InvestMacro

On Wednesday, US stock indices closed in the red amid the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.61%. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.08%, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ (US100) edged up by 0.03%. The primary trigger for the decline was new reports of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, which sparked a surge in WTI oil prices to $87 per barrel, despite the IEA’s emergency decision to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Published inflation data (CPI) for February aligned with analysts’ expectations, showing a 2.4% year-on-year increase. Nevertheless, the bond market reacted with rising Treasury yields as traders fear that the March spike in gasoline prices and logistical chaos will make February’s figures a “relic of the past.” The probability that the Fed will refrain from rate cuts throughout 2026 has risen to 19.3%, with the first potential policy easing now shifted to September.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) showed strong appreciation, rising above the 1.36 mark against the US dollar. The main growth driver was the sustained high cost of WTI crude, which consolidated above $87 per barrel during trading, highlighting Canada’s status as the most stable and secure energy supplier for the North American region. The “loonie” received additional support from the contrast between US and Canadian macroeconomic data. While the US labor market showed signs of cooling (an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs leading to a drop in the Dollar Index), the Canadian economy appears more resilient. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in early 2026, a 16-month low.

European stock markets turned sharply downward, almost entirely erasing the optimism of the previous session. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.37%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.53%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.56% lower yesterday. The primary pressure factor was the growing positive correlation between stocks and government bonds: investors sold off both asset classes amid fears that the energy shock would lead to a prolonged period of high inflation, forcing the ECB to hike rates.

The Swiss franc (CHF) traded around 0.78 against the US dollar on Wednesday, continuing to hold near record highs. Its “safe-haven” status ensured a powerful capital inflow for the franc amid the twelfth day of active hostilities in Iran and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are ignoring risky assets in favor of the Swiss currency, viewing it as protection against global uncertainty. However, for the Swiss economy itself, such strength in the national currency is becoming a serious challenge. In response, the SNB moved from words to action: sight deposit data indicate that the regulator has already begun conducting foreign exchange interventions, buying foreign currency to weaken the franc.

On Thursday, the oil market entered a phase of extreme volatility: WTI futures jumped to $95 per barrel, gaining more than 8% in a single session. This rapid rise occurred against the backdrop of dramatic news from Iraq, where authorities were forced to completely suspend operations at oil terminals. The cause was attacks on two tankers in Iraqi territorial waters – the vessels were struck by explosive-laden drone boats and caught fire. This incident clearly confirmed that the risk zone in the Persian Gulf has expanded far beyond the Strait of Hormuz, encompassing the region’s key export hubs. The market’s reaction to the IEA’s decision to release 400 million barrels proved short-lived. Investors quickly concluded that even such massive interventions are merely a “temporary bandage” against the backdrop of a full blockade of the strait and production cuts by leading regional producers who no longer have storage space for oil that cannot be exported. The situation is exacerbated by Iran’s hawkish rhetoric: the republic’s military command openly warned the world of the prospect of $200 per barrel oil if the US and Israel do not cease their strikes.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.43% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.98%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.24%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.59% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, a wave of sell-offs swept the Australian stock market: the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell by 1.3%, breaking a two-day recovery period. Investors were spooked by the new round of rising oil prices, which, combined with hawkish rhetoric from RBA officials, made an interest rate hike next week almost inevitable. As a result, the market instantly repriced the odds of a March 17 rate hike: the probability is now estimated at 75% (up from 30% at the start of the week). The country’s largest banks, including CBA, Westpac, and ANZ, simultaneously revised their predictions, expecting rate hikes in March and May to a peak level of 4.35%.

On Tuesday, the US stock market concluded the session with a slight decline. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.07%, and the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.21%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) managed a marginal gain of 0.01%. Investors found themselves in a state of uncertainty: the initial optimism sparked by President Trump’s claims of a swift end to the military operation met a harsh reality following clarifications from the White House. Official confirmation that naval escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet commenced, combined with reports of a potential Iranian mining threat, forced traders to remain cautious and partially rotate into cash.

Market attention has now shifted entirely to the upcoming inflation data. Traders fear that the recent spike in energy prices has already permeated macroeconomic indicators, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer than previously anticipated.

European equity markets mostly trended higher. The German DAX (DE40) surged by 2.39%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.79%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped to 3.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 1.59% higher. The primary catalyst for the optimism in Frankfurt was Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, which led to a retreat in oil prices and eased fears of runaway inflation in the Eurozone.

However, the WTI oil market became an arena for intense informational warfare. After a morning slump to $80 per barrel, triggered by Trump’s “peaceful” tweets, quotes rebounded sharply to close near $87. This reversal followed an official statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which labeled Washington’s claims of an imminent end to the war as “false,” promising to block regional oil exports until US and Israeli strikes cease entirely. The situation intensified as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, overseeing Operation “Epic Fury,” called Tuesday the “most intense day of airstrikes” since the conflict began, signaling a phase of systematic destruction of Iran’s industrial and naval infrastructure. The IEA has proposed a record-breaking release of strategic oil reserves; however, the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a collapse in production from major Middle Eastern producers. This creates a supply deficit that reserves cannot fully offset, driving investors toward silver and other metals as a hedge against stagflation.

Asian markets also rebounded yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.88%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 1.06%, the Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 2.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.09%. Drivers for this optimism included strong corporate news and trade statistics from mainland China. China’s trade data for January-February 2026 continues to impress, with exports growing by a record 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. However, these strong figures also breed caution; investors worry that Beijing may view the economy as sufficiently resilient and delay further stimulus measures, especially given the recently announced 4.5-5.0% GDP target – the lowest in decades.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) made an impressive leap to 0.716-0.718 USD, its highest level in nearly four years. This was driven by a sharp revision in interest rate expectations. The market reacted to signals from the RBA: the probability of a rate hike on March 17 skyrocketed from 30% to 75% in just days. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed that the spike in fuel prices (with petrol exceeding $2.15 per liter in major cities) poses a significant risk to inflation expectations, which already sit above the 23% target range.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) stabilized at 0.593-0.594 USD on March 11, 2026, holding weekly highs. This rise reflects a hawkish shift in investor sentiment. While the RBNZ signaled rate stability at 2.25% as recently as February, the March energy shock has forced the market to price in imminent tightening. Leading banks such as Westpac and BNZ have revised their inflation prognosis upward, expecting the CPI to remain within the upper 3.0% target boundary for most of 2026.

The US stock market concluded Monday’s session with gains. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.50%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.83%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) increased by 1.38%. The morning collapse, fueled by fears of stagflation, turned into a rally following statements by Donald Trump that the active phase of the war with Iran is “practically over” and that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening for tankers. This triggered a drop in WTI oil prices to $86 per barrel, removing the short-term threat of an energy collapse. The primary growth driver was the technology sector, where shares of AMD and Broadcom soared over 4.6% amid strong AI chip revenue predictions (Broadcom expects more than $100 billion in 2027). While the banking sector (Wells Fargo, Citigroup) remained under pressure due to private credit default risks, investors actively bought up discounted growth stocks.

On Tuesday, the Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized at 17.8 per dollar, breaking its fall toward seven-week lows. The rebound was sparked by Mexico’s February inflation data, which accelerated to 4.02%, breaching the central bank’s upper target threshold for the first time in a year. Despite local support, the peso remains a hostage to external shocks: the 10% global US tariffs and the war in the Middle East create a toxic backdrop for emerging market currencies. Although expensive oil bolsters Mexico’s budget, the peso’s status as a “proxy” for global risk makes it extremely vulnerable to every new wave of flight to the dollar.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the psychological $70,000 mark, gaining about 2% amid a sharp improvement in market sentiment. The upward momentum was provided by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, who described the war with Iran as “practically over” and predicted a swift resolution to the conflict. The digital assets market recovery synchronized with a powerful rally in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.8% to exceed 54,000 points. Altcoins followed the lead: Ether (ETH) returned to the $2,130 level, while Solana (SOL) stabilized near $91 ahead of the major Alpenglow network update later this month.

European stock markets mostly declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.86%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.34% lower. The primary pressure came from the escalation of US and Israeli strikes on Iranian refineries, which paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and sparked fears of a new inflationary spiral. Consequently, traders began pricing in ECB rate hikes. The transport and industrial sectors suffered most: Lufthansa shares fell 7.3% due to soaring jet fuel prices, while tire manufacturer Continental fell 4.4%. Automakers (Volkswagen, Porsche) also finished in the red due to global supply chain risks.

Silver (XNG) recouped most of its morning losses, stabilizing at $83.9 per ounce. Earlier in the session, quotes had collapsed nearly 6%, testing key support near $80 due to a sharp strengthening of the dollar and oil prices spiking above $100. The dual nature of the metal, as a safe haven and an industrial commodity, created conflicting flows: while geopolitical tension supported haven demand, the threat of a global recession and reduced industrial consumption (which accounts for 60% of silver demand) exerted powerful downward pressure.

WTI oil prices performed a dizzying turnaround, collapsing nearly 4% by the end of the day to $87 per barrel. This followed an earlier surge to $120 on news of production paralysis in Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. The market cooled rapidly thanks to a coordinated statement from G7 Finance Ministers regarding readiness for massive strategic reserve interventions, effectively guaranteeing the replenishment of any short-term supply deficits.

Asian markets were also under a sell-off yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 5.20% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.47%, the Hang Seng (HK50) shed 1.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) closed down at 2.85%.

China’s trade surplus soared to a record $213 billion, with exports growing by 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. These figures significantly exceeded analyst prognosis and confirmed China’s status as a global manufacturing hub capable of scaling volumes even during periods of instability.

The Australian dollar (AUD) corrected to 0.70 against the US dollar on Tuesday, losing about 0.7% following the retreat in oil prices. As a “commodity” currency, the aussie faced pressure as brent fell to $91.37 and WTI to $86. This occurred after Donald Trump announced the military operation against Iran was significantly ahead of schedule, calling it “very complete” and predicting further fuel price declines. Domestic Australian statistics presented a mixed picture: the Westpac Index rose 1.2% to 91.6, while the NAB Business Confidence Index plummeted to 1, its first negative reading since April 2025.