs:	294,298	698,351	159,330
– Gross Shorts:	475,634	505,711	170,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	88.4	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-11.6	7.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	51.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	67.0	7.3
– Net Position:	117,461	-133,030	15,569
– Gross Longs:	196,650	433,097	76,912
– Gross Shorts:	79,189	566,127	61,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	68.7	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.8	14.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	35.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	63.0	2.8
– Net Position:	67,482	-69,399	1,917
– Gross Longs:	90,293	86,645	8,823
– Gross Shorts:	22,811	156,044	6,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.6	6.9	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.7	16.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -158,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	60.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	39.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-158,040	169,140	-11,100
– Gross Longs:	95,389	496,933	52,452
– Gross Shorts:	253,429	327,793	63,552
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	91.6	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.6	0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	44.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	44.8	4.4
– Net Position:	-3,857	-1,239	5,096
– Gross Longs:	117,212	262,783	30,930
– Gross Shorts:	121,069	264,022	25,834
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	71.4	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.1	14.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -38,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	49.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	44.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-38,437	23,944	14,493
– Gross Longs:	92,955	235,819	46,577
– Gross Shorts:	131,392	211,875	32,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	87.2	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-2.1	-8.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	34.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.1	11.7
– Net Position:	60,056	-53,210	-6,846
– Gross Longs:	115,438	104,081	28,519
– Gross Shorts:	55,382	157,291	35,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	57.7	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.8	-11.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 43,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	34.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	46.9	10.5
– Net Position:	43,135	-36,362	-6,773
– Gross Longs:	106,839	98,353	23,519
– Gross Shorts:	63,704	134,715	30,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	37.6	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-21.8	-8.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	36.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	71.0	3.5
– Net Position:	88,765	-97,058	8,293
– Gross Longs:	119,875	105,058	18,390
– Gross Shorts:	31,110	202,116	10,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.5	24.6	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.4	-0.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	35.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	56.7	4.6
– Net Position:	33,671	-39,902	6,231
– Gross Longs:	59,653	64,498	14,675
– Gross Shorts:	25,982	104,400	8,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	52.0	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	12.8	14.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -60,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	35.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	21.1	7.7
– Net Position:	-60,257	59,755	502
– Gross Longs:	119,394	147,382	32,581
– Gross Shorts:	179,651	87,627	32,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	71.1	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	7.5	23.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

06 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (91,317 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (1,921 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (86 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-6,429 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,417 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-626 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is currently the only market with a score below 50 percent (the midpoint of the past three years of positions).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (39.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (69.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (69.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (57.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (58.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (21 percent), the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-12.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (7.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (20.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-47.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-60.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (8.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (5.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -50,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	45.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	31.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,331	53,551	-3,220
– Gross Longs:	67,410	168,474	27,253
– Gross Shorts:	117,741	114,923	30,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.1	6.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 91,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -169,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	70.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-78,122	-20,612	98,734
– Gross Longs:	290,089	1,476,688	275,700
– Gross Shorts:	368,211	1,497,300	176,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	37.1	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-22.6	9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	49.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	70.3	11.9
– Net Position:	16,595	-19,811	3,216
– Gross Longs:	32,106	45,901	14,377
– Gross Shorts:	15,511	65,712	11,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	9.5	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	5.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	57.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	58.1	13.3
– Net Position:	-5,195	-1,570	6,765
– Gross Longs:	65,399	149,038	41,324
– Gross Shorts:	70,594	150,608	34,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	50.8	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.7	33.8	-0.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	76.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	-22,173	11,733	10,440
– Gross Longs:	74,238	363,074	30,378
– Gross Shorts:	96,411	351,341	19,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	28.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-5.1	20.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 86 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	69.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	67.9	12.5
– Net Position:	-2,506	275	2,231
– Gross Longs:	863	11,962	4,386
– Gross Shorts:	3,369	11,687	2,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	36.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-11.5	10.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	88.5	1.3
– Net Position:	-8,405	2,328	6,077
– Gross Longs:	34,826	393,315	11,626
– Gross Shorts:	43,231	390,987	5,549
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.5	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-23.8	2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

05 Apr

Stock indices saw a sharp sell-off yesterday amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials

By JustMarkets

US stock indices opened higher on Thursday on positivity from Wednesday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating his view that it would probably be appropriate to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. But by the end of the trading session, the stock market began a strong selloff amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said inflation is still too high. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said a Fed rate cut may not be needed this year if progress on inflation stalls. At yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was down 1.35%, and the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 1.35%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.40%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes fell to two-week lows, while the Dow Jones Industrials fell to a 2-week low.

The US trade deficit, a key indicator of the country’s economic health, widened to $68.9 billion in February 2024, the highest in ten months. This was up from an upwardly revised $67.6 billion in January, surpassing forecasts of a $67.3 billion deficit. The data reflected a $0.3 billion decline in the goods deficit to $91.4 billion and a $1.6 billion surplus in services to $22.5 billion. Notably, exports rose by 2.3% to a record high of $263 billion, while imports rose 2.2% to $331.9 billion. This data has implications for the dollar index, suggesting a positive trend.

The monthly Nonfarm payrolls labor market report, a crucial economic indicator, is set to be released in the US today. The US economy is expected to have added 205k new jobs in March, maintaining the unemployment rate at 3.9%. However, average hourly earnings are expected to have declined from 4.3% to 4.1% year-over-year. This report will be the focus of investor attention, with many anticipating a soft landing for the economy. If the data set is worse than expected, particularly in terms of wages, it could put pressure on the US dollar, benefiting risk assets and indices. Conversely, if the data set is generally positive, especially if NFP turns out to be hotter than expected, it could delay the likelihood of a rate cut, providing support for the dollar. In such a scenario, indices and gold would come under pressure.

Canada reported a trade surplus of CAD 1.4 billion in February 2024, up from a revised surplus of CAD 0.6 billion in January and well above market forecasts of a CAD 0.8 billion surplus. Exports rose by 5.8% for the month to CAD 66.6 billion.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.02%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.48%.

The minutes of the latest ECB meeting showed that policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation will return to the 2% target and that the case for lower interest rates is strengthening. However, they emphasized that they must wait for further data on wages and service prices before taking any steps.

Escalating geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ efforts to curb supply and strong energy demand forecasts are provoking further oil price rises.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.81%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.45%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held the benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting amid continued price pressures. The latest move came after annual inflation stood at 5.09% in February 2024, almost unchanged from January, after hitting a four-month high of 5.69% in December 2023, remaining within the RBI’s target range of 2-6% in the medium term. The RBI governor reiterated its commitment to bring inflation down to 4% on time and sustainably. The central bank also maintained its economic growth forecast for FY 2025 at 7%, with projections of 7.1% in Q1, 6.9% in Q2, and Q3 and Q4 at 7% each.

Australia’s trade surplus in goods for February 2024 fell to A$7.28 billion from a downwardly revised A$10.06 billion in the previous month, below market forecasts of A$10.4 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since September last year as exports fell and imports rose.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,147.21 −64.28 (−1.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,596.98 −530.16 (−1.35%)

DAX (DE40) 18,403.13 +35.41 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,975.89 +38.45 (+0.48%)

USD Index 104.26 −0.55 (−0.53%)

Important events today:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Apr

Week Ahead: EURCAD ready to breakout?

By ForexTime

Big week for minor currency pair

BoC + ECB rate decisions in focus

EURCAD trapped within 300 pip range

Prices gaining bullish momentum on D1

Bloomberg model: 76% chance EURCAD – (1.45454 – 1.48439)

Key central bank decisions, speeches from policymakers, high-impact data, and earnings announcements by US banks may inject markets with fresh volatility next week:

Sunday, 7th April

CNH: China forex reserves

Monday, 8th April

GER40: Germany industrial production
JPY: Japan current account balance
CHF: SNB President Thomas Jordan speech
SEK: Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen speech
USD: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speech

Tuesday, 9th April

AU200: Australia consumer confidence
CN50: China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
TWN: Taiwan CPI
CHF: SNB Vice Chair Martin Schlegel speech
SEK: Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden speech
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production

Wednesday, 10th April

CAD: BoC rate decision
JP225: Japan PPI
NZD: RBNZ rate decision
TWN: Taiwan trade
NAS100: US March CPI, FOMC minutes, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech

Thursday, 11th April

CN50: China CPI, PPI
EUR: ECB rate decision
US30: US initial jobless claims, PPI, New York Fed President John Williams, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speech
GBP: BOE policymaker Megan Greene speech
SEK: Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson speech

Friday, 12th April

CAD: Canada existing home sales
CNH: China trade
GER40: Germany CPI
JP225: Japan industrial production
NZD: New Zealand food prices, PMI
UK100: UK industrial production, Manufacturing production, Trade balance, GDP (MoM)
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
US500: Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo earnings

The spotlight shines on the EURCAD which has been trapped within a 300-pip range since December 2023.

Given how the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate decisions have the potential to rock the minor currency, a major breakout may be on the horizon.

Here are 3 reasons why:

1) BoC rate decision

The Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5% on Wednesday.

When considering the two consecutive downside surprises in inflation, expectations are rising over the central bank cutting interest rates in summer. Nevertheless, much attention will be directed towards the policy statement for fresh insight into the central bank’s future rate decisions.

Traders are currently pricing in a 72% probability of a 25-basis point BoC cut by June 2024 with a move fully priced in by July.

Should the BoC hint that a rate cut could be on the horizon, the CAD is likely to weaken – boosting the USDCAD as a result.

If the BoC signals that more time may be needed before rates are lowered, this could lend support to the CAD – dragging the USDCAD lower.

2) ECB rate decision

Markets widely expect the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

Back in March, the European Central Bank signalled that interest rates could be cut by June after lowering its forecast for inflation. So much focus will be on Lagarde’s press conference for additional clues on future policy moves, especially after inflation fell to 2.4% in March – its lowest rate in more than two years.

Traders are currently pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by June with a move fully priced in by July.

A dovish sounding ECB that confirms that rates will be cut in June may hit the euro, sending the EURCAD lower.

If the ECB sounds more hawkish than expected, the euro may jump – pushing the EURCAD higher.

3) Technical forces

EURCAD seems to be gaining bullish momentum on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

A solid breakout above 1.4700 may trigger a move towards 1.4750 which has proved a tough nut to crack. Should bulls secure a solid daily close above this level, it could open the doors towards 1.4850.

Should prices drop below the 100-day SMA at 1.4665, this could trigger a selloff towards the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA at 1.4620. Below this point, will be the low at 1.4545.

The Bloomberg FX model now forecasts a 76% chance that EURCAD will trade within the 1.45454 – 1.48439 range through next week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Apr

AUD takes a pause after rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

After three days of significant gains, the Australian dollar is retreating against its American counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair falling to 0.6573.

The US dollar has rebounded after Federal Reserve officials expressed doubts about an immediate monetary policy easing. The discussion around interest rates and the timing of their reduction has become a central topic in the market. Signals that the Fed is prepared to cut rates three times this year, making borrowing costs more affordable, have put pressure on the US dollar, allowing other currencies to recover. However, signs that the Federal Reserve is still awaiting more data before deciding have led to a rebound in the USD and a decline in overall market sentiment.

Australia’s statistical data revealed that import volumes grew by 4.8% month-over-month in February, compared to a previous increase of 1.4%. Export volumes decreased by 2.2% month-over-month, with January’s figure at 1.5%. The positive trade balance in February was the lowest in five months, primarily due to a drop in overseas shipments of iron ore.

For the third consecutive meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% annually, its highest level in 12 years. Meanwhile, the RBA has omitted any mention of potential rate hikes from its comments, confident in reducing inflationary pressure. This has led to forecasts that borrowing costs in Australia may decrease later this year.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave to 0.6480 and a correction to 0.6617 have been completed. We expect the start of a new decline to 0.6422. The first structure of the decline is forming today, targeting 0.6520. After completing this, we anticipate a consolidation range. Exiting this range downward could lead to a wave towards 0.6472, potentially extending the trend down to 0.6422. The MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero, supports this scenario, expecting new lows.

On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave structure to 0.6520 is forming. Following this, a correction to 0.6572 is anticipated, and a decline to 0.6490, with the trend continuing to 0.6422, is expected. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 20 but poised to rise to 50, technically supports this scenario.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Apr

EUR/USD surges following Powell’s remarks on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair moved upward to 1.0844 on Thursday, marking an unexpected shift following a period of strong US dollar performance. This change in dynamics can be attributed to investors’ positive response to comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future of interest rates. Powell’s remarks led to a surge in risk appetite, resulting in the dollar’s decline.

Powell indicated that economic indicators would heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rate adjustments. Traders interpreted his comments as suggesting that, given the recent modest nature of US economic data, the anticipated forecast of three rate cuts in 2024, starting in June, remains on the table. The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points by the year’s end, which aligns with earlier statements from the Fed. These hinted at a majority consensus among monetary policy committee members to commence rate cuts within the year, contingent on economic data.

Powell’s reaffirming the Fed’s trajectory towards lower interest rates, with specific timing depending on upcoming data, sets the stage for March’s closely watched US employment market reports. The focus will be on whether the unemployment rate has remained steady and whether there has been any deceleration in the growth of average wages.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a correction to 1.0783, with a narrow consolidation range now established around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a continuation of the correction to 1.0847, potentially followed by a new downward wave to 1.0694. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is below zero and the histogram peaks, suggesting a potential sharp decline.

The H1 chart reveals a corrective pattern towards 1.0847, with an expected shift towards 1.0783 to commence a decline phase. A new consolidation range at these levels could lead to further correction to 1.0888 or a downward wave to 1.0694 upon a breakout. The Stochastic oscillator, positioned above 80, anticipates a significant drop to the 50 mark, potentially leading to further declines.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Apr

America’s green manufacturing boom, from EV batteries to solar panel production, isn’t powered by renewable energy − yet

By James Morton Turner, Wellesley College

Panasonic’s new US$4 billion battery factory in De Soto, Kansas, is designed to be a model of sustainability – it’s an all-electric factory with no need for a smokestack. When finished, it will cover the size of 48 football fields, employ 4,000 people and produce enough advanced batteries to supply half a million electric cars per year.

But there’s a catch, and it’s a big one.

While the factory will run on wind and solar power much of the time, renewables supplied only 34% of the local utility Evergy’s electricity in 2023.

In much of the U.S., fossil fuels still play a key role in meeting power demand. In fact, Evergy has asked permission to extend the life of an old coal-fired power plant to meet growing demand, including from the battery factory.

With my students at Wellesley College, I’ve been tracking the boom in investments in clean energy manufacturing and how those projects – including battery, solar panel and wind turbine manufacturing and their supply chains – map onto the nation’s electricity grid.

The Kansas battery plant highlights the challenges ahead as the U.S. scales up production of clean energy technologies and weans itself off fossil fuels. It also illustrates the potential for this industry to accelerate the transition to renewable energy nationwide.

The clean tech manufacturing boom

Let’s start with some good news.

In the battery sector alone, companies have announced plans to build 44 major factories with the potential to produce enough battery cells to supply more than 10 million electric vehicles per year in 2030.

That is the scale of commitment needed if the U.S. is going to tackle climate change and meet its new auto emissions standards announced in March 2024.

The challenge: These battery factories, and the electric vehicles they equip, are going to require a lot of electricity.

Producing enough battery cells to store 1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity – enough for 2 to 4 miles of range in an EV – requires about 30 kWh of manufacturing energy, according to a recent study.

Combining that estimate and our tracking, we project that in 2030, battery manufacturing in the U.S. would require about 30 billion kWh of electricity per year, assuming the factories run on electricity, like the one in Kansas. That equates to about 2% of all U.S. industrial electricity used in 2022.

Battery belt’s huge solar potential

A large number of these plants are planned in a region of the U.S. South dubbed the “battery belt.” Solar energy potential is high in much of the region, but the power grid makes little use of it.

Our tracking found that three-fourths of the battery manufacturing capacity is locating in states with lower-than-average renewable electricity generation today. And in almost all of those places, more demand will drive higher marginal emissions, because that extra power almost always comes from fossil fuels.

However, we have also been tracking which battery companies are committing to powering their manufacturing operations with renewable electricity, and the data points to a cleaner future.

By our count, half of the batteries will be manufactured at factories that have committed to sourcing at least 50% of their electricity demand from renewables by 2030. Even better, these commitments are concentrated in regions of the U.S. where investments have lagged.

Some companies are already taking action. Tesla is building the world’s largest solar array on the roof of its Texas factory. LG has committed to sourcing 100% renewable solar and hydroelectricity for its new cathode factory in Tennessee. And Panasonic is taking steps to reach net-zero emissions for all of its factories, including the new one in Kansas, by 2030.

More corporate commitments can help strengthen demand for the deployment of wind and solar across the emerging battery belt.

What that means for US electricity demand

Manufacturing all of these batteries and charging all of these electric vehicles is going to put a lot more demand on the power grid. But that isn’t an argument against EVs. Anything that plugs into the grid, whether it is an EV or the factory that manufacturers its batteries, gets cleaner as more renewable energy sources come online.

This transition is already happening. Although natural gas dominates electricity generation, in 2023 renewables supplied more electricity than coal for the first time in U.S. history. The government forecasts that in 2024, 96% of new electricity generating capacity added to the grid would be fossil fuel-free, including batteries. These trends are accelerating, thanks to the incentives for clean energy deployment included in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Looking ahead

The big lesson here is that the challenge in Kansas is not the battery factory – it is the increasingly antiquated electricity grid.

As investments in a clean energy future accelerate, America will need to reengineer much of its power grid to run on more and more renewables and, simultaneously, electrify everything from cars to factories to homes.

That means investing in modernizing, expanding and decarbonizing the electric grid is as important as building new factories or shifting to electric cars.

Investments in clean energy manufacturing will play a key role in enabling that transition: Some of the new advanced batteries will be used on the grid, providing backup energy storage for times when renewable energy generation slows or electricity demand is especially high.

In January, Hawaii replaced its last coal-fired power plant with an advanced battery system. It won’t be long before that starts to happen in Tennessee, Texas and Kansas, too.

About the Author:

James Morton Turner, Professor of Environmental Studies, Wellesley College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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